Should he stay or should he go?

I'm a little loathe to go back to Carlton after my assessment a month or so back, but with their loss to the Gold Coast, how could I not?

The only real topic of interest is Ratten. Carlton lost, the players proved mentally fragile losing the unlosable game, and if anything it just backs up my earlier comments. However, I've been there and done that, I'm much more interested in Ratten.

I fully expect Carlton to sack him next week (pointless to do it with one game to go), and I fully expect Malthouse to be sounded out this week and contracts finalised so that he can be announced very soon after Ratten's dismissal. But should they sack him?

Yes!
He can't coach. He doesn't inspire his troops (evidence most severely demonstrated on the weekend). He doesn't have tactical nous. He hasn't built a decent list. He relies on his best players to drag his team over the line, and he may well hinder them. His team has gone backwards from 5th last year to out of the 8 this year. Carlton doesn't suffer disappointing results and the coach is always at fault when they happen.

There is no doubt that Carlton will be disappointed with the season that has befallen them, however perhaps its their disillusionment that they should rectify, not their coach.

No!
You know what, Ratten actually took this list to 5th. That is quite impressive when you think about it, and it was without Kreuzer as he was recovering from a knee injury. Speaking of injury (and depth) when they lost Murphy and Carrazzo for a long stint in the same part of the season they lost 2 of their best 4 mids (Judd and Simpson being the others). Murphy had stepped from Judd's shadow to become their best player, and Carrazzo had continued to raise his game to the almost elite level. Part of that is their own talent, but maybe, just maybe part of it is coaching. Needless to say those two injuries, more than any others they had, caused the beginning of the end. And neither was Ratten's fault.

When the Blues just looked about back on track they lost Judd for 4 weeks and all looked lost but its a credit to him that they actually did OK. They won 3 of 4 beating the Dogs (As they should have), the Tigers (which was an excellent win), Brisbane (as they should) and lost to Sydney which is no shame whatsoever. Judd comes back and they wipe the floor with Essendon...4 wins from 5 matches. And lets not forget Simpson was missing for some of those too.

Then they lost to Gold Coast. It quite simply shouldn't have happened. But was it Ratten's fault? No, it wasn't. The blame falls squarely onto the players. They are the ones who got ahead of themselves and they are the ones who couldn't execute skills. 31 scoring shots to 23 and they lose (by 12 no less), 74 more disposals, 21 more hit outs, 23 more inside 50s! This is a game that should not have been lost, but it was, because of the players....

This is a Bomber Thompson moment for the Carlton footy club. Will they back their man in and respect that it isn't his fault and they've overrated the list massively, or will they make the easy cut?

For the record he doesn't deserve to go on the back of this season, but if Malthouse is available, he has the runs on the board and the Blues should get him.

The run home 2012

So there are 4 rounds to go and anything is possible, well almost anything. There are some givens, like the following teams will not make the finals: Carlton, Richmond, Brisbane, Port, Dogs, Dees, Suns and Giants.

The top 4 is settled: Sydney, Adelaide, Collingwood and Hawthorn will be the top 4. Geelong would need some unexpected results to make it and the Eagles are gone. However, the order is far from settled.

The Cats and West Coast are certainties, although West Coast looks shot and can't win the flag.

Which leaves 2 spots to be won from Essendon, North, St Kilda and Fremantle.

So who is going to make up the top 8? Here are the key games which will impact the finals (assuming finals teams aren't ridiculously upset):

Round 20
WC v Geelong - Geelong is flying, WC struggling. But its over in Perth and Geelong has a habit of losing after classic Hawks games, such is their emotional and physical investment, against decent teams. Really tough one to pick, but I'll have to back the Cats on form.

Adelaide v Fremantle - It's in Adelaide and the Crows are doing enough, but Freo has kicked up a gear and this one could easily be an upset. If Adelaide wins, they finish top 2 as the rest of their games are gimmies, but I reckon Freo's form gives them the win.

Swans v Pies - Swans are just taking all before them. The lose of Bolton will hurt, but the Pies seem to be doing just enough and not much more. I reckon the Swans will break their hoodoo because they're form is just so much better.

Bombers v North - Massive game for both clubs. Winner may well guarantee themselves a top 8 spot. Essendon showed a bit against Adelaide, and almost pinched it. I'm not sure if that says a lot about the Bombers or the Crows though. North, they just keep winning. I'll back their form in this one.


Relevant Ladder after round 20
1 Sydney
2 Hawthorn
3 Adelaide
4 Collingwood
5 Geelong
6 West Coast
7 North
8 Fremantle
9 Essendon
10 St Kilda
11 Carlton

Round 21
Geelong v Saints - Cats are just the better side, so they'll win. Sure the Perth travel factor is a big one and its at Etihad, but it would be a big upset for the Saints to win.

Essendon v Carlton - I've knocked Carlton a lot, but they may well have a few back, including Judd. Their form will lift, and Essendon keeps losing players to injury. Think the Blues will win, but nothing in it.

Pies v North - This game is a fascinating one for me. The Pies are lacklustre, and North seems to be flying, but you have to back the Pies for class. An upset wouldn't surprise though and would really make people take notice of North. Can't see the Pies losing two in a row either

Relevant Ladder after round 21

1 Sydney
2 Hawthorn
3 Adelaide
4 Collingwood
5 Geelong
6 West Coast
7 North
8 Fremantle
9 Essendon
10 Carlton
11 St Kilda

Round 22
Richmond v Essendon - The Tigers have lifted and Essendon continue to spiral. This is the nail for Essendon's season.

Sydney v Hawks - Huge game for the Hawks, and one I can't see them winning on the small SCG. It's too tight for the uncontested, spreading style they favour. Swans will win. If the Hawks get the upset then its top 2 for them.

WC v Pies - Pies are just too good and WC has been unconvincing. It could easily be won by the Eagles as its in Perth, but interstate trips hold no fear for the Pies. Pies to win and get back on track.

North v Freo - Its in Melbourne, so North will win and continue their remarkable run.


Relevant Ladder after round 22

1 Sydney
2 Adelaide
3 Collingwood
4 Hawthorn
5 Geelong
6 West Coast
7 North
8 Fremantle
9 Carlton
10 St Kilda
11 Essendon

Round 23
Carlton v St Kilda - Massive game, but ultimately a battle for 9th. Saints.

Pies v Bombers - Bombers gone. Pies win.

Hawks v WC - Its at the MCG so I can't see the Eagles winning. Hawks too good there.

Cats v Sydney - Absolutely fascinating game! Its at Skilled so Geelong is the obvious tip, but the Swans will be on a massive streak, and can beat them there. I'll tip the Cats, but just.

Relevant Ladder after round 23
1 Sydney
2 Adelaide
3 Collingwood
4 Hawthorn
5 Geelong
6 North
7 Fremantle
8 West Coast
9 St Kilda
10 Carlton
11 Richmond
12 Essendon

So there it is. My best guess of how the season finishes. Round 1 of the finals, Sydney v Hawks, Adelaide v Pies, Cats v West Coast, North v Freo.

Of course, so many of those games could go either way, especially those involving the top 4. Swans v Hawks, Swans v Pies, WC v Pies, WC v Cats, Pies v North are all massive and will hugely influence the ladder.