Finally the Grand Final

We're finally here. After 24 rounds, 3 rounds of finals, 15 eliminated teams we're down to Collingwood versus Geelong, and it should be an absolutely classic!

Ok, I'm a little over enthusiastic. If the Pies were playing like they were during the majority of the home and away season, yep I'd be right. But they aren't. Their form, whilst good enough, hasn't been that impressive. They got thumped by Geelong in round 24 in a game that didn't matter, except perhaps to their form and to Geelong's confidence. Then came West Coast, over here, and frankly the 20 point win flatters them. West Coast were right in it and were charging home getting to within 7 points before the Pies steadied and kicked it away. Then came the Hawks; what a wake up call that was! The Hawks came out with a gameplan to beat them and they almost managed it. Only the Pies fitness, aided by the week off, got them over the line with some vintage, if somewhat desperate footy in the last quarter. And boy did they celebrate. I wonder if that emotion is going to negatively impact them?

On the other side of the ledger the Cats pounded the Pies in round 24, put the Hawks away comfortably and then yawned their way through the Weagles.

Interestingly the form line (based on average margins in finals) show that since 2004 the 'form' finalist has won the Grand Final.

The Pies just aren't as sharp as they have been and the Cats are in their best form of the year.

Throw in the injury concerns with Jolly, no. 1 ruckman, and Reid, AA CHB versus Stevie J, a gifted, arguably out of form, half forward. Half forwards are replaceable (even if they don't have the talent of Johnson), the clear best ruckman and only viable (fit) CHB are not. Even if they play there must be some doubt about their effectiveness.

I'll even throw out the fact that the Pies have only lost 2 games this year, guess who beat them both times? The Cats. Yeah sure Pie supporters clinging to hope will say, 'we were robbed in the first game' (due to an umpiring error), and 'the last game didn't count', but last time I checked a win is a win, and they didn't get one. Oh interesting stat in both those games, Cats slaughtered the Pies in the inside 50 stakes.

So based on all that, unsurprisingly I'm tipping the Cats by a comfortable margin, let's say 38 points.

And just before the Pie supporters flood me with comments, I'm not saying the Pies can't win because they absolutely can, but they'll have to reverse their form and make sure they have 22 fit players playing damn well.

Who's take Charlie home?

Ok, a quick post just to get in with my tips for tonight's Brownlow.

Juddy, sorry he won't win. Whilst he was one of the stand outs for the Blues, I reckon Murphy was better, especially early in the season. They'll steal votes, and both poll well, but not well enough.

Goodes will go close. The question is on his early season form. He storms home though so I expect a strong finish, but no medal.

Swan? Not for me. The start of the year he was average. He may steal end of year votes from Pendles too, who for me has been outstanding all year and will be second in the count.

and...Mitchell. He can't win it, but he'll go pretty close after some brilliant games in a 10 week period, and he'll pick up votes in other rounds too.

But the winner is...G Ablett. I know the Suns only won 3 games, but he was just so damned good in every game. He'll poll a bucketload of 2 voters, and a few 3 voters like v the Hawks in round 24.

Dark horse? Cox. Was dominant all year, and after mids, rucks are the only chance to win it.

A Prelim Epic

What an amazing game! I just got home but thought I should just touch on a magnificent physical contest. Quite simply the Hawks were brilliant tonight. They pretty much played the best game they have played all year, other than goal kicking where they missed a few they should have kicked, but they weren't alone there.

However, as I texted some mates at half time, when I saw more hawks than pies with their hands on their knees, exhausted, the team that was the fittest would win the game. And that is exactly what happened.

For all their brilliant work at slowing the game when they didn't have it, all their brilliant work at making the Pies play in a way they weren't accustomed, and all their gut running and sheer desperation, they couldn't win because they were more exhausted than the Pies.

I was at the game with my 9 yo son and just before the start of the 4th we both said, we didn't think the Hawks would win. 17 points wasn't going to be enough when looking at how tired the Hawks were.

The Pies, comprehensively beaten for 3 quarters, saw their chance early, and they pounced. Swan who was magnificent all night kept on going, Thomas finally had some space, and Cloke, the man that pretty much won the game on his own running, marking and roosting forward in that 4th quarter, were able to get free because they could still run and the Hawks could not. They were dead on their, and its a credit to the Pies that they had the amazing fitness to snatch victory.

As I always say, the team that wins deserves it. And this is no different. But, without having seen tomorrow's prelim, whoever won this one, after such a tight tussle is probably going to be struggling next week.

One type of player can make a big difference

With talk of several clubs being interested in Chris Dawes, it got me thinking of what type of player each club needs to improve.

Adelaide - This one is pretty obvious, a key defender to assist Rutten, who is getting on, and probably partner Talia going forward.

Brisbane - with Mitch Clark bound to move on, and with Brown well past his best, KPP forward is the big one for the Lions.

Carlton - KPP forward anyone? Crying out for it.

Collingwood - tough one because they have a very balanced list. I doubt they'll target anyone specifically in the trade period, so I expect them to draft best talent available. but for sake of the exercise, I'll nominate a KPP forward. Brown is retiring, Dawes may be on the move, O'Keefe is developing but he may be better suited as a back man.

Essendon - midfield class! A speedy, skilled, inside, outside mid....or at least the closet they can get to that

Fremantle - KPP forward or perhaps another classy inside mid. Pav should play KPP forward, and in that case you need to replace him with the classy inside mid. But a KPP full forward would be just as good.

Geelong - Their aging on all lines, and even though Ottens is near the end, I think a KPP forward is key because I have no faith in Hawkins.

Gold Coast - hmm, was trying to think of something different, but heck, a KPP forward. They may have one in their list of kids, but a good one would really straighten them up.

Greater Western Sydney - name a position.

Hawthorn - KPP...defender. Pretty obvious. They need a tall, strong, negating defender.

Melbourne - Sorry, KPP forward. They have talent all over, but really that big forward is the thing they need more than anything. They just don't have one.

North Melbourne - Where to start? They have talent, but is it good enough? KPP forward (again). Someone to help Petrie out. Hansen hasn't worked, so they need someone else.

Port Adelaide - er..only one? Nah, bugger it...Ruck, midfielders, KPP forwards would be at the top of the tree.

Richmond - Ruck. I'm disappointed that Graham hasn't come on as he should have, and Vardy seems to be the perfect foil to Reiwaldt, so ruck it is.

Sydney - sigh...KPP forward. Reid looks to be a keeper, but there is nothing else.

St Kilda - speedy, classy midfielder. They need a lot more, but thats the starting point.

West Coast - they actually have a very even list, but another talent inside mid would be ideal to compliment Priddis and the not so durable Kerr.

Western Bulldogs - yet again, KPP forward. They have nothing up there.

Did I get it right? Let me know.

Umpires are bad for the game...

or so way too many Carlton supporters seem to think.

I don't know how many callers on radio I've heard, or articles in the paper (actually comments on articles on the Weagles v Blues game) that have moaned and cried over the hold on Walker and how it cost the Blues a shot and getting done by the Cats.

Get it out of your thick heads, umpires don't lose matches, players do. I'm damn well sick of umpire bashing and using them as an excuse for your own teams mediocrity. Sure, maybe the umps were over zealous and inconsistent between halves in the Weagles vBlues game, and yeah I'm happy to say they didn't have the best night because of that, but here is your reality...they made less mistakes than the players. That's right, players actually make more mistakes than umpires. Any behind, any turnover, any ball that doesn't hit is target, any free kick against (that isn't a professional free), any 50m penalty, and heaven forbid any idiot (Davies I'm talking about you) that throws down an opponent after a goal. All of them player mistakes, and a bucketload more of them happen than umpire mistakes. So get over it, and complain about your own team's performance. If they were good enough they would have won, plain and simple.

And then there were 4

Sydney, are a good side. Hard, even, competitive, give it their all. They just aren't any more than that. And it was proven once again against a very good Hawks side. The big question is, are the Hawks better than very good? They'll have to be to beat the Pies who have taken everything, bar Geelong, by storm this year. Based on the Hawks record this year, I doubt they are. Thus far, apart from round1 v Adelaide in Adelaide, they have lost to Geelong three times, and Collingwood once; they've haven't beaten a side above them this year. Its unlikely that it will happen in the prelim.

I had the pleasure of watching a cracking game of footy on Saturday night. The Weagles and the Blues were fantastic in their semi! Cut, thrust, parry! Scintillating and riveting football. But in the end the Weagles were triumphant. And in winning they get the honour of losing to the Cats. Let's face it there isn't going to be a miracle result in the this prelim. The Cats would beat either the Blues or the Weagles. Its a done deal. So much was won in the qualifying final, Cats v Hawks, essentially a Grand Final berth; the technicality of next weeks game will just confirm it.

For the Hawks and Weagles they have one thing in common, and that thing is what gives them hope. They're still alive, and that gives them a hell of a lot more chance at getting to the Granny than 13 other sides.

Fang's All Australian Team

With the AA team being announced tomorrow I figured that I should give it a crack. So without further ado:

B: Davis, Glass (vc), Gibson

HB: Scotland, McPharlin, Birchall

C: Pendlebury, Murphy, Dal Santo

HF: Goodes, Cloke, Thomas

F: Milne, Franklin, Johnson

R: Cox, Ablett (c), Judd

Int: Kelly, Mitchell, Enright, Fisher

So I supposed a little explanation is necessary. The back half has got everything, a genuine stopper in Glass, the best third man in the game in Gibson, plenty of run and carry and creativity with Davis, Scotland and Birchall.

The forward line has it all; and its mouth watering. The best contested mark in god-knows-how-long in Cloke, the virtually unstoppable Franklin, and if that weren't enough Milne and Johnson have even more tricks. Thomas and Goodes round it out, but realistically in this side their mids, because you can't ground this forward line.

And the midfield, my its superb. Ablett, Judd, Murphy, Pendlebury, and Dal Santo, all feeding off Cox, who isn't the best tap ruckman in the league, but he is the best overall ruckman.

On the bench, midfield depth in Mitchell and Kelly, and backline depth with Enright and Fisher. No forward? Why do I need one when I have scoring options a plenty.

Wonder how I'll go compared to the real thing? I'll comment back with the player (not so much positional) differences.

Heave Ho Freo!

So Freo sacks Harvey about 45 minutes ago, and now (10 mins ago) Lyon has quit the Saints. Who would have picked that? More sensational than Cornflakes being tipped out of the Saints coaching gig! Speaking of which...karma anyone?

Lyon obviously has rated the Freo list better (or closer to a flag) than the Dees, and no surprises, closer than the Saints as well. And you know what, he is probably right too. Freo were decimated by injury this year and are expected to be big movers in 2012 so I guess its the right decision by Lyon.

Certainly love the idea that this is so out of left field its caused complete chaos...

Dees, Dogs, Crows and now Saints looking for coaches

I do feel for Harvey though. Hasn't really done anything wrong, yet turfed for a 'better' coach.

Wonder if he suddenly becomes a contender for one of the other gigs? Personally I reckon he has done enough to get a look in. And I guess that is more chaos in the coaching conundrum. Will Harvey have enough time to get his head around coaching elsewhere?

Week 1, a dissection

This contribution is from a previous guest blogger, The Kosak (an unabashed Pies supporter):

Wow, a big week of finals, probably the biggest first week in quite a while. Three great games and a blowout on Sunday.

I'll go through them in order.

Cats v Hawks

Cats went in favourites and duly delivered the goods in the most convincing win of their 7 game streak against the hawks. On paper the team looked over tall but thanks to Ottens and the midfield dominance, the undersized hawks defence was exposed and exposed badly. None more so than Ryan Schoenclangers. Poor Clangers well and truly lived up to his name, conceding goals to whichever forward Geelong rotated through him and kicking some trademark OOBotF. Fortunately for the hawks, Stratton had a very good game in the VFL reserves and would have to be a sure thing to come in next week.

I think Tom Hawkins reads your blog because I have never seen him so fired up, angry and effective. Surely that was a one off, however, and he will return to his normal spuddish service next game. Cats supporters in the know have suggested that he loves the wet, however, so maybe it was the conditions that allowed him to be decent.

Ottens was damn near BOG. Monstered both hawks rucks and gave silver service to the Geelong mids all night, then pushed forward and was a presence in the goal square. After an injury riddled couple of years he has reminded the comp why he was considered one of the best.

For the hawks there weren't enough to stand and be counted in difficult conditions. To the point where I heard some bronx cheers from the hawks when Rioli picked up some touches late in the game. Hodge is one who can be proud. Kicked 2 goals in the third and tried to will his team over the line but couldn't do it alone. Lewis and Sewell battled hard and Isaac Smith had a torrid time of it but will be better for the experience.

Franklin was the only key forward on the weekend to kick 4 goals, and he didn't even play the full game. Great effort by him. The knee injury didn't look great on TV but by all accounts not a long term injury. Having said that, I'd be surprised if he came back this finals series. Bone bruising is very painful and takes a long time to recover from.

I will say this. NO team would have beaten the Cats on Friday night. Even their spuds played great and plodders like Josh Hunt played above themselves. They were in awesome form and are now deserving favourites to take the flag. Had the pies played them it would not have been pretty.

Pies v Eagles

My quiet confidence took a nasty plunge when Ben Reid was a late omission. Suddenly the pies were looking at a scenario very similar to what the hawks faced on Friday. At the opening bounce the pies had the following matchup in defence. Tarrant to Kennedy, Heath Shaw to Darling, Toovey! to Lynch, Obrien to Lecras, Maxwell to the resting ruck (generally Nic Nat). The pies were conceding a lot of centimetres and in the first quarter especially they were put under tremendous pressure. Did well to limit the damage to only an 8 point deficit. After that, the pies midfield asserted itself and the game looked safe until the West Coast surged in the last. A very nervous final quarter, let me tell you, especially with two very gettable set shots being missed by Shuey and I think Selwood.

Luckily the pies were able to dig deep, tie up the free flowing ball and then eventually kick the final two goals to finish with a 20 point margin that was a touch flattering to them.

So a tough win and I'm left wondering if the pies are papering over cracks or whether the week off will give a chance to regroup (with hopefully Reid and Thomas back in) and play their best football.

WC should bounce back and beat Carlton. I hope so, anyway. Their defence was excellent (Cloke and Dawes well beaten) their midfield was out classed but fought hard, their rucks were unlucky with injury and the forwardline struggled against the best defence in the league.

Definitely a game that was won thanks to the pies back 6. Toovey held a much larger opponent in Lynch to 1 goal (lynch kicked 3 but two of those while rucking and not directly opposed to Tooves). Maxwell came back from his broken thumb and played his best game of the season. Davis, O'Brien and Shaw just tore it up all game. All had 30+ possession games and trounced their direct opponents.

So Neon breaks the September MIA tag and does it in style. Damn near the best player on the ground.

On the rucks. Cox and Natanui clearly had the best of Jolly and Brown, but the pies rucks were able to be competitive enough to let the pies superior midfield dominate. Cox went off in the 3rd, but the pies had already established dominance in the middle by then. Interesting stat. Jolly lost the hit outs to Nic Nat by a big margin but in hit outs to advantage he was at 42% while Nic Nat was 13%. E.g. Jolly got beaten overall but got more taps to his team mates advantage.

Swans v Saints

Saints are shit, and now bundled out. What a joke of a club. Announced the retirmennt of 4 players only for two of them to tweet they hadn't retired (Eddie and Baker). In other words they were delisted (fair enough, they are spuds) but the club tried to pretend it was voluntary. Pathetic culture. Surely Lyon will jump ship?

Blues v Dons

Carlton destroyed the Bummers. *sigh*. I will give it to the baggers, they finished 5th, but when it comes to smashing under strength teams by huge margins they are a top 3 team.

Silver Lining.

Carlton winning means they re-sign Ratts. LOL!

So looking forwards.

WC to beat Carlton and beat them well.

Hawks to beat the plucky swans. They will do it without Buddy, but that might be a good thing. They need to become less predictable and find some more forwards. One thing I noticed on Friday was there just didn't seem to be anyone other than Buddy who looked like kicking a goal. Stratton will come in, and could Clangers move into the forwardline? Or maybe Lisle.

Should he stay or should he go?

Ross Lyon, the Saints coach, has an interesting decision to make. On one hand he has the known; the St Kilda footy club. On the other he has the unknown; the Melbourne footy club. So what's best for him and what's best for St Kilda (anything is better than nothing for the Dees)?

If he choose to honour his existing contract which has a year to run he is staying within his comfort zone. He knows the team, the politics and generally the lay of the land. He should know that his team is on the way down. 2011 will ultimately be a fruitless season by a team clinging on. The list is old and frankly pretty damned average. The reason they have even got to a clinging on stage is because of Lyon and his coaching. Whilst I hate how the Saints play, and by extension the Saints, and I hate Lyon's tactics because they are boring, they have been effective.

The better players like Riewoldt, Hayes, Milne, Peake(!?), Fisher, are mostly aging or broken, or both. The ones that are supposed to be good like Kosi and Gilbert, aren't. And there are not enough McEvoy's in the side to give significant hope. The core of players moving forward are fine players and should be in their prime, but there isn't a KPP in Dal Santo, Goddard and Montagna.

Essentially this is a team that needs to shed the deadwood (Blake, Baker, Kosi, Jones, Schneider, Clarke, Dempster, McQualter, Polo etc) and refresh the list in a big way. They need to set up for their next assault, and that is a few years away. Riewoldt and Milne probably won't be around for it so they need to groom the next forwards and the rest, for that time.

Effectively Lyon has had his first dash as a coach of the Saints. He tried, did well, but ultimately failed. His tenure in this cycle is shorter than my regulation 7-8 years, because he picked up a mature team on the cusp, and not one that needed to be rebuilt.

Does he stick around for the challenge? That's the burning question.

From the Saints point of view there is only upside, if they are smart. Lyon is a good coach, no doubt about that, and IF given the mandate to start again and rebuild, then Lyon would be a good choice (just like MM at the Pies in 2004). If they are stupid and want him to try to get a flag next year, they are just idiots in denial. If Lyon leaves, that's not bad either. They get a new fresh coach with the same mandate and they may just play interesting footy for a change.

What awaits him at the Demons? A good young list that is ripe for a good coach with a hard edge, and one that right now is closer to a flag than the Saints. He will reap the rewards of Bailey's mandate and extend it, much the way Matthews did after Walls' stint at the Lions; not that I am suggesting 3 flags await the Dees or Lyon if he changes over, but the similarities in young lists brimming with talent are there.

His biggest issue at the Dee's is off field. From all reports they are a basketcase in administration. We're talking about a club that was set not to extend the contract of its CEO and the next day sacked its coach instead and kept the CEO. On top of that the perceived 'boys club' is very much something the has to be broken for the sake of the club.

For the benefit of football in general, I hope he leaves the Saints to take up the role at the Dees, because he'll develop the Dees well, and the Saints might just become interesting.

Hand up who wants to play in the finals?

This week the Hawks went in with a massive 8 changes, all rests, and to 7 of their best 10 players and one, Bailey, who is the best in their position. Obviously it was an exercise in preservation of key players but also a way to test those players that are on the cusp, both in the current 22 and those playing in the VFL. So how did the the test of those pressing their case go?

Bateman - Sadly, the once great gut runner looks old and slow and no longer seems to have the tank to just keep finding space by running opponents into the ground. He was just so-so today, not terrible but not what you would expect of a seasoned vet. He is confined to the break in case of emergency case. I suspect he may well retire (if he isn't in contract) at the end of the season, he just doesn't seem to be upto today's type of game (unless he's battling injury).

Ellis - He wasn't too bad, not brilliant by any stretch but did some nice things and showed a bit of leadership and direction at times. Seems to be a link man, but won half his footy as contested ball and got in the clearances. He's a chance to hold his spot.

Ladson - He's not a bad player Ladson, but he disappears too often and when he tries to assert himself physically he seems to stuff up. Gave Zac Smith 2 goals from poor frees. On today's performance he doesn't deserve a best 22 spot.

Johnson - The former Dees ruckman, and current Hawk rookie, was just being played to rest Bailey. They can't seriously be looking at him in any capacity other than as last ruck standing. His tap work is ok, but he is useless around the ground.

Lisle - Just doesn't have AFL touch as a forward. I didn't mind him earlier in the year in defence, but as a forward he doesn't seem to have the instinct nor confidence. He's definitely not best 22.

Stratton - Looked a bit scratchy in his first game back from a serious injury, and to be fair that was expected. Still, at times he showed why he has been a key component to the defence and will be better for the run. I suspect the Hawks might go for him if he pulls up ok as he can play tall if needed against a variable Cats forwardline.

Cheney - Started as the sub and really didn't grasp his chance. Like Lisle he was better in other games, and he should have been able to stand up against the Gold Coast, but a couple of times was a rabbit caught in headlights.

Note: Mitchell was the other inclusion but he's a dead cert to play finals.

Of those that were in the team last week that could be cut:

Savage - Really poor game, just didn't find the footy. This was a great chance to shine, but he didn't grasp the opportunity. He'll be dropped methinks.

Osbourne - I liked his effort today, good forward pressure and a couple of goals. The Hawks forward line looks better when he's in form.

Bruce - He can't kick, but somehow, he was fantastic today. Hard running and willed himself into the contest. I suspect the Hawks team he played with today reminded him of his Melbourne days, so he felt confident. On today's performance, he can't be dropped.

Schoenmakers - Continues to make mistakes, but also does some very sound defending. He is touch and go, but maybe Stratton will replace him.

So in the end the ins next will be:

Hodge, Lewis, Sewell, Rioli, Franklin, Bailey, Brichall, Burgoyne

Outs:

Savage, Cheney, Johnson, Lisle Ladson, Bateman, Ellis, and...well I don't know..Stratton or Shiels???

Tomhadud

Tom Hawkins, once celebrated as the next big thing in key forwards has essentially proven very, very little over his 5 year career. That's right, 5 years, 76 games and at 23 years old you think that a player as hyped as him would have shown a something more, especially in a side that has been as good as Geelong for as long as this kid has played.

Hawkins as a player is best described as an opportunistic key forward. And he isn't a very good one of those with a remarkably steady 1.3 goal average for each of his 5 seasons (with only twice being a 0.1 variance).

What is so disappointing is that he does look the part of key forward. He is big, well damn well huge, has a great pair of hands, and a perfectly reasonable kick. But what lets him down is his work rate. This guy is a classic flat track bully. He leads only to the space that his glorious midfield directs him, he doesn't demand the ball. He takes pack marks, that he actually should and are perfectly set up for him, not the ones where he has to work. Case in point, last night demolition of the Pies he took a hanger in the goal square, because he was at the back of the pack and the ball drifted over the packs heads. It was there to be grabbed. He just doesn't make opportunities for himself.

He is at his best when the circumstance is favourable, and he is one out or alone. He can't cope with a third man up, it completely throws him out, but frankly why bother, this guy doesn't hurt you.

The other thing that I dislike is that he has no work rate. He doesn't work without the ball. There are no chases, just gentle jogs after an opponent. He doesn't throw himself at the contest, which he should with his big unit type body. He just stands around waiting until someone else does all the work and delivers the ball into his lap.

That's why he is an opportunistic key forward, and why if he continues down this path he'll continue to be Tomadud.