AFL Review Round 13 Part 2

Saints d Cats by 24. This was a remarkable game, simply because it saw the gun team of the comp completely unraveled. The Cats looked good early and but the Saints were always there about and you could tell from the first 5 minutes that this wasn't going to go all the Cats way. The Saints were hard and persistent and in the end it the pressure was just too great for the Cats who essentially shut up shop in the 2nd half. Not often you'll see this team rattled and not score a goal in a half of football. Full credit to the Saints for playing a style for the conditions and the opponent. (Mental not, check weather and late outs before tipping!). Whilst its impressive that they won without their best player, ironically he may have been a weakness in this particular game. Had he been there the Saints would have tried to use him, but it wasn't a night for talls. And interestingly that is one of the reasons the Cats lost. Scarlett and more importantly for this example, Mooney were brought in for a dirty night and the Cats looked and played too tall. OK, so they Saints were great, the Cats poor, but just before we start penning the demise of this great team lets think about the omissions; Kelly, Corey, Chapman. That's 3 super important mids from the side, leaving even this talented group thin with class on rotations.

Pies d Swans by 25. Well what's to say? The Pies did what they always do against Sydney, beat them at every hand they show. Looks like Roos will never get another chance to beat the Pies.

Crows d Dees by 44. Good win by the Crows and they continued their trend of W-L with the wins coming at AAMI. The game was over at half time after Adelaide essentially put the Dees to the sword.

7 tips this week, bloody Cats! However, thats pretty good for me so I'll take it.

And after 2 weeks, normal footy resumes next week. Here's how I saw each teams performance:

1. North - This young team is doing everything it can to gain respect and push for a finals birth. A good win against Port gives them a nice 2 game break against their nearest rivals. Their equal with the Hawks and Carlton on the ladder, although their poor % sees them comfortably out of the 8. They have Geelong next and Sydney in Sydney after that. I would expect losses to both but the Sydney game is the winnable one. Do that and they will be evens and still a chance.

2. Hawks - Fantastic win set up early, and finished off brilliantly. The Hawks are finally starting to win last quarters, and stand up to challenges, which is an ominous sign for other clubs. Earlier in the year it was last quarter disappearances that cost them games, but this isn't happening anymore and I strongly suspect its Wayde Skipper's fault. Renouf simply couldn't stand up by himself and his replacements, in Roughead and Hodge and Shoenmakers just were not good enough. Now SKipper provides rest to Renouf and the entire team benefits. There's also the fact that they are slowly getting their best team back together. The win pushes them on to the positive side of the ledger, almost buries a rival in Essendon, keeps them in the 8 for another week, and the Carlton loss means the Hawks have now caught up to another team.

3. Tigers - The were fantastic in victory, this time getting a spread of goal kickers and contributors. Its all positives for the Tigers, and heaven forbid they may even clambour off the bottom of the ladder! Their old folks like Tuck and Cousins are standing up and being well supported by some serious talent. There will still be some signficant cutting of the list, because there are a lot of duds there, but the nucleus of the side looks capable. Plenty to like.

4. Dockers - They were magnificent in victory away from home and this win gave them breathing space from one of their competitors, now leading Carlton by 2 games. Their entrenched in the 8 for a least a couple of rounds, and are doing all the right things. They are beating some challengers and losing to others which is pretty much confirming that they are in the mix and will continue to be come the business end of the season.

5. Crows - High scoring fluid Crows. Who would have thought? Important for pride if nothing else. Gives them seperation from the bottom 2 and hopes of catching the next rung above.

6.Saints - Massive win to get one on the dominant team of the comp. Coached well and played hard. Saints supporters are loving it and can't wait to get their best player back. Watch this space.

7.Dogs - The win the should have had. Important because of other results. They are now the immediate threat to the 8, only a game off the pace. However they can't rest on their laurels because they have a desperate Hawks crew next week in what could be a cracking match. Eade described their round 3 confrontation as the hardest physical encounter they've had, and they'll be expected more of the same.

8. Pies - A good solid win, probably as expected by most. They needed it to maintain their strong hold on the 4. Expect more of the same in coming weeks with a side that boasts the unusual state of a best 28.

9. Cats - Very disappointing performance. Yes they had excuses with significant players out of their midfield but really, it was still unexpected. Doubt that its a significant concern though.

10. Swans - They would have seen this as a few opportunities that slipped. First to consolidate breathing room in the bottom part of the 8. Second to break a hoodoo. They couldn't do it, and certainly weren't helped by Kennelly and Bradshaw being late withdrawals.

11. Dees - Disappointing loss, but as their form line shows they are not that great, and after having ridden a high for a few rounds early, the reality of youth is hitting hard.

12. Port - They aren't very good. I think I've established that. This was a winnable game, however they couldn't muster it. If I was Port I would be pushing Williams to play the kids, give out a farewell game or two and then push Williams out the door. Let the next coach see the kids and do the right thing by the club Mark.

13. Eagles - One of the great disappointments for the season. The Eagles just don't show enough. Their players aren't good enough, and when players aren't playing well questions get asked of the coach. Who are the coaches in the line of fire? Williams, Craig and now Worsfold. Why? Because their clubs have failed to deliver public expectations. The most interesting thing for me is what West Coast does at the end of the year. Will it pay out Woosha or not? Surely something is going to happen, for they don't take poor performances well, nor do they want a wooden cooking utensil sitting in their trophy cabinet, and at the moment they are looking like getting one.

14. Blues - Dreadful loss. A win would have seen them level with top 4 teams, but the loss now consigns them with the chasing pack. Whilst it is unexpected they'll drop from the 8 the loss of Kreuzer hurts them, not so much in rucking but in around the ground flexibility. Some very interesting challenges await.

15. Dons - Will rue an opportunity that slipped away. They were lucky to be in it enough to finish strongly, but really they weren't the best side on the day. This drops them to 5-8 and with 9 rounds to go, 2 games and % out of the 8 they are going to have to win at least 7 of the 9 and pray that those above them start failing in a big way. Its not without hope because the Hawks have a very tough run after the break, and the Roos are young and inconsistent. Still, its unlikely.

16. Lions - 8 losses from 9 games now. They are gone. Pack it up boys and play the kids. I wouldn't say the recruiting of veterens was a flawed or failed plan, but injuries have tested depth, and shown what Voss highlighted last year, that it isn't a list than runs deep. I have no doubt that had they kept their best on the park they would be contesting in finals. In many ways their season is similar to Adelaides, a tale of a good team cruelled, which is again the same as the Hawks of 2009. Next year they will improve, IF they can get decent seasons from Brown, Fev and Black.

AFL Preview Round 13 Part 2

Saints v Cats - This could be a classic. But I reckon it might just be a fizzer. The Cats have lost Chapman and he has been fantastic this year, although in recent games not as dominant. The Saints have lost Clarke (big deal). The Saints replaced him with Steven (even less of a deal), so I'm calling that a loss to the Saints. Chappy is joined by gap filler Hogan and replaced by Scarlett and Mooney. That my friends is a big plus.

I thought another way to look at it was benches: Saints - Eddy, Steven, McQualter, Stanley v Cats - Wojcinski, Hunt, West, Lonergan....hmm...2 premiership players, both in reasonable form. Cats will win. They are better, they have a better side, and the Saints haven't got Reiwoldt. Can't tip them. Cats by 34 in an anti-climax. Upset chance 30%

Swans v Pies -Running with the ins and outs theme, the Pies exchange like for like (thats all they tend to do anyway because most of the players are the same), but the Swans bring in two very important players in Bradshaw and Shaw, for some kids. The Pies own the Swans, but something feels different for me on this one. The Swans are playing differently, and I like it. But when you look at their results, they beat teams below them and lose to those above. They lost to all in the top 5 barring the Pies who they haven't played yet. So where do the Pies fit? Top 4. Based on that trend and also the owning issues I have to tip the Pies. I want to tip the Swans for the upset, but I can't do it. Pies by 24 upset chance 45%

Crows v Dees - This is another hard game. Dees haven't won forever in Adelaide. Adelaide is just dodgey. However what Adelaide has done is win at home the last 3 times they played there, and their formline since their first win, has been win, loss, win, loss, win, loss. They are due for a win and its at home. Since their winning streak ended the Dees are 1-1-5, and their win was by all of 1 point. Its hardly a flattering formline. Sure they took the Pies to a draw, but those two always seem to have tight games. Its at home for the Crows and the Dees formline at AAMI and of late is a concern, so I'm going the Crows by 26. Upset chance 35%

AFL Round 13 Review Part 1

Hawks d Dons by 16. The Hawks dominated early (after conceding the first couple) but didn't put as much pressure on the scoreboard as they should have, kicking 5.7 to 3.1 in the first. A tight second quarter had the Bombers showing a bit of fight, and nailed some crucial late goals to reel in an expanding lead, but it was the third where they finally got their groove and dominated the game, but again the Hawks poor kicking assisted. The last quarter was one of the best quarters of the season. Essendon took their third quarter form into the last and blew the Hawks away early grabbing the lead via their hard running and pressure. But then the Hawks hit back with 5 goals, 4 of them brilliant, to snatch back the lead and win deservedly win the match.

Dockers d Blues by 9. This was a very unusual game. Freo for the most part looked the better side (the loss of Murphy before the game and Kreuzer during it didn't help either), but Carlton helped that perception with woeful goal kicking. Freo moved the ball from defence up forward with ease and really made the most or it, at least scoring shot wise, scoring 26 times out of 42 entries. The Blues defence was non-existant and the Freo forwards were gifted with plenty of space. Contrastingly at the other end the Blues got it in plenty, but Freo's defence was resolute with hard tackling and relentless pressure. However the Blues also squandered opportunities with 27 scoring shots from 55 opportunities. It probably came down to poor kicking costing a side the game. 2.12 at half time for the Blues was always going to be tough to come back from, and they did very well to kick 10.3 in the second half, but it was to no avail.

Tigers d Lions by 19. This was always going to be a tough game for the Lions. As I said in the preview, no Brown and an uninspired Fev couple with bad form was going to make them an easier than normal task. And it certainly helped that their second best player, Black, was a late withdrawl. The Tigers jumped them early and really were in control for most of the game, barring the third where the Lions threatened to come back. But a spirited 5 goal to 4 last quarter saw them take the choccies and win another game away from home. The Lions battled hard, but sadly for them they simply couldn't cover the loss of Brown and Black, they have little depth and its beginning to show.

North d Port by 36. Wow, I was only one point off with my prediction. It was a closish contest for most of the game, but one that North controlled and extended to around 30 points. The Power came hard in the last to reduce the margin to within 3 goals, but North responded as they had all day to win it in a canter. Big surprises of the day were Jay Schulz kicking 7 (that's right 7!) and Hansen the defender come forward kicking 5.

Dogs d Eagles by 60. Yes it was close upto half time, and even gettable at 3/4 time, but then the floodgates opened and out stormed the Dogs. They wiped the floor with the Eagles. It was a slaughter. 6 goals 7 behinds to a solitary goal. That is a shellacking. Oh, and I picked this one on the nose...60 points. Happy me.

That's it for the first half of the split round. So far, 5 from 5 tipping. Who would have thought? I had it on good authority that the Blues were going to win, glad I ignored that.

AFL Preview Round 13 Part 1

Hawks v Dons - The Hawks are in good form, but really, so are the Bombers. There is no shame being flogged by the Cats, and prior to that was a close loss to Sydney and 3 wins in a row. However the losses came without Hille and I think he is a massive out, as he is probably their most important player. Hooker in is a good in for the Hawk talls though. The Hawks just keep winning. They were very good against a poor side last week and they bring in two quality players in Young and Bateman. both are runners and that will help the Hawks counter the Dons run and gun style. All up the Hawks have slowly been cobbling their team together, and it is gelling much better. I think they'll reverse the trend due to a ruck equality they didn't experience earlier in the year, and because their midfield is starting to actually work. another factor is the Geelong factor, teams that play them lose the next week, and that's the Bombers. Young bodies will be beaten and still feeling it. The Bombers can win though, if they play their do or die running style to perfection. Hawks by 28. Upset chance 40%

Blues v Dockers - This is a really tough one to tip. Freo has been up for most of the year, but are now coming of 2 losses and facing a Carlton side that has been strengthed by some good ins but structurally changed due to O'Helpless being out. Freo has brought some decent players in but can they win on the road against a Blues side keen for redemption after a shocker last week? I honestly don't know. This is one that could easily go either way. If Freo can win the middle and Pav stands up, they'll win. If Carlton win the middle and they can do without O'Helpless structurally, they'll win. Another factor, that perhaps is a bit silly is that Carlton have a win loss pattern of 2 wins then a loss, well they had a loss last week so it should be a win this week. However just as silly (in more ways than one) is that Freo have lost 2 in a row, and they are at least this year in unknown territory, not having done that or obviously 3 in a row. Flip a coin and its the Dockers by 1. Upset chance 50%

Lions v Tigers - The Battle of the Big Cats looms as a huge encounter for both sides. Can the Tigers build on their winning ways and make it 3 from 4? Can the Lions recover from ineptitude? I want to tip the Lions because they should be better and its at the Gabba. I want to tip the Tigers because they honetly have been much better, but can a young side that is learning the game plan keep winning? The Lions got flogged last week and have named an unchanged lineup. That means they have too many injuries or out of form players. Surey they have to bring someone in after that, but no. I'm tipping the Tigers (with no great confidence) because the Lions have looked lost without both tall targets, and the tigers midfield may actually have the overall edge. Tigers by 12. 50%

North v Port - The Roos continue to defy critics and keep winning. Well here is there chance to actually do what they are expected to. Port is a shambles and they have lost some imporant players, Salopek and Ebert, their only real forward. North will win becuase they are a better team, in better form, at home. Roos by 35, upset chance 15%

Eagles v Dogs - Speaking of shambles, hello Eagles. This game is a carbon copy of the North Port game, except the Eagles have the significant home ground advantage. However it won't make a difference. The Dogs must win and win well because that is the expectation. Whilst the Eagles were crap last week, they were actually handy against Geelong the week before. Still, that doesn't matter, Dogs by 60, upset chance 10%.

AFL Mid-season Review - Western Bulldogs

Western Bulldogs 7-5 5th
The Doggies are a yo-yo, up and down and walking (the dog - bad pun I know, but couldn't help myself). They win some good games, but put in some shockers. The fact they are 7 and 5 shows they are some sort of quality, and their only 1 game out of the 4 so things must be OK. But that's part of the problem, the Dogs aren't supposed to be OK, they're supposed to be damned good. They're supposed to be top 2, not chasing a spot in the 4.

So where has it gone wrong? To much Hall is not a good thing. They finally found their missing piece in Hall, and he has been terrific, but the Dogs have sacrificed their game style to accommodate him. That and the fact that too many have dropped off, and others haven't quite stood up. Age and injury are playing a big part for sure, but my biggest concern is that the next wave haven't quite come up.

However, they have done enough to still be a challenger. They have a mix of easy and tough coming up with West Coast, Hawthorn, Carlton, Port and Freo. They need to come of that with maybe 1 loss tops to be a real challenger. I think its going to be hard, and perhaps they might miss out. 4-7

AFL Mid-season Review - West Coast

West Coast 3-9 14th
A premiership in 2006, a mere 4 years ago, is a distant memory. Champions have departed or are broken, bit players can't player their bit. This is a different side, a side rebuilding like many others at the moment.

However, that isn't an excuse for being woeful, and that is what they have been. The loss to Richmond was the anti-icing on the cake. The Weagles are completely out of sorts. Their kids don't look brilliant, their old players look old, and NicNat is very very overhyped because he is raw.

The sad thing for fans is that its only going to get worse. With games against the Dogs andPies in the next two weeks, before a very winnable clash of the titans, Adelaide in Subi. Realistically they won't win many more. At best 3 out of the remaining 10 with their most likely wins against Adelaide, Brisbane, Port Adelaide and North Melbourne. And frankly none of them will be easy. 13th to 16th

AFL Review Round 12

Roos d Blues by 29. On Friday night, those privileged to see the game were treated with one of the great individual performances of the year. Lindsay Thomas collected 20 possessions including a Bartlett like 19 kicks, 8 tackles, 4 contested marks and 7 goals. It was simply superb. He was ably assisted by an even midfield performance and a brilliant rebounding and defending backline. The Roos had winners all over the ground and the Blues, well, they didn't. The much heralded midfield, seemed ineffective and other than in clearances where the dominated just couldn't win around the ground. Gibbs was there most effective mid and he also played a lot of the time down half back. As for the forward line, it consisted of one player, Betts, who kicked 5 but he wasn't supported.

Hawks d Crows by 47. Super impressive display from the Hawks. They started with a fantastic first quarter full of intent, and probably should have been further in front such was their dominance. Adelaide fought back strongly breaking the shackles of the zone with some impressive run and carry through the wings, and their forward line started to look potent. The third was a tough tussle where neither team gain ascendancy and whilst the Hawks had the upper hand by 20 points it felt that either team could step up. Sadly for the Crows fans it was the Hawks that did. Several goals from slick centre clearances blew Adelaide away within 5 minutes, and then it just became a matter of margin. The Hawks looked very good especially in the 1st and last with Hodge (again), Lewis, Sewell and Rioli particularly stepping up in the midfield (well supported by good rucking from Renouf and Skipper). The forward line was exciting and varied with lots of options too. Adelaide often couldn't find a way through and it took a while for Walker and in particular Tippet to assert themselves.

Cats d Bombers by 71. Typical Cats demo job. Actually that isn't fair. They were tremendous. Sure there was a brief test in the 2nd, but as usual against the Cats it was to no avail. The Cats coped just fine without Mooney and Hawkins. Varcoe was the surprise packet who capitalised and kicked a minor bag. The Bombers were just not good enough. They don't have the skill, talent or strength. They just didn't really look threatening except for that brief period in the 2nd.

Swans d Port by 38. The game was tight and alive in the first, but a brilliant 2nd term where the Swans kicked 7 to 2 pretty much ended the game. 4 goals to 2 in the last half was more than enough to demonstrated the Swans dominance. The Power were simply blown away in the second. They just aren't good enough without their best 22. Their forward line is not functioning, illustrated by the lack of multiple goal kickers.

Tigers d Eagles by 49. Another amazing effort by an individual. Reiwoldt kicked an amazing 10 goals to continue his rich run of form, including 5 in the first 20 minutes. The man is a contested marking machine and is now one of the dominant forwards in the game. The game was over at half time with the Tigers 8 goals in front. The Tigers dominated in the midfield and provided the supply that Riewoldt needed. Conversely the Eagles just didn't get enough ball into theirs.

Dogs d Lions by 65. Ritual slaughter anyone? Too good all over the ground. A talented midfield beat a pedestrian one, a varied forward line with the dominant big man beat an average defence, and the defence stood tall against a shambles of an attack.

Saints d Freo by 18. A great win by the Saints in enemy territory. They controlled the first half and managed to hold off Freo in the last. 25 scoring shots to 17 demonstrates the control that they had, and they got a well deserved win.

Dees v Pies Draw. What an amazing game. The Pies were on early and they dominated the play but didn't do enough on the scoreboard. The Dees busted a gut to get back into the game and were brilliant. So who should have won? Pies supporters will point to the behinds and woeful kicking for goal, but welcome to reality; bad kicking is bad football. There is no excuse for it, so don't point to it. And the Dees, well they were jumped early and fought to get back into it, but in the last quarter a few poor decisions allowed easy goals to the Pies. Who won, I can't resist, football won.

So what did it mean?

1. North Melbourne - Huge result that puts them on equal footing, still, with their peers hovering around the 8. A loss would have seen them drop away and for them to remain a hope this season they need to stay in touch.

2. Hawthorn - The Hawks roll on. This was probably their 2nd best win of their streak of 5. They're doing all they can and they're looking better. Players like Roughead and Ellis found some form, and importantly fringe players like Muston played their roles (run with Johncock) very well. They come up against Essendon (sans Hille) next week and should they win they'll be well set to launch into a grueling last half of the season.

3. Sydney - Big win away from their own dung heap. Whilst Port is in freefall at the moment, its always a challenge to beat them at their home. The Swans did it well and that ensures they maintain a gap of a game from the chasing pack. A tough game against the Pies is what awaits them after the break. They haven't beaten the Pies in years (2005 was their last win) losing the last 8 in a row.

4. Western Bulldogs - Huge win for their confidence, and exactly the result that they needed against a team that is a significant class drop below them. They now, like the Swans, are one game ahead of the pack and still in touch with the top 4. They'll need to keep their run of form as the pack is too close to allow for stuff ups.

5. St Kilda - Perfectly positioned now with half a game clear of third, and doing it all without Reiwoldt. He's getting closer to a return and he'll only make this side much better. So what now, the Cats. Huge match. Will the Cats have any of their many injured back? Will it make a difference? Should be a cracker.

6. Richmond - A fantastic win and finally one that their supporters could witness first hand. A confidence booster that will hopefully spawn more wins (not too many more though) for the rest of the year. This year is just a launch pad for significant improvement next year.

7. Melbourne - Spirited performance which they should be proud of, once they get over the emptiness of the draw. They took it up to a top 4 team but couldn't quite get the biscuits. Great showing by a developing club. Plenty to like for the future. With performances by West Coast, Adelaide and Port recently the Dees focus will be to lift themselves out of the bottom 4.

8. Geelong - They keep rolling along and making sure they do everything right. Tick the boxes, move on.

9. Essendon - They would be disappointed that this game was over mid way through the third. They needed a stronger showing, however, it was Geelong. They beat everyone anyway. Still, they needed this game to stay in touch with their peers, now they are a game down on 8th. Huge match against the Hawks next week.

10. Adelaide - They weren't desperate enough for 4 quarters, and for a team in their situation there is no excuse for that. However, they did play 2 good ones, but just were not a match across the ground. Its disappointing they couldn't string 2 wins together but since their shocking start their pattern as been win followed by loss. They go into their break now, and when they return, hopefully their injury list will be shorter so they can do the right thing for their fans and themselves and gather at least a half season of respect.

11. Brisbane - Bad loss. They needed the win desperately but frankly are showing true colours. Losing Brown before the game didn't help, but he's been injured and it just demonstrates how few others they have to stand up. More evidence that Voss's tactic of recruiting duds enmasse didn't work, and consequently they need to go back to the rebuild in 2011. Dark times ahead methinks, especially with GC coming into their turf next year.

12. West Coast - This was an opportunity to get ahead of Adelaide by a game, and one they let slip. It confirms their status as bottom 4. Serious rethink will be needed at the club, and whilst Worsfold is supposedly safe due to contract in 2011, they need to keep rebuilding and cut the duds hard this year.

13. Port Adelaide - As I said above, they are in freefall. They've now lost 5 in a row including to bottom 4 aspirants Richmond and Melbourne. They way they are going and with some tough games coming up they'll be fighting to stay out of the bottom 4.

14. Collingwood - Devastating result. A game they should have won based on form and quality and now they are half a game below the Saints (in 2nd). They get the rest now and should take a good look at themselves before starting the home run against Sydney after their break. Still, in the end I suppose it means nothing as they'll finish top 4.

15. Fremantle - Tough loss against a peer, especially at home. The pack below is circling and waiting for another slip, and its something Freo has to be mindful of after 2 losses in a row. They must respond against Carlton in Melbourne next week, or the questions that have haunted this club all year will gather momentum. If they lose they'll then be equal 4th potentially with not only the Blues but also the Dogs and Swans if they get wins.

16. Carlton - Devastating loss for the Blues. A win would have meant equal 4th place, but the loss consigns them to that next rung of teams. Interestingly this loss continued their trend of win 2 lose 1, so brighten up Blue fans as it looks like you'll beat Freo and the Lions in coming weeks. Pity about the upcoming loss to the Dogs though.

AFL Mid Season Review - Sydney

Sydney 6-5 7th
They were simply stunning early on winning 5 in a row after dropping their 1st. So sitting 5-1 everyone was wondering how far the Swans? But a closer look at their victories, and with the joy of hindsight, perhaps they just beat the easier teams. 4 weeks in a row they beat teams in the bottom 4, their most credible win against Brisbane who were 5th at the time and their own rich vein of form, however we all know where that ended up for Brisbane. Then they came up against the legit sides in Geelong, the Dogs and Freo and were caught up short, and even beaten by a team that appears to be a peer in the Hawks. Back in the winning circle after downing the Dons last week, they go into the half way mark with a positive win loss and with losing streak of 4 snapped.

Its been a starkly different Swans with the stalwarts of Hall, Jolly, O'loughlin and Barry all retiring. This brigade is younger, flashier and more exciting. They take more risks yet still maintain typical Swans grit and hardness at the footy. They need more from Goodes and Ryan O'Keefe up forward. Both have been generally below their best, and if they lift more wins than losses will come.

During the next 4 rounds they have an excellent chance to consolidate their position with Port, Richmond and North, all beatable but sadly their hoodoo team the Pies as well. It gets tougher in their run home with games against 5 current top 4 challengers as well as the Hawks and the Lions away. They should break even or so by the end of the year and stay in the 8.

AFL Mid Season Review - St Kilda

St Kilda 8-3 3rd
Interesting season for the Saints. There is no doubt that they are a good side, but they aren't a great side without Reiwoldt. Since they lost their Captain they are 5-3. The last 3 wins have been against the bottom 3 sides, and their losses against 1 legit top challenger in Carlton but the other two against Port and Essendon and frankly, a very good side should lose to teams like that.

So they are not as good as they should be, and one reason is that their forward line isn't potent. Again, other than the last three weeks, they don't seem to be able to kick that many goals. However, their midfield is still doing well and their backline and defensive structures hold up well. They should finish top 4 but the biggest questions are about Reiwoldt. When will he come back, and will he be any good. If it is soon and as normal, they'll challenge hard in September, if it isn't then they may be bundled out quickly. 2nd-6th.

AFL Mid Season Review - Richmond

Richmond 1-10 16th
Its been a long year for the Tigers, and frankly there is no point dwelling on the negatives because there are lots. Instead I'll look at the hope that they have. Hardwick is a man on a mission. He wants a hard and committed side and over the last few weeks there have been some good signs. Tackling and ferocity at the contest were a hallmark of the Port Adelaide win, and they seem to have gained confidence from that. Its taken time, but every now and again there are glimpses of game plan and its great to see running football from the Tigers. Reiwoldt is obviously a massive plus. He is taking contested marks at every turn and actually starting to hit packs as opposed to being a lead up target as he was previous to this year. He's not quick but has sure hands and that invites the ball to be kicked long to him. One on one he is very hard to stop. However other forward line options must develop. Their midfield is exciting and maturing at a rapid rate. Delidio is a class player who will benefit from others like Cotchin and Martin learning the game, and lets not forget Jackson and Foley. Their defence has some positives too, but for the most part they need to develop bodies. One last player to harp on, Angus Graham. I saw him live a couple of years ago I think and he was awful. Really. But this year he is a massive unit that is a good ruckman and forward option and he'll only get better with time.

They will finish last, there is no doubt of that. But they need to give their fans something to cheer about so a couple more wins would be great. But it would be negligent of the club to win more than 4, because even though their priority pick would be low, they would still be better to have it rather than not.

AFL Mid-season Review - Port Adelaide

Port Adelaide 5-6 11th
Ah the enigma that is Port Adelaide. Last year they were soft. This year they were hard for the first 7 rounds (baring a Geelong flogging they copped) and were sitting pretty with a 5-2 record. Things were great. They were hard, Laidley was a genius who was the obvious mastermind, Williams was coaching better, everyone loved everyone else, and then, Tredrea went down. Who would have thought that one aging warrior, legend of the club with a dicky body, would bring down a club. Not even I did (mainly because I haven't rated him for years and expected him to go down sooner rather than later). And I admit its simplistic to say its all Tredrea, because they have had other injuries, internal suspensions and a massive loss of confidence.

They've lost 4 in a row now and suddenly after their bright start look lost. Frankly I still don't rate them. They have disfunctional forward line that seems to now rely on the mercurial Motlop and a midfield that just isn't quite good enough even though individually there is some good talent. At least their backline has some real promise. Carlile and Chaplin have been fantastic and have been reasonably well supported.

Still, for 2010 they have a better chance than most to grab a finals spot. 6 games out of 11 at AAMI and if they can stay thereabouts after facing Freo, Pies and Dogs in a row (finishing in round 16) they will deserve to be remaining in the hunt. Sadly, I doubt it. 7th - 13th. Things could get ugly.

AFL Mid-season Review - North Melbourne

North Melbourne 5-6 12th
Another young developing side. It seems to be the way it is, your either geared for a challenge or your developing. There is no in between even if there is on the ladder. North remind me a lot of Melbourne but without the number 1 draft picks. They've made up for it with excellent drafting in recent years without the gift. However, they have exactly the same issues. Older players leading the way whilst younger ones develop. The big difference is that their middle tier is just a little more experienced and probably are of better quality.

Whilst they have had 5 wins which is actually an excellent performance considering their most important player, Petrie, has been out all year, and have a single game comeback is injured again. And like the Demons they haven't beaten anyone of consequence, although their best win was a gutsy effort in Tassie against the Hawks. But the analysis here is about the nature of the defeats. 6 losses 4 over 60 points and 1 over 40. When they go down they just lose their way. Tell tale sign of inexperience.

Their prospects for the year are poor to middling. They will not make the finals, they just will not win enough games and their percentage is woeful due to the nature of their losses. I predict they'll be around 11th-13th.

AFL Mid-season Review - Melbourne

Melbourne 4-7 13th
They've been brave Melbourne, but more often than not that doesn't win you games of footy. You need skill, class, talent, luck and of course experience. And that's what the Dees are missing. Sure they have some old heads, and they have been super important, especially Green, McDonald, Jamar and Davey, but the next batch isn't ready or are treading water for the great white hope Watts (in case you missed it I'm talking about Miller here). Watts is an interesting case, an aside as well, but I think he's been harshly judged. Whilst I haven't seen anything to suggest that he is going to be a superstar, what I have seen is a tall kid that needs preseasons to build up. This is essentially his first season as last season didn't really count as he was still in school. Melbourne are pushing him too hard and he needs to earn his spot. Send him back to the VFL and wait until he starts kicking regular scores before bringing him back in. Big players take time. It's that simply. Franklin and Roughead looked lost in their first season and only started to find their feet half way through their second. Let's assess Watts at the end of next year to see if he is on track and shown anything to look forward to. Sorry, that topic has been bugging me so I thought I would get it out.

Right where was I? Old players doing well whilst the kids learn. It gives a few wins but really it makes no difference for this season. Melbourne will not make finals and frankly, most likely will finish bottom 4. Just look at their record this; after a flogging in round 1 they fought well against the Pies before rattling off 3 wins. That sucked everyone in. A good performance against a top 4 fancy that just beat the premiership favourite and 3 wins. But who did they beat. Richmond, last, Adelaide, second last, Brisbane (gone on to win 1 game, ironically against the Pies) since their loss to the Dees. And Melbourne? Well they have won 1 of the last 6 and that was by 1 point. This just demonstrates they aren't that good, yet. Give them time Dees supporters because there are some great players waiting to develop, but not this year. They'll finish between 11th and 15th.

AFL Round 12 Preview

Roos v Blues - Both are coming of good wins and both have eyes on what is above them on the ladder. Carlton has looked improved since Waite has returned and everything is clicking nicely for them, so much so that their injury list is looking reasonable and they had several options to bring decent players in. Interestingly they chose to only bring in one, and keep a winning side together. The Roos have also made one change forced by injury, but frankly Hale's form wasn't much chop anyway. North will battle hard but Carlton probably has enough on each line to take this game, and they have some serious class too. North are still developing, and whilst they have players that will be great, they aren't their yet. Blues by 30. Chance for the upset (the non-tipped team winning) 30%

Hawks v Crows - The Hawks are actually in form, which is a surprise to many considering 3 of their recent wins have been unconvincing, but a win is a win and they have 4 on the trot. The Crows have just 3 for the year, and really haven't looked that flash. A few big outs and a big in with Bock, probably doesn't match the in of Franklin for the Hawks. The Hawks should be good enough to win this easily, based on formlines and talent. They have a midfield that is starting to find some form, Buddy back which really gives their forwardline a focus and a surprisingly well performed backline of late. The Crows will have the edge in ruck, but it won't be too significant, and I wonder where their goals will come from (last week was one out of the box). The big question for both teams is who is going to run out. Hawks have been unconvincing, Adelaide are Jekyl and Hyde. Hawks by 35. Chance for the upset 40%

Bombers v Cats - The Dons will try to run and great the lines. If they do it well enough they are some chance. But, and its a big but, Hille is out. He has been their most important player over their last 4 weeks (3 wins and an excellent effort against the Swans). The Cats have their own injury concerns with a cloud over Pods and Mooney out. So both teams will be changing structure a bit. Sadly for the Dons we're talking about the Cats. They are simply too good for a mediocre team. Cats by 50. Chance of an upset 10%

Port v Swans - Port have been in woeful form and don't let their comeback against the Hawks fool you, they played for 1 and a 1/2 quarters last week. They just simply can't play 4 quarters and they are carrying too many passengers. Losing Tredrea hurts (as I keep saying) their structure and goal scoring options. The Swans haven't been that bad, and they got a great win against Essendon in a hard match. I think the Swans are a better side, but the homeground advantage can do wonders; pity Port hasn't really used it this year. Swans will win it by 18. Chance for the upset 40%

Tigers v Eagles - Battle of the cellar dwellers. Both aren't good sides and both are young. The Eagles have the edge on experience but the Tigers have been showing a harder edge. The Tigers need some more support for Reiwoldt, he cannot win matches off his own boot, and they need more scoring options. The Eagles need to do exactly what they did against the Cats minus the stupid turnovers. I can see this going either way, but I'm tipping the Tigers (still riding that high from when I tipped them successfully the other week) by 21. Chance of the upset 49%

Dogs v Lions - Tough game to pick. The Lions were dreadful for a half and brilliant for a half to just miss out last week. The Dogs are just all over the shop. Just when I thought they were coming good they lost to the Dons and Pies (no shame there) but its more the nature of the losses...exactly like Brisbanes last week; come from way behind. Its hard to win matches doing that so someone is going to have to try and be the front runner. Both are enigmatic sides, the Lions probably more so. The Dogs are definitely better on paper, but they'll lose this unless they screw their heads on straight. Their midfield should do well, but their forward line needs to capitalise. The Lions need to curb the Dogs mids and dominate with Browny and Fev and have a few other things go right. The Dogs will win it by 15 but the Lions aren't without a chance of the upset, 40%

Freo v Saints - Probably the match of the round (in interest anyway) due to their ladder positions. A win to either gives a valuable break, a loss and suddenly their closer to the snapping Blues. Freo have been excellent all year, and whilst they had a down game last week, perhaps they were ripe for the picking having had to travel and also deal with a legend's retirement. The Saints remain unconvincing and I question how their dour style will go on the big ground. Sandilands will dominate which gives first use to Freo's mids, which in turn creates pressure further down the field where the Pav lurks. The Saints will be hard at it but exposed for pace and have a one man forward line. Sadly it isn't Reiwoldt, but Milne. And they will not beat a quality side with Milne up front. Freo by 30. Chance of the upset 30%

Dees v Pies - The Dees are finally demonstrating a game style, and its worth watching. Like the Cats they use corridor when they can, but unlike the Cats they are inexperienced and young. The Pies in contrast use the wings and probably have the best rebound from defensive 50 in the game. They've also started zoning this season, and they've been very good at it. I would expect the Dees corridor use to fall straight into the Pies hands, and the Pies run away with it. The Dees really need their forward line to fire, and frankly aren't giving it their best chance as they haven't dropped Watts (yet). He has been woeful in the last couple and needs a spell. Their backline should actually do pretty well, and their mids will too, but structurally they aren't mature enough to handle a tight outfit in the Pies and they'll eventually be overrun. Pies by 30. Chance of the upset 30%.

AFL Mid-season Review - Hawthorn

Hawthorn 5-6 8th
This side must frustrate fans like no other. They apparently have talent oozing from pores all over, but looks can be deceiving. There are a heck of a lot of question marks on this team and its list. Yes they have more than their fair share of injuries but that has just exposed their depth issues. A lot has been made of their 1-6 start but if that is broken down in sections, perhaps it doesn't read as bad. They flogged Melbourne, and the margin should have been greater and they took it upto Geelong and the Dogs before running out of legs in the last quarter. Eade even went so far to say that the Hawk game was the hardest physical game for the Dogs this year. No coincidence both those teams lost the following week.

Then came a flogging by Collingwood and that was the beginning of the true rot. Another game they ran out of legs against North and also Essendon, which was the low point, because they simply didn't try, and the turning point. Whilst they lost to West Coast, they improved significantly on the Essendon game and since then have won 4 in a row. The worrying thing is that only 1 of those wins was a 4 quarter performance where they blew away Carlton. Every other game they got across the line, although against Sydney and Port they were in control fro the majority and were deserving winners.

Cooinciding with their streak of 4 was the inclusion of Burgoyne who has injected class, and Skipper, who has given the young ruckman Renouf a valuable chop out as well as providing some good effort around the ground.

They have winnable games against Adelaide in Tassie and Essendon sans Hille (important for the Hawks as ruck is a big weakness). Win those and suddenly the Hawks have 6 on the trott and have a positive win loss heading into their break. Can they actually make the 8? Yes, and if they do they will deserve it. First things first they have to win 7 of their next 11 (but every team with 5 wins is in exactly the same boat there). And after the break they have a 4 game run that could break their season; Dogs, Cats, Lions and Saints. If they are still alive, it gets theoretically easier with current peer games against Port and the Swans, but they are both away games. Just to top things off, their last two are against top 4 teams, Freo and the Pies. So yeah, like I said if they get in they'll deserve it.

They'll also need Buddy and Bateman to stop getting reported, no more injuries to key players and Roughead to find some form. The jury is still out, but perhaps Hawk supporters still have a little hope, after all someone has to make the 8 and their may be a couple of spots on offer. They'll finish between 7th and 10th is my guess.

AFL Mid-season Review - Geelong

Geelong 9-2 1st
God they're good. I often don't say much about them from week to week because its been said before. They just keep winning. Even last weekend, when they were challenged they do what they always seem to, find enough to get them hassle free over the line. Just to get over the preliminaries, their strength has always been midfield and defense. And neither has really lost a beat this year, or have they? Ablett started on fire and it was Brownlow number 2 sewn up, but of late he hasn't been his extraordinary self. Yes he has still been very good, but not as good as we expect. Selwood hasn't been as prominent as he was in the first few years of his career and Joel Corey can't get on the park. They lost Mumford when they didn't want to and that has left Blake who at best is an average second stringer, and Ottens who is a gem, but can only get up for finals because he is injured the rest of the time. Mind you due to that, Hawkins was given the chance to play ruck and he blossomed, not so much in his ruck work, but with the release further up the ground, which coincided with him kicking goals.

Their defense has been excellent for the most part, but notably their losses occurred when Scarlett was out of the team. Mackie hasn't stepped up in Harley's absence as I expected him to, and Milburn is looking past it. There are holes where there weren't before but they mostly go unnoticed because of one reason. And that reason has a name; Podsiadly. This guy has been a massive revelation to a club that has in recent times had a forwardline that wasn't considered anything special, but had enough supply and midfield support to do pretty well. Suddenly that changes. Pods has stepped in like he has been an AFL player for years. He overtook Hawkins in one game (as a KPP forward), and gave Mooney a deserved chop out. He gives them structure that wasn't as evident before, and that is just damned scary because they have been a peerless side for so long. But they just got better.

Yes I've said they have some potential issues, but they still do ok don't they? 9 wins is testament to that. Where will they finish? I would be surprised if it wasn't 1st, but I'll go conservative, 1st-2nd.

AFL Mid-season Review - Fremantle

Fremantle 8-3 4th
OMG! Never did I expect to be about to talk Freo up in this mid season 2010 review, but credit where credit is due. Freo have been magnificent. They've lost 3 times and two of those were to St Kilda and the Pies. Their other loss was to a retirement pumped up Adelaide. So really if you look at it, they're losses that have some element of credibility to them. However its three wins that have really made people sit up and take notice. 1. They beat the Cats. That in itself is an Everest climbed. 2. They beat the Lions at the Gabba. They've never done that before. 3. They beat the Swans at the SCG. this is undoubtedly one of the most difficult trips in footy, and they did it on the back of a big loss to the Pies. Freo my friends are the real deal.

However, they are just a tad reliant on 2 players; the Pav and Sandilands. Both have been enormous, this year and I think I may have called it in another post, but they could well be the first ever Brownlow medalists from the same team to share Charlie in the same year. Sure lots of players have stood up, in fact most of them have (Kepler Bradley anyone? The guy is a dud, but he comes in and dominates) and that has been a key to Freo's success, but its Pav and Sandilands that hold it all together.

What I really want to see is if one of them (or both) go down for a few weeks. How will Freo stand up then? Its easy to say its obvious, they'll fall over, but I want to know. I want to know what this team is made of and if Harvey can actually coach.

Their next two weeks will tell us a lot, St Kilda and Carlton. One a peer and one desperate to be a peer. 2 wins and these guys are so legit its silly. 2 loses and questions will be asked because it will mean two more times teams around them have beaten them.

Where will they end up? I would be surprised if they could take top spot, but realistically 2nd-5th.

AFL Mid-season Review - Essendon

Essendon 5-6 9th
Essendon have been an interesting side this year. They've beaten quality (well perceived quality) sides like the Doggies, St Kilda and Carlton but they lost to peers like Port Adelaide and Sydney, and even dropped a game to West Coast who are in the rung below. They are super reliant on Hille and Ryder (which is sad in its own right) as well as a quick by unreliable midfield that is ably supported by arguably their best player who is neither, in Watson. Their forward line is variable and in their recent 3 game winning streak it relied on the two ruckman kicking goals. Their backline is OK without being anything more than that. It sorely has missed having the combination of Hooker and Pears being available at the same time. I just don't see the talent or depth for this side doing anything much this year. Perhaps they have talent to develop, but really they seem to rely on too few.

They've won 5, but that's on the back of a 3 game winning streak. It was pretty dire before then when they were 2-5. Frankly that is probably more indicative of where they are as a team. They limped into the 8 last year on 10 wins, not even a positive record, and solely on the back of Matty Lloyd's hit on Sewell. That was THE reason they won that game. This year they have gone backwards, but there has been promise. Gumbleton has shown glimpses, as have a few of their younger unhearalded sorts like Hocking. But they just don't seem to have the talent.

I would be very surprised if they threatened the 8 and with games against Geelong and Hawthorn without Hille, I think they will be facing a big challenge. I suspect they'll be in the 11th-14th range by the end of the season.

AFL Mid-season Review - Collingwood

Collingwood 8-3 2nd
The Pies have been sensational this year. Simple as that. Jolly and to a lesser extent Ball have so far been exactly what they were recruited for, missing pieces. Both have added class and grunt to the midfield and Jolly in particular has lifted a previously pedestrian ruck set up to being a good one. Let's not forget Swan and Pendlebury for talent and class in the middle and an excellent cast of improvers to support them. Their backline is one of the best. They not only defend well but rebound brilliantly, with runners all over the place. So that leads us to the forward line. When its on its magnificent. Its energetic, unpredicatable, dynamic and any other positive buzz word you want to through at it. When its not, its small, weak with poor key position prospects that don't contribute enough on the scoreboard or anywhere else. Without doubt its they biggest query on the team. However, more often than not they do get the goals and that is caused by the mids and defenders excelling at their job. You give any forward line enough supply and it will reap the rewards, and they have. 7 games from 11 they've scored 17 or more goals (including 3 with 20 plus) which is a fantastic effort! The disturbing part gets to two of there three losses where they were just shut down entirely. The Saints restricted them to 4 goals (17 points) and the Cats 6 goals (14 points). And I guess that illustrates the uncertainty of that forward line.

But wait, there's more pluses, and to me this is the big one. Malthouse has been building a team of like skilled/talented players. The theory being when you lose one you replace with another and don't lose much if any quality. And this season, due to a brilliant run with injury, he's been able to do just that. The Pies look to have excellent depth. If a player is injured, reported or out of form, he is easily replaced. That is a huge strength for a club. of course they have been blessed on the injury front, so perhaps their depth hasn't been tested, but they've had the luxury of being able to get games into younger players and continue their development.

So where will they end up? If Geelong stumbles, they could finish on top, but realistically they are a monty for top 4. 1st-4th.

AFL Mid-season Review - Carlton

Carlton 7-4 5th
They started a little shaky losing to Brisbane and Essendon (after slaying Tigers, although its no coincidence Judd was out for those three) but since then it has been 2 wins followed by a loss. Quite simply they have had an excellent season thus far. The biggest concern preseason was how would they replace Fev goals. Well, the much maligned Ratten came up with a plan, and it was fantastic. Set up the ungainly Irishman, O'Hailpin, as a giant lump to bring the ball to ground and let the trio of Betts, Yarran and Garlett jump on all the spillage. Throw a fit and firing Waite into the mix for some genuine tall talent and class and a renewed Houlihan and suddenly you have a forward line of skill, speed and versatility. Thus far its probably the masterstroke of the season.

Amazingly they have beaten Geelong and St Kilda who anyone who didn't see the game through navy blue glasses would think was ridiculously unlikely at the start of the season. Of some concern are the 2 losses they have had since round 3, to the Pies and Hawks, both who smashed them.

They are an up and down side, but thus far there is a lot more up. If Judd stays fit (he is the key to this side really doing damage when it counts in the finals), Waite keeps his head screwed on and doesn't get suspended, and the youngun's don't tire, they have a real chance of shaking the 8 up. They've got a very good midfield, a good forwardline mix and a solid enough backline. If they hold together they'll do OK. Of course depth is possibly an issue and is yet to be really tested, and they wouldn't want it tested too much. They won't win the flag, but they may surprise and sneak into 4th, but they need to be able to extend their streaks from 2 wins to more. 4th-7th

AFL Mid-season Review - Brisbane

Brisbane 5-6 10th
They started with a bang and won 4 in a row, including taking out Carlton and the Dogs, both currently proving to be in that 4th-7th range and also Port in Adelaide. The Browny and Fev combination was working, the midfield was sparkling and questions of its depth disappeared. Then they got unexpectedly flogged by Melbourne and the slide began. They've won one game since, albeit against the 2nd best side in the comp, Collingwood, but essentially have looked sore and tired and challenged for depth, especially in the midfield.

Like Adelaide, injuries have cruelled them, especially in the back half where they lost key run and carry players and the big boys as well. Ruck injuries exposed a midfield reliant on too few and up forward Browny and Fev have both had their niggles, and arguably they both should have missed games. Topping all that, this is a team that stocked up for a top 4 finish by collecting expendables from other clubs. However, they aint no Swans (the masters of assessing players from other clubs). Even at the time, Fev aside and he fell in their lap, their other selections looked liked 2nd stringers or worse, and so it seems to be proving.

They need Brown and Fev fully fit. They need Leuenberger and Clark (who seriously needs to pick up) to be excellent. They need Black and Power to keep being brilliant, and their second string mids to lift. They need a fit and healthy backline and somehow have to cover long term injuries to players of the caliber of Drummond and Adcock. If all that happens they can do enough to make the finals, and when you are in, you have a shot. However, whilst some of those things may happen its doubtful that they all will, especially when they have 4 tough games in a row in one nasty patch, Carlton, St Kilda, Hawthorn and Geelong.
Their destined for a season of disappointment and will most likely out of the 8 in that group of try hards that aren't good enough. 8th-14th

AFL Mid-season Review - Adelaide

OK its officially half way through the season, so, as promised here's the beginning of a team by team analysis of the year thus far, and what hope each team has to actually achieve anything

Adelaide 3-8 15th
OK, their season is shot, let's get that out of the way. They have been awful (and awfully disappointing). They lost their first 6 games, 4 of those were 40+ point losses and at that point their season was done. In 11 games they have lost to a bunch of average teams (those fighting for a spot in the 8) and a few decent ones that are pushing for an end of season berth in the top 4. The thing is they should have won most of those games based on preseason hype. Since their first 6 losses, they've actually been better, winning and losing alternately. Their best win was undoubtedly their last when they took out Freo (a genuine challenger) last week.

So why are they so bad? A few big reasons; injuries have unearthed depth issues on the list. They've lost a lot of good players for extended periods and haven't had a settled side and those they are bringing in are underdone or not yet (or perhaps ever) upto AFL standard. I like to call this the Hawthorn excuse, because its the key thing that crippled the Hawks in 2009. The next issue is that their old players, who all (barring Burton, who should not have been retained as he was old and coming off serious injury) showed great form last year, but Burton is injured and frankly gone, Edwards slowed and looked lost and is now gone, McLeod showed some signs, but he was only half the player he was, which leaves Goodwin, by far the best of the 4 who is still actually demanding a spot. Finally Neil Craig hasn't brought anything new to the table. Its essentially been the Crowbots of old, yet again. Tippet hasn't stood up as expected and that hasn't helped changing their style.

They are pretty much locked into a bottom 4 finish, and whilst they say this isn't the year to tank, I disagree. One spot above a rival means your draft order is two worse than it would be thanks to the Gold Coast. 13th-15th

AFL Round 11 Team Assessments

Fine! Due to popular demand (or is it just whinging), here is the assessment of Round 11.

1. Carlton - A win they should have grabbed and importantly did. Due to the Dogs falling, and Freo failing, they are now 1 game out of the 4 and importantly 1 game clear of 6th. Big game against North this week. A win consolidates and if other results fall their way they may be equal top 4.

2. Sydney - It wasn't glamorous but it was just what they needed, a win to get back on the winners list after sliding badly, and similarly to Carlton, gain a game breathing space from the chasing pack. A win against Port in Adelaide and if the Dogs lose to the Lions, they jump into 6th and a game clear of 7th.

3. Hawks - It was damned ugly, but they did enough. Into the 8 for the first time since round 2 after stringing 4 wins on the trot. They haven't been convincing (barring Carlton) but they are wins nevertheless. A winnable game against the Crows up next and a game against a peer in the Dons after that. If they can stretch their streak to 6 then all the sudden they may lift above the pack a little.

4. Collingwood - Great win against a legit competitor (albeit one stumbling). Sure the last quarter wasn't anything to write home about but they did the job early and it was good enough to lift them from 4th to 2nd (thanks to Freo for taking the fall). They have Melbourne next week which should see them consolidate 2nd spot at least by percentage.

5. North Melbourne - They were desperate for a win and like the Pies, did the hard work early to save off a fast finishing Brisbane. Massive win for them as they are still in the hunt but with dreadful percentage. Need to keep winning. Carl and Port give them chances, but its unlikely they'll get both.

6. Adelaide - They needed the win to put some distance on the Tigers, and also to try to gain a little more respect by EOY. That won't happen and they'll definitely finish bottom 4. But they saw a champ in Edwards off in the right way.

7. St. Kilda - Need to win to stay with the top 4, only played the Tigers so it was bound to happen. Huge game v Freo next week in Freo. Need to win to demonstrate they are actually a decent side, rather than a Reiwoldt reliant one. Their record is middling since he went out.

8. Geelong - Meh.

9. West Coast - Really I should have put them above Geelong but they didn't quite do enough. If they lost by the same margin but coupled blame dreadful skills I would have. Tough work from here. May squeeze into the bottom of the chasers, but its unlikely. Very winnable game against the Tigers next, but it is in Melbourne, and the Tigers have been improving.

10. Brisbane - Only lost by a point which shows they are good enough to be in the chasing pack, but the fact that they didn't seize the opportunity consigns them to 10th on the assessment ladder. Dogs at Etihad next and that will be a tough assignment. If they are any good they'll win or go close. A big loss and I'm just about ready to put a line through them.

11. Essendon - Fought a hard contest and were hit by a massive injury in Hille. Sadly he is a huge part of this teams chance of success. Bleak times ahead, esp when they have the Cats next and in that context, they are close to the ink being run through them too.

12. Port Adelaide - Played 1.5 quarters of footy and only lost by 11. But in context their worst was woeful and their best superb. Need more consistency and won't find it with Treders out of the team. Lost all 4 since he went down I think. The MUST win against Sydney in Adelaide if they are to remain in contention for a top 8 finish.

13. Richmond - Just weren't good enough. They will finish last but if they keep getting valuable experience into their kids and sneak a few wins on the way, they'll be OK in a few years. To get 5 or more wins would be a sin, thankfully they won't have to tank to do that.

14. Melbourne - Very disappointing output. Not unexpected, but disappointing nevertheless. They weren't in the game at all, and now they slip to be clinging on 4 wins to the bottom of the chasing pack. They are teetering on bottom 4 and something unexpected. Just don't think they'll be good enough to get higher than 12th come season end.

15. Fremantle - It was a disappointing loss. Adelaide aren't much chop and Freo shouldn't have let this go. A win would have given them equal bragging rights with the Cats, the loss drops them to 4th. Need to win winnable games.

16. Dogs - Yep sure, talk about their fine finish with the last 6 goals (but didn't win), but the fact they were in that spot is the telling sign. They are all over the shop. The Essendon loss the week before was a worrying sign, and one I thought they would overcome, but now they are on 6 wins and a loss to Brisbane means someone in the pack below will catch them. A win and they still cling onto that separation on the ladder.

AFL Review Round 11

St Kilda d Richmond by 38 - I called fatigue as a factor in this match, there was also a significant class factor. It showed. Saints easily, and never really in question, even though the Tigers rallied briefly.

Carlton d Melbourne by 41 - Very comfortable win for the Blues proving that they are moving along nicely and are ready to play with the big boys. Simply, like the Saints, they were too classy for their opposition. Melbourne have some great young players, but they couldn't bring their A game against Carlton.

Adelaide d Fremantle by 23 - A surprising win to Adelaide. Surprising not only because they won but because they did it playing interesting and attacking football. I mean WTF? Where did that come from. Freo? Well they just weren't prepared for it. They battled hard but not enough players came to play.

North Melbourne d Brisbane by 1 - North beat them all over the ground early leading by 44 early in the third before the Lions woke and powered to take the lead in the 4th. The game won by a dreadful but straight kick from a tight angle by Levi Greenwood. The Roos showed real grit to scramble the win, the Lions should never been in a position that they had to reel back a 44 point deficit

Geelong d West Coast by 24 - No surprise in the victor but the Eagles were fantastic to keep the pressure up and hound the Cats all the way. If only for improved skills they may have won, but too many times they butchered crucial possessions. Another story of youth that needs to time to improve. The Cats looked off, not sure how much that was the Eagles, frankly I doubt it was a significant contribution, but it doesn't matter on jot.

Sydney d Essendon by 9 - A game that was tight all the way through with scores tied up at both half time and three quarter time, but 7 scoring shots to 3 in the last (even if they were mostly behinds) was enough to get the Swans over the line. A game by two teams that are in that middle bunch and it could have gone either way.

Hawthorn d Port Adelaide by 11 - What an ugly game, by two teams that like so many others, are in a pack fighting for 7th and 8th. Sadly these two didn't show any real qualities. It was a bit of a slog fest really. Port couldn't make the most of its opportunities early but stormed home int he third and the first half of the fourth. The Hawks did well to weather the onslaught and retake the lead that they had held for most of the day to get the win. Not sure if fatigue played a part for Port, but their kicking at goal was dreadful and they did seem to run out of legs late.

Collingwood d Western Bulldogs by 10 - A massive 2nd and 3rd term goal fest by the Pies where they kicked 13 to 8 goals set up a very good win. However it wasn't without a heart in the mouth finish when the Dogs rammed home 6 to the Pies 1, but it wasn't enough for the Dogs to overhaul the Pies.

Usually I write a bit of a spiel on what the results meant for teams, but this week I'll try to put together a little more on each team seeing where half way through the season.

AFL Preview Round 11

Richmond v St Kilda - I said it in the review last week, I'm not tipping Richmond this week due to the conditions last week. It doesn't help that their playing a Saints side that has discovered that its OK to kick some goals in a game of footy. Saints by 40.

Carlton v Melbourne - Big ins for both teams, makes this a tantalising game. Frankly its up there with Pies v Dogs for game of the round. However, Waite is the big one. He gives them a target, leadership and goals. He completes the forward line and makes it so much better. Melbourne have brought their gun kids in and the CHF in Bate which will help them too, but I'm going for the Blues who have a little more experience and class (give it time Dees you'll over take Carlton in coming years if you find a forward to complement Watts). Blues by 24

Adelaide v Fremantle - It would be very romantic to think Adelaide could win for Tyson Edwards in his last game, but what is really going for them other than that? Its in Adelaide? I think that's about it. Freo is firing and should pretty much dominate this game. Sandilands and Pav continue to be brilliant (I'm going early and saying their going to be the first joint winners of the Brownlow from the same club) and will steer Freo to an easy victory as the walls of the previous stable Crow house continue to crumble. Freo by 35

North Melbourne v Brisbane - A battle of the try hards. Brisbane has class at the top end but it fades quickly and has structural problems due to injury down back. BUT they're coming of a brilliant win. In contrast the Roos have promise, plenmty of it, but not this year and they are coming off the Freo trip where they got flogged. BUT its in Melbourne. Sigh. I think Brisbane is the better side but they have so many question marks over form and fitness its silly. I'll back them because they should be better. Lions by 20

West Coast v Geelong - Hmm, let me thi... Geelong by 60+

Sydney v Essendon - Essendon had a great win against the Dogs, the Swans had a small loss (but it would have been a huge steal had they won) against the Hawks. Swans are home at the SCG where they love it, but I wonder where they will get their goals and whether Essendons run will make a big difference. Being a small ground will they be able to run and carry that much? I'm going against the form line and tipping Sydney because they know their home ground and know how to play it. And if they play their game it will stop the quick movement that would let Essendon in. Swans by 12

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide - Big game for both teams. Port needs to arest a slide and will be helped by the return of Motlop and Gray and Brogan (late omission). Importantly all three will be rested (especially Brogan who is the key to beating the Hawks as he is a big strong quality ruckman and the Hawks hate them) from the Darwin game I've harped on about, however most of the rest will have played two very trying games (the second on a ground underwater) and I think the fatigue that they'll have will be a huge factor. The Hawks have lost Brown and Buddy, both have been in good form and the later is a star. Bateman is a big in though and will help to run a tired Port off their feet. Hawks have won 3 in a row and Port of lost 3, so I'm sticking with form and fatigue and going for the Hawks by 35.

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs - Huge game for both clubs. Pies coming off two losses including the shock against the Lions. Dogs all over the shop form wise, but come off a dreadful performance against Essendon. Both need the win to cement their spots. A loss for the Pies is 3 in a row and confidence going down hill, a loss for the Dogs means their form maintains the yo-yo and they get a further game away from the top 4 as it stands. Pies have brought back some experienced players, in Davis, Fraser, Brown, Medhurst and Lockyer. Some return from injury some from a spell in the magoos. On paper it makes them look better, but reality is everyone of those players is at the cross roads barring perhaps Medhurst. The Dogs however can't be as bad as they were last week. It will be a close one, but I'll go with my gut for the tie break. Dogs by 5