At first look it wasn't great. At second look it hadn't improved. At third look (sometime after I heard the match review panel cleared him) I wonder what it was they had been smoking.
To quote the match review panel:
"The match day report laid against Essendon’s David Hille for charging the Geelong Cats’ Jimmy Bartel from Friday’s match was assessed. The panel said that Essendon’s Jobe Watson had the ball and had directed a pass to his teammate Hille. Jimmy Bartel moved to cut off the kick and got to the marking contest first. The panel said Hille had his eyes on the ball and was attempting to take a chest mark. He turned to brace himself for contact, which was made to Bartel's body and shoulder. It was considered a legitimate attempt to mark the ball. No further action was taken."
It sounds perfectly reasonable, until you look at the vision. Hille's last movement is to swing his shoulder and elbow forward into Bartel. Last time I check that isn't the motion of protecting oneself of going for the mark.
The got Kosi right though, and Dawson for that matter.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Monday, March 29, 2010
Round 1 Review
So this is it, my footy review. My tips are bolded. Not unhappy to get 6 in the opening round.
Carlton d Richmond by 56 - well what did we get? About 15 minutes of sublime running and passing football from Carlton at the start of the game. It was beautiful to watch. However after that, well it got ugly, and boring. Carlton did what they should have done, and then got some extra sugar at the end of the game. Yeah they won by 56, but it felt like the Tiges weren't actually playing that bad. The Blues got a few late to blow it out but really it felt like a 30 point win. So what can we take out of it? The Blues are OK. Not anything more than that. Whilst they got a nice spread of goal kickers, the Tigers looked undersized. Judd will improve them no end too. The Tigers player aggressively which is a nice change, but just looked too small, and their skills continue to let them down.
Geelong d Essendon by 31 - This game was actually so much more than I expected, but to be honest it seemed like a typical Cats performance. They did enough, and when the game needed to be won, they did just that. Nothing to report really about Geelong. Essendon were good. Yep. I'm surprised. I didn't expect it that’s for sure. They ran and carried well and their defence was good. But ultimately their key forwards were really poor. Gumbleton, Neagle and Williams all did a couple of nice things, but they did not look threatening in front of goal.
Hawthorn d Melbourne by 56 - I feel sorry for Melbourne. I'm sure they have some talent, but at the moment its hidden inside scrawny kids. Like Richmond they were outmuscled, but unlike Richmond, they just weren't hard at it. These boys are a long way off and the scoreline which was very, very flattering, confirms it. The Hawks, they looked very good early. Absolutely outclassed and out bodied the Dees. This game was over at quarter time, and the Hawks pretty much decided not to come out in the 4th. Hawthorn were aggressive and nasty, and there may just have been shades of the unsociable football that won them a flag. But let's not get carried away, they really had just another practice match. We'll know more about them after next week against the Cats.
St. Kilda d Sydney by 8 - What a great game of footy. Sure it was dour at times but it was good to see a nice slog. There were moments of brilliance too (take a bow Adam Goodes). I actually felt that Sydney deserved to win. St Kilda's wonderful goal kicking early and the Swans ability to squander some opportunities were the decisive factors. Oh and let’s not forget St Kilda's use of 21 men on the field for the majority of the night. The umpires were very pro-Sainters, especially when it was all on the line in the last. Where were the 50m penalties for too many on the field huh? Oh well, umpiring goes with you one week and against you the next. Both sides showed a bit, but I guess there were more expectations on the Saints and they didn't really deliver what they should have.
Brisbane d West Coast by 32 - Another game where the result was determined by a barnstorming finish. The Lions ultimately and unsurprisingly were too good for the young eagles. Browny and that man Fev (who could have really kicked a bag) won the game. Simple as that. So where does it leave the Eagles, well, exactly the in the same place. No harm done. They were brave and ran the lions for three quarters. The Eagles are one of many sides that could challenge for 8th but the Lions are virtually guaranteed a spot. The Lions did what they had to and good a good hard test.
Port Adelaide d North Melbourne by 14 - What is it with this round? Another game where one team stormed away, although this one resulted in a failed comeback. Based on scoring shots, Port should had this in the bag, but from all reports they were a lot harder than in recent seasons, and that has been one of my biggest criticisms of them. North are learning a new game plan which is one excuse, but really I think they would be very disappointed. To be Port at their home would have been a great achievement, but one quarter of good football rarely wins matches.
Collingwood d Western Bulldogs by 36 - OK, I did not watch this game, but I can work this much out: The Pies are the BIG winners of this round. To beat the Dogs is one thing, but to do so emphatically and to hold of challenges was excellent. The Dogs would be disappointed. They needed to back up their preseason form, and did not. Thankfully they only have Richmond next week, so a spanking will mean this week was just a loss to a peer.
Fremantle d Adelaide by 56 - Nice. 3 56 point margins. Well I'm impressed. Freo has pulled out the big win with a huge second term and icing on the cake in the third. A great performance but let’s not read too much into it, after all they are Freo and anything is possible next week. OK I'm harsh, they should celebrate a great win. Adelaide however should be shocked and gutted. To lose to Freo like that is incredible. My early call, Adelaide will be the 2010 version of last year’s Hawks. Crap preseason, and they won't recover. Too many underdone players.
So how did every team really fare? Here's my take on the winners and losers
1. Collingwood - Without a doubt a massive win that is the first step to legitimising their challenge to be Premier
2. Fremantle – What a great effort. To win is one thing but to do so, so well over a top 4 fancy was awesome. Let’s not get carried away though. They are Freo. Anything is possible.
3. Brisbane - The gelling of Fev and Browny with 8 goals between them and 17 scoring shots is damned impressive.
4. Hawthorn - From where they are coming last year the win was important but the way they did it was key. Ruthless for 3 quarters.
5. Geelong - It was great to see the premiers still do what they do best, flick the switch and win when they need to.
6. Port Adelaide - They played some tough and hard footy, something not seen for sometime, and they won when they were challenged, something they failed at last year.
7. Sydney - They may have lost, but they deserved a win against a very good side. Plenty of upside.
8. Essendon - Taking it up to the premiers for 3 quarters is a great effort for a young team. More than I expected them to show.
9. Carlton - The Blues did what they should have done, and ran away with it. But they didn't really answer too many questions. We need to see more, against better opposition.
10. West Coast - Showed that they can be competitive. They can make an impact on the season.
11. St. Kilda - They got the win, but were well below expectation. Just a blip I'm sure but a disappointment for this round.
12. North Melbourne - The salvaged respect in the last quarter, but too little too late.
13. Western Bulldogs - They'll be gutted. A 30+ point loss in round 1 against a peer is not what they wanted.
14. Richmond - It was a good effort to muster and attack after being blown away early. They just aren't good enough.
15. Adelaide – I didn’t see this game, so it was a tussle between Adelaide and Melbourne for the ‘honours’ of worst performed. I rank them slightly higher, because at least they had to travel. But that’s it. Only excuse.
16. Melbourne - Probably the most disappointing of all. The way they were flogged for 3 quarters was dreadful. They must put up a better show soon, but I fear that the Pies aren’t the opponent to do it against next week.
Carlton d Richmond by 56 - well what did we get? About 15 minutes of sublime running and passing football from Carlton at the start of the game. It was beautiful to watch. However after that, well it got ugly, and boring. Carlton did what they should have done, and then got some extra sugar at the end of the game. Yeah they won by 56, but it felt like the Tiges weren't actually playing that bad. The Blues got a few late to blow it out but really it felt like a 30 point win. So what can we take out of it? The Blues are OK. Not anything more than that. Whilst they got a nice spread of goal kickers, the Tigers looked undersized. Judd will improve them no end too. The Tigers player aggressively which is a nice change, but just looked too small, and their skills continue to let them down.
Geelong d Essendon by 31 - This game was actually so much more than I expected, but to be honest it seemed like a typical Cats performance. They did enough, and when the game needed to be won, they did just that. Nothing to report really about Geelong. Essendon were good. Yep. I'm surprised. I didn't expect it that’s for sure. They ran and carried well and their defence was good. But ultimately their key forwards were really poor. Gumbleton, Neagle and Williams all did a couple of nice things, but they did not look threatening in front of goal.
Hawthorn d Melbourne by 56 - I feel sorry for Melbourne. I'm sure they have some talent, but at the moment its hidden inside scrawny kids. Like Richmond they were outmuscled, but unlike Richmond, they just weren't hard at it. These boys are a long way off and the scoreline which was very, very flattering, confirms it. The Hawks, they looked very good early. Absolutely outclassed and out bodied the Dees. This game was over at quarter time, and the Hawks pretty much decided not to come out in the 4th. Hawthorn were aggressive and nasty, and there may just have been shades of the unsociable football that won them a flag. But let's not get carried away, they really had just another practice match. We'll know more about them after next week against the Cats.
St. Kilda d Sydney by 8 - What a great game of footy. Sure it was dour at times but it was good to see a nice slog. There were moments of brilliance too (take a bow Adam Goodes). I actually felt that Sydney deserved to win. St Kilda's wonderful goal kicking early and the Swans ability to squander some opportunities were the decisive factors. Oh and let’s not forget St Kilda's use of 21 men on the field for the majority of the night. The umpires were very pro-Sainters, especially when it was all on the line in the last. Where were the 50m penalties for too many on the field huh? Oh well, umpiring goes with you one week and against you the next. Both sides showed a bit, but I guess there were more expectations on the Saints and they didn't really deliver what they should have.
Brisbane d West Coast by 32 - Another game where the result was determined by a barnstorming finish. The Lions ultimately and unsurprisingly were too good for the young eagles. Browny and that man Fev (who could have really kicked a bag) won the game. Simple as that. So where does it leave the Eagles, well, exactly the in the same place. No harm done. They were brave and ran the lions for three quarters. The Eagles are one of many sides that could challenge for 8th but the Lions are virtually guaranteed a spot. The Lions did what they had to and good a good hard test.
Port Adelaide d North Melbourne by 14 - What is it with this round? Another game where one team stormed away, although this one resulted in a failed comeback. Based on scoring shots, Port should had this in the bag, but from all reports they were a lot harder than in recent seasons, and that has been one of my biggest criticisms of them. North are learning a new game plan which is one excuse, but really I think they would be very disappointed. To be Port at their home would have been a great achievement, but one quarter of good football rarely wins matches.
Collingwood d Western Bulldogs by 36 - OK, I did not watch this game, but I can work this much out: The Pies are the BIG winners of this round. To beat the Dogs is one thing, but to do so emphatically and to hold of challenges was excellent. The Dogs would be disappointed. They needed to back up their preseason form, and did not. Thankfully they only have Richmond next week, so a spanking will mean this week was just a loss to a peer.
Fremantle d Adelaide by 56 - Nice. 3 56 point margins. Well I'm impressed. Freo has pulled out the big win with a huge second term and icing on the cake in the third. A great performance but let’s not read too much into it, after all they are Freo and anything is possible next week. OK I'm harsh, they should celebrate a great win. Adelaide however should be shocked and gutted. To lose to Freo like that is incredible. My early call, Adelaide will be the 2010 version of last year’s Hawks. Crap preseason, and they won't recover. Too many underdone players.
So how did every team really fare? Here's my take on the winners and losers
1. Collingwood - Without a doubt a massive win that is the first step to legitimising their challenge to be Premier
2. Fremantle – What a great effort. To win is one thing but to do so, so well over a top 4 fancy was awesome. Let’s not get carried away though. They are Freo. Anything is possible.
3. Brisbane - The gelling of Fev and Browny with 8 goals between them and 17 scoring shots is damned impressive.
4. Hawthorn - From where they are coming last year the win was important but the way they did it was key. Ruthless for 3 quarters.
5. Geelong - It was great to see the premiers still do what they do best, flick the switch and win when they need to.
6. Port Adelaide - They played some tough and hard footy, something not seen for sometime, and they won when they were challenged, something they failed at last year.
7. Sydney - They may have lost, but they deserved a win against a very good side. Plenty of upside.
8. Essendon - Taking it up to the premiers for 3 quarters is a great effort for a young team. More than I expected them to show.
9. Carlton - The Blues did what they should have done, and ran away with it. But they didn't really answer too many questions. We need to see more, against better opposition.
10. West Coast - Showed that they can be competitive. They can make an impact on the season.
11. St. Kilda - They got the win, but were well below expectation. Just a blip I'm sure but a disappointment for this round.
12. North Melbourne - The salvaged respect in the last quarter, but too little too late.
13. Western Bulldogs - They'll be gutted. A 30+ point loss in round 1 against a peer is not what they wanted.
14. Richmond - It was a good effort to muster and attack after being blown away early. They just aren't good enough.
15. Adelaide – I didn’t see this game, so it was a tussle between Adelaide and Melbourne for the ‘honours’ of worst performed. I rank them slightly higher, because at least they had to travel. But that’s it. Only excuse.
16. Melbourne - Probably the most disappointing of all. The way they were flogged for 3 quarters was dreadful. They must put up a better show soon, but I fear that the Pies aren’t the opponent to do it against next week.
Friday, March 26, 2010
2010 Ladder Predictions
Every year before the season starts off I do an end of home and away season ladder, and I have this system of calculating how accurate I’ve been. It goes something like this:
Compare the actual ladder with mine, and for every team I have in exactly the right spot I get 0 points. If I have a team that is 2 places away from where they actually end up I get 2 points and so on. Essentially the idea is to get as few points as possible. The lower the points the more accurate it is.
Ok, enough boring preamble, let’s get to the point (rare for me BTW). Here’s my preseason ladder for 2010:
1. Western Bulldogs – Perhaps I’m a little sucked in by the Hall hype and their solid preseason form, but really I don’t think it’s that. Honest! I think that last year they improved on every line. Great defenders, great runners out of defence, workman like midfield but very reliable with a bit of class and a forward line that finally covers all the bases. The best thing about the Dogs is that they actually have some improvement left in them. Hudson, Hall and Lake are my three key players. If any one of those guys is out for an extended time it will seriously hurt the dogs. They always say you need luck to win a flag, well these guys need a little less luck because of excellent coaching, finally some stronger bodies, a good structure and a little bit of list depth. They will finish top 4, but likely 1-3.
2. St Kilda – The Saints are very good. Actually that is an understatement. They are excellent. Every line is excellent. Sure they maybe a little one paced (can’t really see Lovett fixing that problem) although Peake will give some run. I’m not that convinced by him though. But for me they have two concerns, and its why ultimately I haven’t picked them to play off in the Grand Final. Riewoldt and minimal improvement left. Before you jump up and down screaming how much of a champ Riewoldt is, that is exactly the problem. He is a KPP forward and the only decent one the Saints have. He gives them goal kicking, gut busting run, a legit marking option and above all he brings his other less talented forwards into the game. If Rooey goes down, the Saints are stuffed. Its all standard single point of failure stuff. The other point is that so many players improved to be very good players last year, I just can’t see too much of it left to be honest. McEvoy is one of the only ones I expect to improve, and that will reduce the risk they have in ruck with the old boys King and Gardiner. Like the Dogs they will finish top 4 but I’ll be less generous and say 1-4.
3. Collingwood – The Pies are like the Dogs, puzzle finishers. I can just see Mick peering over his mo and looking at a team photo and happily slotting in a pic of Darren Jolly into the last spot. Jolly and to a lesser extent Ball have been enormous acquisitions for the club. Their defence is underrated with some excellent stoppers, hardness and great creativity and dash. The Pies are a team that relies very heavily on run from defensive. The midfield looks nice too. No longer one paced and reliant on too few classy players, it now has depth, great ball winners and runners. Jolly of course finally gives them a ruckman, something they have not had since Damian Monkhurst. Don’t even bother telling me Fraser is a ruckman, he isn’t. At best he is an athletic half forward or the specialist ‘around the grounds’ ruckman. The forward line is my biggest concern. Yes they have plenty of options, but not much variety. They are all smalls with goal kicking talent. Anthony is a lead up forward with a nice kick, but he isn’t particularly threatening, its the same role Medhurst play, but he has more tricks. Cloke can’t kick, and really should impose himself more (and plays very high), Brown is a unreliable. Having said that, their smalls give them the lots of opportunity. They almost look a bit like the Dogs of last year. Maybe Mick’s puzzle making isn’t quite complete? So where will they end up, 2-7.
4. Geelong – Ah the Cats. What a magnificent team. They really should be seen in the same light as Brisbane of 01-04. They had the Hawks on the ropes in 08, but didn’t have the mental strength (you could call it over confidence) to nail them. That would have been 3 in a row my friends. No point rambling on too much about Geelong, because every man and his cat have done that. They are still a formidable team, but my concerns are really about whether they can stay fit enough. Johnson is the barometer, and frankly I’m not convinced that he can be half the player he was 2 years ago. Mooney is getting on and provides a massive service by bringing the ball to ground and making a contest. He isn’t a great KPP but he does his job well. The midfield is awesome, lets just move on. Otten’s is a risk, he just doesn’t seem to play a lot of footy, and his number 1 understudy in Blake is average at best. The backline as always looks solid, but Scarlett is at the point where he could be one soft tissue injury away from being a normal player as opposed to a gun. Harley is gone (arguably from a playing point of view no massive loss based on last year) and Milburn really started to look average at the end of last year. Can they hold it all together? Maybe. 1-6 for me
5. Hawthorn – First up I did this before Taylor and then Skipper decided that actually playing footy wasn’t for them, but I’ll stand by it. Last year was an off year. Lots of reasons, not point going into it as we’ve heard it before. What they do have is a great midfield, and a couple of great KPP forwards. They could be a very enigmatic side this year. There are questions over ruck (OK, no questions, they have no half decent ruckman available, and when Taylor gets back, well maybe they get a half decent one), and their defence looks undersized, but, and its a big but, Buddy and Roughy up forward is just ominous. If the Hawks can get their run from half back going and their midfields decide to follow team structures and actually zone up as opposed to last year, they are in with a faint chance. They could be anything, so its tempting to put 1-16 as a range, but I’ll try to be realistic, 2-10.
6. Adelaide – I like Adelaide. I have a lot of time for them. They have an interesting and diverse forwardline, and excellent midfield, a solid and stingy defence. But my big nag on them is Neil Craig. He doesn’t seem to allow them to play inspired exciting football. They are and will be Crowbots whilst he is in charge. I just don’t think he can get them to a flag. They have the players, but perhaps not the game plan to get there. 3-8. Hmm, that was a bit shorter than I intended...
7. Brisbane – The Lions like the Hawks are an enigma. So many list changes, including one pretty big name, Kev. Oh hang on, that is it? That’s it, Fev, sorry about that. Just forgot his name for a moment, you know he’s slipped in quite quietly and seamlessly. All a bit sneaky if you ask me. Brown and Fev, its mouth watering on paper, unknown in practice. Two of the great KPP forwards together at last (or is it again, did they play in that tribute match a couple of years ago). But no one really knows if they will gel. Both are strong personalities that command the ball so I am expecting some teething problems. Getting rid of Bradshaw was a dumb move. He knew his role. Fev is more talented but that isn’t all that makes you the best player for a club at a particular time. Enough on Fev (I almost feel like a journo the way I’ve gone on about him), the midfield is solid without being outstanding. Black is the key. He is probably their most important player because his midfield class is so much more obvious than anyone else they’ve got. Yeah, yeah Brown and Fev are important, but if one goes down they still have the other. Their backline is solid, no frills. At best they are a very dark horse, 3-10
8. Sydney – Rounding out the 8 is the Swans. This was a last minute change based on a couple of things. This first, their list. Its damn good! Sure they lose Hall, O’Loughlin, Barry and Jolly but the first three were pretty much done at the Swans for a variety of reasons. Jolly is a big loss, but not irreplaceable. Seaby, Mumford and White make for some decent ruck prospects, even if they aren’t outstanding. What I love is their forward line, White (OK I’m using him in two positions, but heck he will play in both), Goodes, Bradshaw and throw in whoever you want as smalls. That my friends is mouthwatering. With the strong midfield they have they should potent. And the backline, well, can it be anything but good? These guys like to defend. I’m kind of hoping for a dour defensive fame that explodes as soon as they are in possession. 6-10 is where they will end up
9. West Coast – They are stiff not to be in the 8, but I got so excited by Sydney I had to drop someone. They are young, they are exciting and they importantly have a class through their spine. Kennedy is improving, LeCras is a gun, Kerr, Cox, Glass, Adam Selwood and Hurn are all class. NicNat and Masten will both develop this year. The future is rosy for the Eagles. The home ground advantage is enormous and they know how to exploit it. 6-12
10. Carlton – Oh no I’ve dropped Carlton out of my 8! Am I insane, well no I don’t think so. Instead of having two superstars they now have one. And that is a huge impact. Juddy is key to success now and he’s missing for the first three which could see them behind the 8 ball early (at least they did the expected thing and beat Richmond last night). There is a massive hole up forward that needs to be filled, and like the Pies they have plenty of options but no one to stamp themselves on a game consistently. Their midfield is pretty good, and will improve a lot. Their defence is better that people think, Jamison’s return is huge. So if goal scoring is one question the other is depth. After the best 18 or so (which is better than in previous years where there might have been a best 10) it really starts to get threadbare. 8-14
11. Essendon – They are young, and they lost a lot of experience at the end of last year. Perhaps its a good thing, but to me they don’t have the excellent older players that they used to. They barely scrapped into the 8 (on the back of one of the great inspirational and self sacrificing, or is that suspendable, acts in a match), and I think it will be 2 steps back before trying to climb forward. Midfield is inexperienced but speedy, forward line is unproven and unknown, defence actually looks like it is getting there, but I can’t pick them with any confidence especially as so many seem to think Ryder is actually anything more than a good footballer (and I’m being generous). If he is one of the best at Essendon, then there are dark times ahead. 9-15
12. North Melbourne – I’m fickle. I admit it. Drew Petrie breaks his foot, and I have north tumble from 9th to 12th. That’s how important he is. He isn’t their best player, not most talented but he is flexible, and probably is the only thing that resembles a good KPP forward. He is out for at least 6 weeks. The first 6 weeks of the year. The most important 6 weeks in the season. For it is at the start where a season is set up. I love North. Great kids (this midfield is going to be one of the best in a couple of years), hard coach, great ruck stocks and an underrated developing backline. 9-15, before Petrie I would have had 6-12 I reckon.
13. Port Adelaide – Sorry Port fans, but Port is crap. Heavy reliance on old stars, a bit of talent spread throughout, and a coach who is a fool. Man, that was a bit harsh, but its where I reckon they are at. Lets wait for Laidley to take over as soon as possible and actually form this team into something palatable. But it looks bleak with compromised drafts coming. 10-16
14. Fremantle – Freo...they are just so unthreatening. Its sad really. They do have two great players in Sandilands and Pav, and they have oodles of talent. All they need now is some time and cohesion and they could develop nicely. But its too early. 12-16
15. Richmond – After last night many will jump on them and say 16th for sure, well guess what 15th aint that far away people, and I did this before last night! OK they have a new coach and lots of kids. Hardwick has salvaged what he could from the last 10 years of Frawley and Wallace, and it really isn’t that much. Delidio is class, Cotchin is potential, and then there are a host of OK players. Their backline is developing, their forward line is developing and way too short, their midfielders are developing. Reality is more than half the list aren’t good enough (and won’t ever be) to be considered best 22. They have the building blocks to start again but that’s it. 4 years minimum before getting to the finals. 13-16
16. Melbourne – The Dees are on the right track. They are more advanced that Port, Freo and Richmond. They just need the games in the kids. It really is that simple. Oh, and they need to find a forward line. Bates is a good player, but doesn’t play like a KPP. Miller is solid, but is a link man only unless someone points him at the goals., so that leaves Jack Watts as their best KPP forward, and he has done all of nothing so far. I had them as high as 12 before all the injuries and rumours of a poor preseason. But right now I would be surprised if they finished any higher than 13. 13-16
Compare the actual ladder with mine, and for every team I have in exactly the right spot I get 0 points. If I have a team that is 2 places away from where they actually end up I get 2 points and so on. Essentially the idea is to get as few points as possible. The lower the points the more accurate it is.
Ok, enough boring preamble, let’s get to the point (rare for me BTW). Here’s my preseason ladder for 2010:
1. Western Bulldogs – Perhaps I’m a little sucked in by the Hall hype and their solid preseason form, but really I don’t think it’s that. Honest! I think that last year they improved on every line. Great defenders, great runners out of defence, workman like midfield but very reliable with a bit of class and a forward line that finally covers all the bases. The best thing about the Dogs is that they actually have some improvement left in them. Hudson, Hall and Lake are my three key players. If any one of those guys is out for an extended time it will seriously hurt the dogs. They always say you need luck to win a flag, well these guys need a little less luck because of excellent coaching, finally some stronger bodies, a good structure and a little bit of list depth. They will finish top 4, but likely 1-3.
2. St Kilda – The Saints are very good. Actually that is an understatement. They are excellent. Every line is excellent. Sure they maybe a little one paced (can’t really see Lovett fixing that problem) although Peake will give some run. I’m not that convinced by him though. But for me they have two concerns, and its why ultimately I haven’t picked them to play off in the Grand Final. Riewoldt and minimal improvement left. Before you jump up and down screaming how much of a champ Riewoldt is, that is exactly the problem. He is a KPP forward and the only decent one the Saints have. He gives them goal kicking, gut busting run, a legit marking option and above all he brings his other less talented forwards into the game. If Rooey goes down, the Saints are stuffed. Its all standard single point of failure stuff. The other point is that so many players improved to be very good players last year, I just can’t see too much of it left to be honest. McEvoy is one of the only ones I expect to improve, and that will reduce the risk they have in ruck with the old boys King and Gardiner. Like the Dogs they will finish top 4 but I’ll be less generous and say 1-4.
3. Collingwood – The Pies are like the Dogs, puzzle finishers. I can just see Mick peering over his mo and looking at a team photo and happily slotting in a pic of Darren Jolly into the last spot. Jolly and to a lesser extent Ball have been enormous acquisitions for the club. Their defence is underrated with some excellent stoppers, hardness and great creativity and dash. The Pies are a team that relies very heavily on run from defensive. The midfield looks nice too. No longer one paced and reliant on too few classy players, it now has depth, great ball winners and runners. Jolly of course finally gives them a ruckman, something they have not had since Damian Monkhurst. Don’t even bother telling me Fraser is a ruckman, he isn’t. At best he is an athletic half forward or the specialist ‘around the grounds’ ruckman. The forward line is my biggest concern. Yes they have plenty of options, but not much variety. They are all smalls with goal kicking talent. Anthony is a lead up forward with a nice kick, but he isn’t particularly threatening, its the same role Medhurst play, but he has more tricks. Cloke can’t kick, and really should impose himself more (and plays very high), Brown is a unreliable. Having said that, their smalls give them the lots of opportunity. They almost look a bit like the Dogs of last year. Maybe Mick’s puzzle making isn’t quite complete? So where will they end up, 2-7.
4. Geelong – Ah the Cats. What a magnificent team. They really should be seen in the same light as Brisbane of 01-04. They had the Hawks on the ropes in 08, but didn’t have the mental strength (you could call it over confidence) to nail them. That would have been 3 in a row my friends. No point rambling on too much about Geelong, because every man and his cat have done that. They are still a formidable team, but my concerns are really about whether they can stay fit enough. Johnson is the barometer, and frankly I’m not convinced that he can be half the player he was 2 years ago. Mooney is getting on and provides a massive service by bringing the ball to ground and making a contest. He isn’t a great KPP but he does his job well. The midfield is awesome, lets just move on. Otten’s is a risk, he just doesn’t seem to play a lot of footy, and his number 1 understudy in Blake is average at best. The backline as always looks solid, but Scarlett is at the point where he could be one soft tissue injury away from being a normal player as opposed to a gun. Harley is gone (arguably from a playing point of view no massive loss based on last year) and Milburn really started to look average at the end of last year. Can they hold it all together? Maybe. 1-6 for me
5. Hawthorn – First up I did this before Taylor and then Skipper decided that actually playing footy wasn’t for them, but I’ll stand by it. Last year was an off year. Lots of reasons, not point going into it as we’ve heard it before. What they do have is a great midfield, and a couple of great KPP forwards. They could be a very enigmatic side this year. There are questions over ruck (OK, no questions, they have no half decent ruckman available, and when Taylor gets back, well maybe they get a half decent one), and their defence looks undersized, but, and its a big but, Buddy and Roughy up forward is just ominous. If the Hawks can get their run from half back going and their midfields decide to follow team structures and actually zone up as opposed to last year, they are in with a faint chance. They could be anything, so its tempting to put 1-16 as a range, but I’ll try to be realistic, 2-10.
6. Adelaide – I like Adelaide. I have a lot of time for them. They have an interesting and diverse forwardline, and excellent midfield, a solid and stingy defence. But my big nag on them is Neil Craig. He doesn’t seem to allow them to play inspired exciting football. They are and will be Crowbots whilst he is in charge. I just don’t think he can get them to a flag. They have the players, but perhaps not the game plan to get there. 3-8. Hmm, that was a bit shorter than I intended...
7. Brisbane – The Lions like the Hawks are an enigma. So many list changes, including one pretty big name, Kev. Oh hang on, that is it? That’s it, Fev, sorry about that. Just forgot his name for a moment, you know he’s slipped in quite quietly and seamlessly. All a bit sneaky if you ask me. Brown and Fev, its mouth watering on paper, unknown in practice. Two of the great KPP forwards together at last (or is it again, did they play in that tribute match a couple of years ago). But no one really knows if they will gel. Both are strong personalities that command the ball so I am expecting some teething problems. Getting rid of Bradshaw was a dumb move. He knew his role. Fev is more talented but that isn’t all that makes you the best player for a club at a particular time. Enough on Fev (I almost feel like a journo the way I’ve gone on about him), the midfield is solid without being outstanding. Black is the key. He is probably their most important player because his midfield class is so much more obvious than anyone else they’ve got. Yeah, yeah Brown and Fev are important, but if one goes down they still have the other. Their backline is solid, no frills. At best they are a very dark horse, 3-10
8. Sydney – Rounding out the 8 is the Swans. This was a last minute change based on a couple of things. This first, their list. Its damn good! Sure they lose Hall, O’Loughlin, Barry and Jolly but the first three were pretty much done at the Swans for a variety of reasons. Jolly is a big loss, but not irreplaceable. Seaby, Mumford and White make for some decent ruck prospects, even if they aren’t outstanding. What I love is their forward line, White (OK I’m using him in two positions, but heck he will play in both), Goodes, Bradshaw and throw in whoever you want as smalls. That my friends is mouthwatering. With the strong midfield they have they should potent. And the backline, well, can it be anything but good? These guys like to defend. I’m kind of hoping for a dour defensive fame that explodes as soon as they are in possession. 6-10 is where they will end up
9. West Coast – They are stiff not to be in the 8, but I got so excited by Sydney I had to drop someone. They are young, they are exciting and they importantly have a class through their spine. Kennedy is improving, LeCras is a gun, Kerr, Cox, Glass, Adam Selwood and Hurn are all class. NicNat and Masten will both develop this year. The future is rosy for the Eagles. The home ground advantage is enormous and they know how to exploit it. 6-12
10. Carlton – Oh no I’ve dropped Carlton out of my 8! Am I insane, well no I don’t think so. Instead of having two superstars they now have one. And that is a huge impact. Juddy is key to success now and he’s missing for the first three which could see them behind the 8 ball early (at least they did the expected thing and beat Richmond last night). There is a massive hole up forward that needs to be filled, and like the Pies they have plenty of options but no one to stamp themselves on a game consistently. Their midfield is pretty good, and will improve a lot. Their defence is better that people think, Jamison’s return is huge. So if goal scoring is one question the other is depth. After the best 18 or so (which is better than in previous years where there might have been a best 10) it really starts to get threadbare. 8-14
11. Essendon – They are young, and they lost a lot of experience at the end of last year. Perhaps its a good thing, but to me they don’t have the excellent older players that they used to. They barely scrapped into the 8 (on the back of one of the great inspirational and self sacrificing, or is that suspendable, acts in a match), and I think it will be 2 steps back before trying to climb forward. Midfield is inexperienced but speedy, forward line is unproven and unknown, defence actually looks like it is getting there, but I can’t pick them with any confidence especially as so many seem to think Ryder is actually anything more than a good footballer (and I’m being generous). If he is one of the best at Essendon, then there are dark times ahead. 9-15
12. North Melbourne – I’m fickle. I admit it. Drew Petrie breaks his foot, and I have north tumble from 9th to 12th. That’s how important he is. He isn’t their best player, not most talented but he is flexible, and probably is the only thing that resembles a good KPP forward. He is out for at least 6 weeks. The first 6 weeks of the year. The most important 6 weeks in the season. For it is at the start where a season is set up. I love North. Great kids (this midfield is going to be one of the best in a couple of years), hard coach, great ruck stocks and an underrated developing backline. 9-15, before Petrie I would have had 6-12 I reckon.
13. Port Adelaide – Sorry Port fans, but Port is crap. Heavy reliance on old stars, a bit of talent spread throughout, and a coach who is a fool. Man, that was a bit harsh, but its where I reckon they are at. Lets wait for Laidley to take over as soon as possible and actually form this team into something palatable. But it looks bleak with compromised drafts coming. 10-16
14. Fremantle – Freo...they are just so unthreatening. Its sad really. They do have two great players in Sandilands and Pav, and they have oodles of talent. All they need now is some time and cohesion and they could develop nicely. But its too early. 12-16
15. Richmond – After last night many will jump on them and say 16th for sure, well guess what 15th aint that far away people, and I did this before last night! OK they have a new coach and lots of kids. Hardwick has salvaged what he could from the last 10 years of Frawley and Wallace, and it really isn’t that much. Delidio is class, Cotchin is potential, and then there are a host of OK players. Their backline is developing, their forward line is developing and way too short, their midfielders are developing. Reality is more than half the list aren’t good enough (and won’t ever be) to be considered best 22. They have the building blocks to start again but that’s it. 4 years minimum before getting to the finals. 13-16
16. Melbourne – The Dees are on the right track. They are more advanced that Port, Freo and Richmond. They just need the games in the kids. It really is that simple. Oh, and they need to find a forward line. Bates is a good player, but doesn’t play like a KPP. Miller is solid, but is a link man only unless someone points him at the goals., so that leaves Jack Watts as their best KPP forward, and he has done all of nothing so far. I had them as high as 12 before all the injuries and rumours of a poor preseason. But right now I would be surprised if they finished any higher than 13. 13-16
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
AFL Round 1 Tips
Ok so finally the real stuff starts! About time if you ask me.
So here's my thoughts on the tips:
Richmond v Carlton - The Blues look the obvious tip against a Tigers team that really hasn't shown much, and shouldn't be expected to considering their youth. And you know what, after looking at the teams I can't change my opinion. Sure there is no Judd and no Fev but the Tigers really don't have much there except hope. Blues for me probably by around 30.
Geelong v Essendon - Well, I could go into some detailed analysis, but frankly what's the point. Anyone tipping Essendon is praying. Cats should win very comfortably, 50+
Melbourne v Hawthorn - Both sides have been hit hard by injury, so much so that the Hawks have no reasonable ruckman left (sorry to Brent Renouf, but he is still in the 'developing' frame). Yes its arguable that they didn't have any anyway (sorry Simon Taylor) but at least he seemed to have gotten that pointless angry side out of his game before going down with a knee. Melbourne have probably got it worse though because they just don't have the depth of the Hawks. A close one wouldn't surprise but the Hawks should win by around 30 even without Buddy.
Sydney v St Kilda - I like Sydney this year. I think Goodes, White and Bradshaw as targets up forward is formidable. They have a gutsy midfield although one of Seaby or Mumford must step up a lot to even come close to Jolly. And as always a good back half with the added run of Kennelly. For mine there was no bad thing with Hall, Barry and O'Loughlin retiring. St. Kilda are just a class outfit all over the ground. They should be too good with too many options up forward and an excellent midfield. The heart says Sydney at home the head says the Sainters. Probably by 20 or so.
Brisbane v West Coast - The Eagles always seem to play well against Brisbane, and they have had a great preseason, and have no injuries, which is remarkable in itself. There's a lot to like about them with exciting kids, a decent back half with run and finally a key forward with promise in Kennedy. The Lions, well it is all about the midfield for me. If they can get first use and actually win the midfield battle then the game is over. Brown and Fev will need to learn to work together, but both are great forwards and I can't see how they both can be contained, but it is all about the midfield. The winner of that wins the game. I give it to Brisbane because its at home and they have a little more experience. 10 points.
Port Adelaide v North Melbourne - I was all over North early on and then two things happened. Greenwood broke his toe (I thinkl) in a tracksuit incident and most importantly today Petrie broke his foot. Having seen Croad and Egan in recent years fail to comeback, I'm a little wary of broken feet. Sadly for North Petrie is probably their most important player. I'm not a fan of Port at all. I think they lost a lot of class and frankly don't have a huge amount of talent that is not past it. However, Port at home against the Petrieless Roos, 20 points. I would have tipped North had it not been for that foot injury.
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood - This is my Grand Final preview. I cannot wait to see this game, it should be a cracker. The Pies have bolstered themselves beautifully over the break and now seem to have all the pieces on every line. My biggest query is their forward line though. They still don't have a proven key forward that can kick bags and break packs. You know what, they are almost like the Doggies of recent past. Good everywhere, but no key forward. The Doggies however have got Hall. So far so good, but will he snap (mentally or a jaw)? They are in red hot form and I can't go past them. Dogs by 6. By the way, I tipped the Dogs to beat the Pies in the Grand Final too.
Fremantle v Adelaide - This should be Adelaide in a canter, but a shocking preseason and lots of injuries has the jury out. Their midfield is very good and their forward line finally looks interesting with Tippet, Douglas, Knights and the Porpoise all rotating through. But whilst Craig is in charge they'll always be the Crowbots. Freo, well, they are a fair way off. They have talent, and they have some greats in Sandilands and Pav, but just not enough depth and class in the 22 yet. Give them a couple of years. Crows by 15
So here's my thoughts on the tips:
Richmond v Carlton - The Blues look the obvious tip against a Tigers team that really hasn't shown much, and shouldn't be expected to considering their youth. And you know what, after looking at the teams I can't change my opinion. Sure there is no Judd and no Fev but the Tigers really don't have much there except hope. Blues for me probably by around 30.
Geelong v Essendon - Well, I could go into some detailed analysis, but frankly what's the point. Anyone tipping Essendon is praying. Cats should win very comfortably, 50+
Melbourne v Hawthorn - Both sides have been hit hard by injury, so much so that the Hawks have no reasonable ruckman left (sorry to Brent Renouf, but he is still in the 'developing' frame). Yes its arguable that they didn't have any anyway (sorry Simon Taylor) but at least he seemed to have gotten that pointless angry side out of his game before going down with a knee. Melbourne have probably got it worse though because they just don't have the depth of the Hawks. A close one wouldn't surprise but the Hawks should win by around 30 even without Buddy.
Sydney v St Kilda - I like Sydney this year. I think Goodes, White and Bradshaw as targets up forward is formidable. They have a gutsy midfield although one of Seaby or Mumford must step up a lot to even come close to Jolly. And as always a good back half with the added run of Kennelly. For mine there was no bad thing with Hall, Barry and O'Loughlin retiring. St. Kilda are just a class outfit all over the ground. They should be too good with too many options up forward and an excellent midfield. The heart says Sydney at home the head says the Sainters. Probably by 20 or so.
Brisbane v West Coast - The Eagles always seem to play well against Brisbane, and they have had a great preseason, and have no injuries, which is remarkable in itself. There's a lot to like about them with exciting kids, a decent back half with run and finally a key forward with promise in Kennedy. The Lions, well it is all about the midfield for me. If they can get first use and actually win the midfield battle then the game is over. Brown and Fev will need to learn to work together, but both are great forwards and I can't see how they both can be contained, but it is all about the midfield. The winner of that wins the game. I give it to Brisbane because its at home and they have a little more experience. 10 points.
Port Adelaide v North Melbourne - I was all over North early on and then two things happened. Greenwood broke his toe (I thinkl) in a tracksuit incident and most importantly today Petrie broke his foot. Having seen Croad and Egan in recent years fail to comeback, I'm a little wary of broken feet. Sadly for North Petrie is probably their most important player. I'm not a fan of Port at all. I think they lost a lot of class and frankly don't have a huge amount of talent that is not past it. However, Port at home against the Petrieless Roos, 20 points. I would have tipped North had it not been for that foot injury.
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood - This is my Grand Final preview. I cannot wait to see this game, it should be a cracker. The Pies have bolstered themselves beautifully over the break and now seem to have all the pieces on every line. My biggest query is their forward line though. They still don't have a proven key forward that can kick bags and break packs. You know what, they are almost like the Doggies of recent past. Good everywhere, but no key forward. The Doggies however have got Hall. So far so good, but will he snap (mentally or a jaw)? They are in red hot form and I can't go past them. Dogs by 6. By the way, I tipped the Dogs to beat the Pies in the Grand Final too.
Fremantle v Adelaide - This should be Adelaide in a canter, but a shocking preseason and lots of injuries has the jury out. Their midfield is very good and their forward line finally looks interesting with Tippet, Douglas, Knights and the Porpoise all rotating through. But whilst Craig is in charge they'll always be the Crowbots. Freo, well, they are a fair way off. They have talent, and they have some greats in Sandilands and Pav, but just not enough depth and class in the 22 yet. Give them a couple of years. Crows by 15
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