AFL Grand Final Preview #2

Well here we are again....Pies v Saints #2

So whats different? I'm more confident that the Saints can actually win I guess. They were brilliantly resilient and probably played better for most of the game last week. They'll take enormous belief into this game, and know that they can improve so much more. For example getting the ball into their forward 50 might be nice. When they did get it there they scored with ease.

And the Pies? Well I think they did really well last week, but just didn't capitalise. MM was right, poor options bombing too much rather than taking smarter options cost them because of the amount of rushed behinds the Saints forced. Their kicking wasn't that bad although they missed some gimmies. I also think there might be a bit of doubt in their minds, especially because they are generally young and inexperienced. They had the Saints on toast in the 2nd but couldn't take their opportunities and that can't be good for their confidence. When you're devastating best isn't good enough it has to have an impact. Although they did drop Davis, so at least they'll have 22 players this week.

So the winner is.... I'm reversing last weeks decision and going the Saints. I am banking on mental superiority. An interesting, meaningless and trivial fact, in the 2 previous draws the team that was on top of the ladder at the end of the regular season lost the GF replay.

Really though this is a classic 50-50 match. It could go either way and I just don't want to be a fence sitter.

AFL Grand Final Review #1

Hahahahaha. Hilarious! and brilliant!

Pies draw with Saints.

What an amazing game! The Pies leapt out and dominated early before the Saints clawed their way back toward the end to the first quarter. Then the Pies walloped them in the 2nd and frankly at that stage it looked, how far Pies at half time.

But lo-and-behold the Saints turned the tables and absolutely dominated the second half. They just couldn't quite get their around the ground dominance translated to the forward 50.

It was a tight affair and a strong physical game, there'll be some sore boys tonight. All up it was a great grand final and I can't wait for next week, where hopefully we can get a winner.

Personally I thought that the Saints probably controlled the game for longer, but it was the Pies blistering first half that had the Saints playing catch up. Who let it slip? The Pies. They should have kicked on, but really accuracy let them down.

For mine, Goddard was BOG mainly because he led from the front for the entire game. Hayes was up there but faded in the second, and Thomas was the best for the Pies in my opinion.

Brownlow Winner

Juddy! Wow! What a legend! OK 3 exclamation marks is enough, but how good is this guy when he missed the first 3 games and then polled 5 BOGs in his first 5 games of the year. Simply stunning.

TV footage of the night, Eddie shaking his dead in disappointment as Pendlebury sharked votes of Swan in round 20. Priceless.

AFL Grand Final Preview

So here we are, one game to go. The two best teams face of in the Grand Final, Pies v Saints.

The Pies are in awesome form. Its as simple as that. They smashed the Dogs and they destroyed the Cats. Thus far no one has been able to counter there high pressure game plan.

The Saints are more flexible than the Cats and have now seen the Pies at their very best, that will hold them in good stead.

They are happy to play the waiting game, something Geelong is not happy to do. I must admit it almost looks like MM decided that to win a flag you must beat Geelong, how do you do that? Choke them because they never change their game plan. So he devised this tactic to beat Geelong.

Saints also work very hard to have a free man coming off HF, meaning the Pies will not necessarily be able to have as many in the zone up forward. Saints are happy to kick to a contest further up the ground...with Rooey marking them and Kosi squashing packs (because he is a dud and can't mark) and Milne and Scheinder and mids happy to sweep the ball forward the press shouldn't worry them as much.

The Pies will go wide again when coming off the HB line, and as usual they will move the ball damn quick. The Saints will have to work hard at their own zone to slow the Pies up, and control the tempo.

It will be a grinding game that is for sure. Clearances super important, and quick movement forward from those to seize the opportunity against one on one defence is also key for both sides.

Saints can't allow Pies to have a free man in defence. He has to be manned up. They don't care if there is a lot of congested ball and contests in the air in the forward line, but being out numbered is dreadful. I would tag Maxwell.

The mental aspect is key. Both teams have their issues in that regard. Pies are young and could be overwhelmed (they weren't against Geelong, but maybe they got themselves up to beat the Cats and a GF is a different prospect altogether). Thus far the Pies kids have not been too distracted. The Saints have last year on their mind. If they can focus that for them winning rather than causing doubt, then that will help them too.

Kicking for goal is key. Pies had a night out against the Cats but based on evidence that is unlikely to happen again. Saints can be shockers too. Milne's effort (although I though in general he was very good early when the game was tight last week) and Rooey are examples of what can happen.

So in the end who is going to win? I think overall the Pies have been the best team of the year, and on that basis would be deserving winners, and I think they have enough in the tank to beat the Saints, but I'm not entirely writing the Saints off. If they can keep it low scoring and control the tempo they are a real chance, but I don't think they'll be able to control the tempo for long enough to win. Pies by 11.

Brownlow Preview

Well its that time of year where the midfielders get celebrated once more. That's right, its Brownlow night tonight!

I was thinking about going through each team and giving supporters of their teams some hope and someone to cheer on tonight, but I got stuck when I got to A for Adelaide. I thought to myself who could win? And all I heard was crickets chirpping. Hmm Brisbane...oh why bother. So instead instead I've gone the cop out. Here's the main chances:

Swan - yep on top of the list because his season has been magnificent. In particular his work after the mid season break was sublime with god knows how many 30+ possession games. However, its not like that was all there was too it, his start of the year was pretty good too. His biggest problem with vote stealing will be Pendlebury with a few cameo's from Didak.

Ablett - quite simply he is a gun. He started off very well and although he appeared quieter, the Cats still won and frankly he was probably close to their best player even though he was quiet. And top it off he had some magnificent late performances. Take your pick for vote stealers.

Hodge - won't win. He was good early when the Hawks were woeful, but that rarely gets you votes. Whilst he'll poll well in the wins, especially in the middle part of them where he was leading the MVP, he got injured late and won't poll in the last 4 (didn't even play the last).

Goddard - has had a great year. Very consistent and was the one that stood up more than any other Saint whilst St Nick was down for half a season. Expect him to poll very strongly, and is a genuine chance to challenge Ablett and Swan. Hayes was also terrific and will definitely take some votes.

And...well that's it..or is it...I have one dark horse. And the only reason he is a dark horse is because he isn't a midfielder.

Sandilands - that's right the giant is my dark horse. He was superb virtually all season, although he missed a couple of games latish. He is a seriously good chance. Whilst Barlow and Pav will take votes early, the Dockers won enough games and he was dominant in most of them. Certainly would attract the umps attention.

So who is my tip? I'm actually going the dark horse. Sandilands to win it from Ablett and Swan. Hodge and Goddard will round out the top 5.

AFL Review Prelims

Pies d Cats by 41. But this was more like a 100 point win. It was a slaughter. A devastating slaughter. A scintillating 1st quarter pretty much ended the game. Relentless pressure was enforced and the Cats had absolutely no answers. I think they got out to 80 points or so at one point and then basically nursed the last quarter and a half. They could not have had a better lead up and are flag favourites by a mile.

So what now for the Cats? Ablett is just about gone, and their game plan needs a bit of a remodernisation. They overhandball at the best of times but on Friday night it was farcical and forced by great pressure. Are they a top 4 team and a premiership threat next year? I don't know, lets see what preseason does before we make those predictions. I will say one player that needs a good hard look at himself, Joel Selwood. Very poor when the big games came in the finals. Love watching him when the Cats are dominating, but when their poor so is he....

Saints d Dogs by 24. No surprises here. Actually thats not ture. I was suprised that the Dogs dominated the 2nd, but like the Saints in the first they didn't capitalise. However the Saints made them pay in the third. Game over. The Saints rely on good performances from their guns, and most shone on Saturday night. Chirst! Even Milne looked good early and when the game was tight he looked their best forward.

So what now for the Dogs? If their smart they'll dog a more than just tweak the list. Johnson, Aker and Eagleton will be gone, Hahn may not be too far and Harbrow will follow Gablett. Which means at least 5 spots and a bit of cash might be available. They cannot win with the list they have, nor the game plan which once again failed them. For mine Eade has next year (because he won't be sacked) to work a miracle, but that is decidely unlikely, and frankly he should step away now and let a new coach have a crack with the semblence of a decent list. Eade's dogs will not win a GF, yet there are some damn fine players on the list.

And that's it. Prelims done. Grand Final awaits us. Pies v Saints and I can say now I'll be tipping the Pies. I don't even have to think about it. I've been on them for ages and I can't see the Saints being able to break their press and pressure. But I am jumping the gun. Lets see the teams before I do a proper preview.

AFL Prelimin Finals Preview

Pies v Cats. Well here we are in the penultimate week, and we have a magnificent game first up. The Pies who have been magnificent all season up against the champs who are coming off a training run. Across the board there are great players on every line, but I expect the game will be won from the half back lines. Which one is going to utilise the free man best and which one is going to rebound best. Whilst its a tough one to tip I'm going to back the Pies, because they are fresher. I suspect that if they lose it will be the seasoned experience of the Cats that overcomes the kiddies of the Pies, but I just don't think that will happen. Pies by 17.

Saints v Dogs. From all reports this game is going to be a shellacking going the Saints way. They are starting to hit some good form and the Dogs have done nothing to convince me that they have any form whatsoever. However they improve significantly with Morris coming back in, even if he is 80%. If this is played on the Saints terms and its a low scoring affair the Saints will win. If not and its fast a free flowing, which would mean the Dogs are controlling it, they will be a chance to win. I still like the Saints as they are fresh like the Pies but more importantly the Dogs haven't given me enough to justify tipping them. They were gone last week before they salvaged a third quarter that won the game, but really the Swans kicked themselves out if it. dogs unconvincing, Saints too good by 13 (so low because it will be low scoring)

AFL Review Finals Week 2

Apologies for being late, just had a really busy weekend so only a short review.

Cats d Freo by 69. Anyone surprised? No. Didn't think so. Cats had a training drill Freo looked ordinary with the kids succumbing to finals pressure, Sandilands injured and Headland a waste of space.

Where to for the Cats? Well they got out of the match with only what looked like niggles, so it really was like a training drill, or soft match simulation. Perfect warm up for the Pies. And Freo? They should actually be damned happy with their season. They stood up when needed and slapped the entire industry around quashing false expectations. They'll go into the preseason confident that they can build on this season.

Dogs d Swans by 5 points. Great game played like a regular season game, not like a final. Ultimately the Dogs won not because of ay inspired brilliance, but because the Swans gifted them the 3rd quarter. Simple, and yet another game decided by poor kicking.

Where to for the Dogs? A flogging by the Saints. Their game does not stand up to finals pressure. And the Swans? Well no Roos is huge, but the master has left the apprentice a full cupboard to work with. Lots of talent and the Swans will look to be just as impressive next year under Longmire.

AFL Preview Finals Week 2

Cats v Dockers. So we have arrived to the unthinkable, Fremantle on the cusp of moving to a prelim. Yep that's right, unthinkable. The Cats should smash them to a new kind of pulpiness. OK, I acknowledge that Freo COULD get up with their resident giant and with the same hard and quick running that defeated the Hawks, but really, is it likely? No. Cats by 73.

Doggies v Swannies. Several weeks ago I was quite confident that the Dogs would bounce back out of their form slump to defeat the Swans who had looked shot other than a recent victory against the Hawks. I was sooooo wrong. Since then the Dogs have essentially dug a deeper hole and the Swans soared like we haven't seen for many a year. So why pick the Dogs? Well its in Melbourne for a start and at the G. All season the Swans have looked far from comfortable away from Sydney. However form points to the Swans. They just keep winning (precisely what you need in the finals), and they've brought back Bradshaw who loves the big stage and McGlynn who was one of the integral parts of the Swans fantastic start and notably an absentee during their darker middle months of the season. Couple that with the Dogs injury concerns and depth that sees them bring in an unknown rookie for his first game I think the Swannies will snatch this one and launch into the prelims, only the third side from outside the 8 to achieve it in the last decade. Swans by 9

So that leaves us with prelims of Saints v Swans, an intriguing match and likely to be a dour unwatchable struggle. And the Pies v Cats in another prelim (I think this is 3 in recent times), which could result in on of the matches of the season.

AFL Review Finals Week 1

Saints d Geelong by 4 points. Well what a game. The Saints looked the goods early dominating on the scoreboard and all over the ground. At half time it looked close to over. Then the rain came and so did the Cats. In an inspiring performance they clawed themselves back and kept pounding the goals but kept kicking points. In the end the Saints held on for 8 or 9 minutes whilst the Cats whittled the lead. A classic moment was with a minute to go Mooney's tackle on Gwilt saw the ball spill and end up in Cats hands and they kicked the goal, only for it to be disallowed because Mooney landed fair and square in Gwilt's back. Mooney sooking "You've just lost us the game. You've just lost us the game." to the ump. Sorry Moons, you were wrong, perhaps if the Cats could kick the straight in the last it wouldn't have been an issue.

So what's it mean for each team? Well obviously the Saints get the week off and that will do them wonders after a tough match, but I do question whether the Saints just played their Grand Final? As for the Cats they face the Freo, and all the sudden the pressure is on them for Freo has nothing to lose. Could the impossible happen and they go out in straight sets?

Freo d Hawks by 30 points. Those that live by the sword die by the sword. Last week the Hawks won because the Pies didn't capitalise on their scoring opportunities, this week it was the Hawks that failed to capitalise. They had significantly more inside 50s, and more contested ball, yet where they failed Freo was magnificent. They used the big ground masterfully and used their runners to spread the Hawks and get themselves a lot of uncontested marks that allowed them to play quick free flowing footy. On top of that, when they went inside 50, because it was quick transition, they scored. Great win!

So what's it mean for each team? Freo faces the Cats! Nasty, but hell they deserve to play in the semi and the inevitable loss will be a great lesson. Interstate teams must finish top 4 to make an impact (to get a home final in the semi or prelim), and Freo didn't so they'll bow out, most likely belted, but they'll learn. As for the Hawks, it was a bridge to far for them. A great effort to even make the finals after being 1-6 after 7 rounds, and they showed when they are up and running they can match anyone. However they need list revisions, in particular speed through the middle. Their ball movement is too slow and that impacts the big boys, Roughy and Franklin.

Pies d Dogs by 62 points. Well it pretty much went to script. Pies dominated everything. Dogs were just not good enough. And of course the Pies missed a bucketload of shots. However, you get inside 50 that often and get that many shots, more often than not you'll win.

So what's it mean for each team? The Pies can take it easy and nurse their sore legs obtained from too much running and kicking. They'll face the Cats (its almost a cert) and they'll need to bring their very best to the prelim. The Dogs, the face Sydney/Carlton and frankly are up for a fight. They could very well be a clean sweep, because their injuries and mental state mean they could be easy picks for a desperate side.

Swans d Blues by 5 points. The Swannies had this game in complete control at the half, leading by 24 and having increased their quarter time lead. However the Blues were spurred to right their poor first half and came out blazing, not only erasing the lead but having one of their own (7 points) at 3 quarter time courtesy of a 5 goal to nil quarter. It was a desperate final term, that saw behinds a plenty early before the Swans kicked 1 13 minutes into the term to level the scores and followed it up with 2 goals later to seal the win, although the Blues kicked one more themselves and Garlett had a shot in the dying seconds but the Swans fairytale continues.

So what's it mean for each team? Well the Swans are off to play the depleted Dogs in a match, even though it is in Melbourne, they would fancy themselves in. In fact if they do win that they have the Saints in the prelim and amazingly they match up and play well against the Saints. Can this truly be a fairytale? As for the Blues, well they showed a lot of fight in this game and whilst beaten by the better side on the day, they have a side that they can work with. Careful drafting and shrewd recruiting will help this side develop.

AFL Preview Finals Week 1

So here we are...we've cut that chaff of the comp out. Those 8 teams holding us back from this...The FINALS!

Geelong v Saints - This game should be a cracker! It will be close, especially with if the forecasted weather comes in. It will be tight in close with a lot of contested ball. Both teams are happy to mix it up that way so expect a fierce physical contest. For me, I think the Cats have better form and have a more solid 22. The Saints threw the last game and I think their last 6 or so players aren't really anything special. So Cats by 14 in a tight, hard contest. Another thing, whoever wins this will have earned their week off, and the loser, will be tired going into next week. They'll be hoping Freo meets the Hawks, because otherwise it will be another hard physical contest, which even if they win means 2 weeks in a row going into a prelim.

Freo v Hawks - Huge game and one that could be very very close. All the hallmarks of a classic 50-50 game. Freo has the ground, youth, crowd and Sandilands. The Hawks have class, form, hardened bodies, finals experience and Freo's youth on their side. Ultimately I am going the hawks for all of those reasons, as well as a reasonable record at Subi. Hawks by 24. Tough game next week for the winner, at least they'll be playing a worn out team.

Pies v Dogs - There is basically no reason to tip the Dogs. Pies have them covered on all bases. I can't even think of anything to say that gives the Dogs a glimmer of hope. Sorry. Pies by 35

Swans v Blues - I'm trying to find reasons to tip the Blues, but I keep coming back to their up and down year and the lack of consistency (other than Judd, and even he is spraying it). Its hard to ifnd Blues players that stand up week in and week out. On the other side of the coin, that very point is what makes Sydney good. Its not necessarily their talent, but the fact the more often than not they play well as a team. That and the Sydney factor (I know its at ANZ and they have a poor record their but they lose to damn good sides up there because that is who they are drawn against) and of course the Roos facot, a much better coach than Ratten could hope to be. Swans by 17.

So there we have it, next weeks games are Saints v Hawks on Friday night at the G and Dogs v Swans not sure the ground, but probably the G on Saturday night. (Fixture is just my guess)