Welcome to September 2012

Back at the start of August I went through the remaining 4 rounds of the season and predicted the top 8. I ended up with this:


Relevant Ladder after round 23
1 Sydney
2 Adelaide
3 Collingwood
4 Hawthorn
5 Geelong
6 North
7 Fremantle
8 West Coast
9 St Kilda
10 Carlton
11 Richmond
12 Essendon

Not too shabby really. I got the top8 nailed, top 4 too, but just got the order out of whack. Still not too unhappy with it.

Moving on, there are four cracking matches this week:

Hawks v Pies - it should be a good match between the two teams who fought out a classic prelim last year. Hawks having clawed their way to top spot by defeating the Swans in Sydney a couple of weeks ago, the Pies (and Cloke) finding form by beating Essendon. But really, the Hawks are taking all the form in. They've beaten not only the Swans but West Coast, and the Pies recently, and apart from an after the siren loss to their nemesis Geelong they haven't lost since the debacle in May versus Richmond. And they've missed Buddy for 6 weeks in that run. The Pies have been scratchy for awhile, including the win against the Bombers, with losses to fellow finalists North and West Coast.


Whilst Cloke's performance, and the Pies' midfield was good versus Essendon, lets face it, they should be, its only Essendon and they have been shocking for the second half of the season. The Hawks really should win this just on form. Still, the Pies are a class team and can definitely upset. 


Crows v Swans - another great game. The Crows have been solid all year without being spectacular, largely because they've played substandard teams more often than not. On paper they look fantastic with a potent midfield which can break lines, two big form targets up forward, and a team immersed in the previous coach's defensive traits. The Swans have generally taken all before them this year, although have hardly had the best finals lead in with losses to fellow finalists the Hawks and Cats in consecutive weeks. 


The big factor in this game could well be the Crows impressive record against the Swans; 8 wins from the last 9 games. AAMI may well be a factor too, but the Swans only win in those 9 games was over in SA. 
I think the Swans are a very good, honest team who put in every week, but their mids have tailed off and the outside run of Jetta has disappeared and Grundy suspended doesn't help the match up on Tippett and Walker, so I'm going to back Adelaide with that impressive record v the Swans.


Cats v Dockers - Intriguing  match. Yes its over here, and it is the amazing Geelong footy club, but there is something pretty impressive about this Freo team. The Cats are in pretty good form, dropping only the one game in the last 7, but interestingly for the year they've never won 4 in a row. And yep, win this one and they get to 4 in a row. In that run they've beaten the Swans, Hawks and Adelaide, so pretty decent opposition and only just lost to West Coast in WA. 


Geelong is the better team, and its at the MCG (Freo beat Richmond but lost to the Pies there this year), but Freo has Sandilands, and he exposes Geelong's greatest weakness, the ruck. I'll back Geelong because they are better as a team, but really Freo is very much in this.


Eagles v Roos - Probably the most clear cut of all matches. Quite simply the Eagles are a very good side, and they are significantly favoured by being at home. And Cox and Nic Nat and this game really should be a gimmie to the Eagles. 


North has a good ruckman in Goldstein but he was slaughtered by Mumford and Pyke last week (although could have been hurt during the game), and Cox and Nic Nat are even more formidable. Still if the Roos have watched vision of the Hawks, Gale and Roughy last week who were also slaughtered in the hit outs, but with clever play negated the effectiveness of those hit outs, the Roos might be a chance...a very slim chance. Eagles for me. 


So in true long range forecast mode...


Week 2 will see the Swans play the Cats at ANZ. So hard to pick this one. The Cats are in better form and have just beaten the Swans, but will travel be a factor? And history is all for the Swans; only twice have teams been knocked out in straight sets from the top 4. I'm going Sydney just because I can't see them losing 4 in a row (2  regular season and this would be the second final). And whilst the Cats have form, their season suggests their not quite good enough to get 5 in a row.


Pies will play the Eagles, and it should be an absolute classic. The Eagles recently belted the Pies at Pattersons and the Pies form is pretty patchy. In that victory Cox and Nic Nat smashed Wood, and I just can't see it being any different this time, even with Jolly in the side instead. Form will kill the Pies and lift the Eagles (and yes go against history). Pies out in straight sets


Week 3 gives us Hawks v Sydney at the G and really it is about the ground more than anything else. The Swans can't play it and will have no chance against the Hawks who love the space the G provides. The Hawks beat the Swans at the SCG playing close in contested footy just like the Swans love too, so I can't see them dropping this.


Adelaide v West Cost in the second prelim, at AAMI, is a toss up. In Jacobs Adelaide has someone to combat the Eagles pair of rucks, and Adelaide has already beaten then easily in Adelaide once this year. I'll stick with the Crows.


So the Grand Final is the battle of the top 2, Hawks v Crows. Whilst Adelaide has Tippett and Walker, and the Hawks are apparently susceptible to big forwards, the Hawks also have the best team defence in their defensive 50. They showed it v the Eagles last week and their tall forwards didn't do anything (well Darling got 3 goals but all crumbing types). Add the G factor, and I can't see an interstate team beating a local side. The last time it happened was when Brisbane beat the Pies in 03, and this Adelaide side aint no Brisbane of the turn of the century. So Hawks to win the Granny.


But man that is a lot of speculation. So many games could go either way and anything is possible. 

Should he stay or should he go?

I'm a little loathe to go back to Carlton after my assessment a month or so back, but with their loss to the Gold Coast, how could I not?

The only real topic of interest is Ratten. Carlton lost, the players proved mentally fragile losing the unlosable game, and if anything it just backs up my earlier comments. However, I've been there and done that, I'm much more interested in Ratten.

I fully expect Carlton to sack him next week (pointless to do it with one game to go), and I fully expect Malthouse to be sounded out this week and contracts finalised so that he can be announced very soon after Ratten's dismissal. But should they sack him?

Yes!
He can't coach. He doesn't inspire his troops (evidence most severely demonstrated on the weekend). He doesn't have tactical nous. He hasn't built a decent list. He relies on his best players to drag his team over the line, and he may well hinder them. His team has gone backwards from 5th last year to out of the 8 this year. Carlton doesn't suffer disappointing results and the coach is always at fault when they happen.

There is no doubt that Carlton will be disappointed with the season that has befallen them, however perhaps its their disillusionment that they should rectify, not their coach.

No!
You know what, Ratten actually took this list to 5th. That is quite impressive when you think about it, and it was without Kreuzer as he was recovering from a knee injury. Speaking of injury (and depth) when they lost Murphy and Carrazzo for a long stint in the same part of the season they lost 2 of their best 4 mids (Judd and Simpson being the others). Murphy had stepped from Judd's shadow to become their best player, and Carrazzo had continued to raise his game to the almost elite level. Part of that is their own talent, but maybe, just maybe part of it is coaching. Needless to say those two injuries, more than any others they had, caused the beginning of the end. And neither was Ratten's fault.

When the Blues just looked about back on track they lost Judd for 4 weeks and all looked lost but its a credit to him that they actually did OK. They won 3 of 4 beating the Dogs (As they should have), the Tigers (which was an excellent win), Brisbane (as they should) and lost to Sydney which is no shame whatsoever. Judd comes back and they wipe the floor with Essendon...4 wins from 5 matches. And lets not forget Simpson was missing for some of those too.

Then they lost to Gold Coast. It quite simply shouldn't have happened. But was it Ratten's fault? No, it wasn't. The blame falls squarely onto the players. They are the ones who got ahead of themselves and they are the ones who couldn't execute skills. 31 scoring shots to 23 and they lose (by 12 no less), 74 more disposals, 21 more hit outs, 23 more inside 50s! This is a game that should not have been lost, but it was, because of the players....

This is a Bomber Thompson moment for the Carlton footy club. Will they back their man in and respect that it isn't his fault and they've overrated the list massively, or will they make the easy cut?

For the record he doesn't deserve to go on the back of this season, but if Malthouse is available, he has the runs on the board and the Blues should get him.

The run home 2012

So there are 4 rounds to go and anything is possible, well almost anything. There are some givens, like the following teams will not make the finals: Carlton, Richmond, Brisbane, Port, Dogs, Dees, Suns and Giants.

The top 4 is settled: Sydney, Adelaide, Collingwood and Hawthorn will be the top 4. Geelong would need some unexpected results to make it and the Eagles are gone. However, the order is far from settled.

The Cats and West Coast are certainties, although West Coast looks shot and can't win the flag.

Which leaves 2 spots to be won from Essendon, North, St Kilda and Fremantle.

So who is going to make up the top 8? Here are the key games which will impact the finals (assuming finals teams aren't ridiculously upset):

Round 20
WC v Geelong - Geelong is flying, WC struggling. But its over in Perth and Geelong has a habit of losing after classic Hawks games, such is their emotional and physical investment, against decent teams. Really tough one to pick, but I'll have to back the Cats on form.

Adelaide v Fremantle - It's in Adelaide and the Crows are doing enough, but Freo has kicked up a gear and this one could easily be an upset. If Adelaide wins, they finish top 2 as the rest of their games are gimmies, but I reckon Freo's form gives them the win.

Swans v Pies - Swans are just taking all before them. The lose of Bolton will hurt, but the Pies seem to be doing just enough and not much more. I reckon the Swans will break their hoodoo because they're form is just so much better.

Bombers v North - Massive game for both clubs. Winner may well guarantee themselves a top 8 spot. Essendon showed a bit against Adelaide, and almost pinched it. I'm not sure if that says a lot about the Bombers or the Crows though. North, they just keep winning. I'll back their form in this one.


Relevant Ladder after round 20
1 Sydney
2 Hawthorn
3 Adelaide
4 Collingwood
5 Geelong
6 West Coast
7 North
8 Fremantle
9 Essendon
10 St Kilda
11 Carlton

Round 21
Geelong v Saints - Cats are just the better side, so they'll win. Sure the Perth travel factor is a big one and its at Etihad, but it would be a big upset for the Saints to win.

Essendon v Carlton - I've knocked Carlton a lot, but they may well have a few back, including Judd. Their form will lift, and Essendon keeps losing players to injury. Think the Blues will win, but nothing in it.

Pies v North - This game is a fascinating one for me. The Pies are lacklustre, and North seems to be flying, but you have to back the Pies for class. An upset wouldn't surprise though and would really make people take notice of North. Can't see the Pies losing two in a row either

Relevant Ladder after round 21

1 Sydney
2 Hawthorn
3 Adelaide
4 Collingwood
5 Geelong
6 West Coast
7 North
8 Fremantle
9 Essendon
10 Carlton
11 St Kilda

Round 22
Richmond v Essendon - The Tigers have lifted and Essendon continue to spiral. This is the nail for Essendon's season.

Sydney v Hawks - Huge game for the Hawks, and one I can't see them winning on the small SCG. It's too tight for the uncontested, spreading style they favour. Swans will win. If the Hawks get the upset then its top 2 for them.

WC v Pies - Pies are just too good and WC has been unconvincing. It could easily be won by the Eagles as its in Perth, but interstate trips hold no fear for the Pies. Pies to win and get back on track.

North v Freo - Its in Melbourne, so North will win and continue their remarkable run.


Relevant Ladder after round 22

1 Sydney
2 Adelaide
3 Collingwood
4 Hawthorn
5 Geelong
6 West Coast
7 North
8 Fremantle
9 Carlton
10 St Kilda
11 Essendon

Round 23
Carlton v St Kilda - Massive game, but ultimately a battle for 9th. Saints.

Pies v Bombers - Bombers gone. Pies win.

Hawks v WC - Its at the MCG so I can't see the Eagles winning. Hawks too good there.

Cats v Sydney - Absolutely fascinating game! Its at Skilled so Geelong is the obvious tip, but the Swans will be on a massive streak, and can beat them there. I'll tip the Cats, but just.

Relevant Ladder after round 23
1 Sydney
2 Adelaide
3 Collingwood
4 Hawthorn
5 Geelong
6 North
7 Fremantle
8 West Coast
9 St Kilda
10 Carlton
11 Richmond
12 Essendon

So there it is. My best guess of how the season finishes. Round 1 of the finals, Sydney v Hawks, Adelaide v Pies, Cats v West Coast, North v Freo.

Of course, so many of those games could go either way, especially those involving the top 4. Swans v Hawks, Swans v Pies, WC v Pies, WC v Cats, Pies v North are all massive and will hugely influence the ladder.

Why Carlton can't win the flag

We already know 2012 is a write off for Carlton. Firstly they are 7 wins and 8 losses with the following 7 games to go:

R17: Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium - The Dogs shouldn't get close to the Blues because they are young, developing and have no forward line. So that's a win for the Blues, just.

R18: Richmond, MCG - The Tigers, ignoring a woeful 30 secs (and first half) against the Suns, have been improving all year. I expect an undermanned Blues side with no Judd, no Walker, a doubtful Waite (as always), no Simpson, not to be good enough.

R19: Sydney, Etihad Stadium - Best team in the comp right at this moment versus the the Blues? Wouldn't matter if this was played at the G where the Swans can't play.

R20: Brisbane Lions, Etihad Stadium - This one should be a win. With a bit of luck Simpson returns, but the Lions have been showing good signs. And frankly even suggesting that the Lions could beat the Blues in Melbourne really shows you how badly the Blues are going.

R21: Essendon, MCG - Essendon have been improving this year (and no I still don't rate them seriously) and they'll have some players back in four weeks. Quite simply they are a class above the Blues at the moment, so another loss.

R22: Gold Coast, Metricon Stadium - Win. Really no excuse.

R23: St Kilda, Etihad Stadium - Saints should be fighting for a spot in the 8 in this last game and the Blues, well at 10-11 going into this one, they won't be. They'll be on holidays.

So there you go,  3-4 from the last 7 to finish 10-12 is my call for the Blues. They need it to become 5-2 to get the minimum 12 wins to get into the finals and that is not going to happen.

So that is the rest of this year summed up, but what about the future? A long time ago I said the Blues won't win a flag whilst Judd is at the club. It was a touch and go call because this is Judd's 5th year at the Blues. I have always said a club is only ever 5 years away from being a real chance to win a flag, but it takes everything to go right, from coaching, the players, recruiting and of course a bucketload of luck. The thing is the Blues, right now, aren't any closer than 5 years from a flag chance and Juddy will be gone by then. So why aren't they any closer to that? Because they've pretty much stuffed up everything they needed to go right.

Coaching:
Sadly for the Blues, Brett Ratten isn't a great head coach. First he tried to continue Pagan's kick it to Fev gameplan (adopted from Pagan's paddock with a certain W. Carey), but gameplan A was forced to change due to Fev finally being booted from the club for being a twat. So instead he went to the small forward line with Betts, Garlett and Yarran. Of the three Betts has been excellent, Yarran was booted to the half back line (essentially for Walker) and Garlett continues to be a flashy player of no substance. Next was to try playing ruckman out of position as forwards. Ruckman don't make KPP forwards. Everyone knows it. The last good one was Salmon, although arguably Clark has shown some signs and Tippet who was more of a legit forward part time ruck has also done well, but Kreuzer, Hampson and to a lesser extent because he doesn't play there that often, Warnock, are not forwards.

In the middle Ratten doesn't seem to offer much and lets Judd, Simpson, Murphy and Carrazzo just go get the pill. No big coaching nous there.

And down back? Some may argue Henderson has been a revelation, and that Yarran has been fantastic but the reality is both failed in the positions where they were earmarked and end up being shunted down back. Yes, they've been good but its not coaching brilliance, more desperation.

This season Ratt's has been cruelled by injury to key players (there are precious few of those going around - see below) and they didn't have the depth to cover them so what could have been a top 8 finish will end somewhere south of that.

Players:
There is no doubt Carlton has some outright guns: Judd (although he is waning), Simpson, Murphy, Carrazzo (perhaps Ratten's one credible coaching performance, but I'm backing Carrazzo's work ethic instead) and Scotland. Waite misses out because he never plays. And some fine middle range players in Waite, Betts, Walker, Yarran, Duigan, Henderson, Jamison (although his durability is killing him) and Laidler. But its the next rank that is absent. There just isn't much left.

What about Kreuzer and Gibbs, you ask? Well Kreuzer has shown promise, but not delivered. He is slow, can't play as a forward and doesn't get enough hit outs. Frankly he is the Josh Fraser pick, but more on that later. And Gibbs? Well he is the worst number 1 pick since Fraser. Soft, outside, with great skills but he doesn't back himself and takes no risks, nor does he win the hard ball. He is a receiver, who once he gets it takes the lowest of low risk options. You might guess that I don't rate him in the slightest. In a good side he may well be half decent, but not in a middling side going nowhere.

The rest are proven C grade players like Lucas, Warnock, Hampsen, Armfield, Russell, McClean, Robinson, Bower and Ellard or unproven kids.

A good team needs 22 players who can contribute. When fit Carlton gives 12 (14 if you include Kreuzer and Gibbs). What this club doesn't have, is depth. You cannot carry 8 players (at best) into your best 22.

Recruiting:
Of dear, oh dear, coaching is one thing but the players you recruit can keep you in a job or usher you out the door. Carlton's recruiting since Ratten came on board hasn't been great:

2007
National Draft Pick 1 Kreuzer - the big ones take time so they say, well 82 games in and he's sure taking it. Too slow, and doesn't get his hands on it enough. Josh Fraser was also a rated ruck and number 1 pick. He was fundamentally a poor choice. Solid (and I'm being generous) as a ruck, decent around the grounds and eventually traded to the Suns when he was going to be delisted.
ND 36 Steven Browne, cut
ND 46 Denis Armfield, 76 games of utter mediocrity
Pre season draft Darren Pfieffer cut after 7 games and just this year picked up by Port where he is doing reasonably well (in a crap team)
Rookie draft, Aaron Joesph - a serviceable depth player playing in the best 22.
Rookie, David Ellard is still at the club, and he's really not very good. Not very good at all. There aren't too many lists he would be on.

2008
ND 6 Yarran - They've done ok with him. He isn't an A grader but he's generally a solid half back flanker. At least he's a keeper.
ND 40 Robinson - He is hard at it, but really that's all he is. A player like Robinson shouldn't be an autoselection in a best 22, yet he is at Carlton. He should be depth only.
ND 65 Rhys O'Keefe - who? 1 game and still at the club and in his 4th year and he's just a mid-sized player.
PSD Chris Johnston - Demons reject (for good reason). No longer on list
Rookie - Jeff Garlett - downhill skier, flash in the pan, pretty much shouldn't be playing.
Rookie - Sam Jacobs - laughably the best player drafted in the whole period and they traded him because he wanted to go home. They couldn't even convince him to stay.

2009
Yet again 3 ND picks, and only Pick 12 Kane Lucas is of any note. And he's rubbish.
The rookies read even worse, but at least they got Zach Tuohy as an international and he's actually ok and shows some promise.

2010
This is only their second year on the list so a bit harsh to judge them but their first pick, Matthew Watson at 18 looks to have the makings of a solid KPP defender. And Nick Duigan was actually a bit of genius for pick 70. He's aggressive and busts his gut. Not the most talented but knows how to do a job.

2011
Way too early to call.

So out of all that they have Kreuzer, who has all the makings of a spud, Yarran, Tuohy and Duigan, with Watson as potential. Not a lot to show for 4 years (excluding 2011).

But drafts are only half the story, the comedy continues with trading!

2007
Saw the epic Judd deal. They got Juddy who has be magnificent and the only thing they had for a long time who could actually be called a leader, but gave up Josh Kennedy, a young KPP forward prospect. Why? Because they had Fev, and Fev was flying! Such wonderful short sightedness. This trade epitomises everything that is Carlton, quick fix immediate results. Can't recall a team that won a flag like that. Yes they got a star and a captain and he won an undeserved Brownlow (should have been rubbed up for an elbow to Pavlich's face), but they traded away their future and ironically the one thing that right now is their biggest hole, a KPP forward.

Not only did they lose Kennedy, but picks 3 and 20! With pick 3 they could have got Masten, McEvoy, Dangerfield, Rioli, Ward, Rance, or Grimes....

2008
They brought Warnock over from Freo and once again traded picks, the main one was 24, the other two over 50. With 24 they could have got Redden, Shiels, Beams or Hanneberry (the rising star winner)

Warnock has proved to be a frustration. He's still young, but he looks an old school ruck with not a huge amount of mobility (although handy enough in the middle) but his biggest issue is that he breaks too often. And how does he fit with Kreuzer and Hampsen? They all don't fit and that is yet another problem.

2009
Wonderful year for comedy 2011. Brock McClean for pick 11. That still cracks me up. A slow inside mid who had injury issues, not exactly the prototypical midfielder for the quicker paced style sweeping the AFL. Pick 11 could have netted them Talia, Lewis Jetta, Mezel, Fyfe or Bastinac.

The comedy continued with a bit of brilliance from the Carlton footy club. The managed to offload Fev after one too many indiscretions. And they got pick 12 (wasted on Kane Lucas) and Lachie Henderson, who I've already mentioned above as a handy, promising sort.  Of course with no Fev, they have no KPP fwds other than the permanently broken Jarrad Waite who has played just 34 games in the almost three years since Fev left.

2010
Another comedic year from the Blues, this time losing the best player drafted in the Ratten era, Sam Jacobs for a couple of crappy picks, 33 and 67.

The hilarity didn't stop there, because they trade Shaun Grigg who has now blossomed at Richmond for Andrew Collins who hasn't done much of anything at Carlton.

To be fair they picked up Laidler from Geelong for a pittance, and he has shown some nice signs.

In 2011 they finally learned their lesson and didn't trade. Although funnily if they tried to trade Gibbs they may have made out like bandits.

Summary 
So here we are at the end of a long winded analysis of why Carlton can't win the flag. They've stuffed up coaching, recruiting and their list is by and large rubbish with no depth. You can't win a flag without depth.

And one final word, so how can they get better? Well getting a new coach is a start, probably getting a fresh administration or at least some fresh faces, would be helpful as they would hopefully provide a different outlook and break the boys club that Sticks has assembled.

With a new coach comes a bloody big broom. Get rid of the crap, and trade what you can for legitimate talent or high draft picks. Oh and get some decent recruiting staff!

Do that and  then you can start the clock...5 years and counting.

There's hope for the Dee's, they just have to be a little more patient

Ok, its been awhile since I last posted, but I've been stirred enough by Melbourne being so woeful that I thought I would try an give the Dees a little hope.

Back at the end of 2004 the Hawks changed coaches. Clarko came in and started cutting the list immediately. It was only 4 years later that they won a flag.

In 2005 Clarko steered the Hawks to a 5-17 record, and finished 14th on the ladder. Whilst the Dees might be dreaming about 5 wins (let alone 1) this year, I reckon Neeld needs to be given some time to sort out his list and for whoever is left to work out how he wants them to play.

Of the 2005 Hawks list the following played in the Premiership of 08: Bateman, Brown, Campbell, Crawford, Croad, Franklin, Hodge, Ladson, Lewis, Mitchell, Osbourne, Roughead, Sewell, Williams and Young. 15 players out of the 22! 4 of them, Roughead, Franklin, Lewis and Young were all drafted in Clarko's first draft in 04.
The other 7 players? Ellis, Renouf, Birchall and Rioli were drafted as kids, Dew and Guerra drafted as veterans, Gilham from the rookie draft.

So does Melbourne have 15 players on their list who could be in a flag in 4 or 5 years? Absolutely.

Taking a look at players who could still be around:


In 5 years Sylvia will be 31,
Bate, Magner, Clark, Jones 29
Pettard, Couch, Bail, Frawley, Jurrah 28
Grimes and Morton 27 and in their prime
Strauss, Mckenzie, Howe, Blease, Watts 26
Gysberts, Tapscott, Trengove 25

That's 20 players who at this stage are not yet crap enough to dump entirely, add another 5 years of drafting and it looks a pretty damn good side to me! And I haven't even looked at the kids recently drafted like Cook etc.

No, not all of them will make it, and yes some of them may already have lines through them (Morton anyone), but the point is that there is a heck of a lot of potential in those names, and given time under Neeld they may yet flourish, just like the Hawks did. A couple more years of pain you can take for ultimate glory.