AFL Review Round 18

Bombers d Saints by 33 - hahaha, this is funny. How could the bombers win? Well they did it with run and gun against a Saints outfit that looked 4th rate. The game was over at quarter time, and I got so bored that I went to bed half way through the third because the Saints never looked like coming back.

Pies d Blues by 48. - Slaughter. Simple. Wow, I'm using slaughter a lot I think. Whats to say? Pies way too good for a classless Blues side.

Port d Hawks by 8. - Great win by the Power. Simply much better on the day and executed their plan to perfection. They ran a tired and disinterested looking Hawks team off their feet. Brilliant movement in numbers was relentless. Hawks are a better side than what they put out today. Looked out of sorts, and let a great opportunity slip.

Cats d Swans by 53. - It was periodic clinical Cats footy and at times the margin looked like it was going to be going well beyond 80 points. Essentially the game would be a real contest for 20 minutes, and then that Cats would go on a withering burst and kick 4 goals or so, and then it would go back to that contest. Whilst the margin suggests otherwise, the Swans weren't that outclassed. They had 2 more scoring shots, yet kicked 11 less goals. In accuracy cost them a lot.

Dees d Lions by 10. - Great win to the Dees. They controlled the game for the most part, but it became a fight when Brisnane started a comeback and managed to reduce the 31 point margin to 5. But the Dees steadied to win it by 10. Impressive effort away, and he Dees keep rolling along. The Lions yet again, have more soul searching to do.

Tigers d Crows by 20. - An ugly game in the first half opened up for the Tigers in the second with a 6 goal to 2 quarter that grabbed the lead after trailing by 19 at the main break. They managed to kick away 4 goals to 2 in the 4th to ensure the win. The Crows were dreadful, again, in front of the big sticks, and will be ruing a missed opportunity to keep touch with the 8.

Dogs d Roos by 78 - It was a game where the Dogs powered away to a solid lead, and though challenged in the second they virtually maintained it. The third was the turning point were running power and class finally put a decent gap between the sides with the Roos ultimately just not good enough.

Freo d West Coast by 75. Massive victory to humiliate their arch enemies. A 7 goal to 0 first quarter ended the game, but Freo, not content with just winning, flogged them. West Coast simply didn't give a whimper, and only when Tarrant go off did LeCras get off the leash to kick 5.

And the winners are:

1. Bombers - Impressive win against the team that are obviously their bunnies. That's 3 wins in a row against the Saints. David Hille makes an impressive return and proves his importance to the side and their structure. They ran hard and ran well and looked more like the side that showed patches at the start of the year. Its all a little too late as with 4 to go they are 2 games and % out of the 8.

2. Port - Huge win for their coach and for the club. They were on their knees just 3 weeks ago but suddenly are showing some resolve and fight and giving supporters something to look forward to. The team needs a lot of work though, there shouldn't be any illusions about that. But they showed some great signs.

3. Dees - Fantastic win away from home that somehow keeps there slim finals hopes alive. They are now a game and a half out side of the 8 and with teams above them failing to shore up their finals spots, anything is possible. They just have to keep winning and they could too, with Tiges, Hawks, Port and North to go. Its not the easiest run for a mid-ranked side, but its not the hardest either.

4. Tigers - a very solid win by the Tigers against a side revealed to be a pretender for the 8. It gives them a win off 15th and that little buffer could spare them the ignominy of the wooden spoon. Cousins was impressive and may have earned himself a new contract.

5. Freo - They needed to capitalise on other results, and did so emphatically. They are still in touch with the 4, and now are praying that the Dogs will slip up, and they don't.

6. Dogs - Solid win in the end and one that increases their % and solidifies their top 4 claims. Their form is coming good at the right time. However there are challenges ahead. A rebounding Adelaide in Adelaide with a last gasp for them to cling to any hope of September is up next. Now only 2 points from the Saints, who if they drop one and the Dogs form continues, will slip to 4th. Then come Cats, Swans at the SCG and lastly a revitalised Essendon. If they are the contenders we hoped at the start of the year the Cats should be their only concern.

7. Pies- Awesome display again. They are without doubt the form side, and did exactly what was expected of them. They've got the Cats next week in a battle for top spot. Gunna be a thriller!

8. Cats - A stock standard Cats display. Did what they had to to win, the margin was flattering. So now it is 1 v 2 next week to decide the top spot. Fingers crossed for a cracker.

9. Lions - They just aren't very good. The way they are going a win by the end of the season is unlikely and they should be getting guys into surgery as early as possible to get them into the preseason fit and healthy.

10. West Coast - sure they put in a shocker, but in context of the season it doesn't matter. It would have been nice to sneak the win and try to get off bottom, but I tend not to care to much about that, hence this rating. They seem to be like the Lions, shot, but at least they have youth all over the place (still need more KPPs tough).

11. Swans - They actually played ok. Ran well, kicked long but just missed badly. The loss, though expected was disappointing as they a win would have taken then above the Hawks and into home final territory and a game up from the struggling Blues. However the first point is perhaps moot because the Swans play the Hawks next week, and if looking at performance this weekend, and adding the SCG factor the Swans would have to be a big chance.

12. Blues - They showed nothing, because a last quarter burst to make their scoreline almost respectable means nothing. They are in big trouble and have a massive fight on their hands to finish top 8. Soul searching and talent searching required.

13. Hawks - Woeful display. Lost by 8, were leading by 18 in the third, and just looked to run out of puff. But there should be no excuses as they had there best 22 out there barring Brown. They were out played. A tough game against the Swans next week just got tougher. And I wonder if there is any coincidence that both the Hawks and Saints lost this week after a bruising draw last week.

14. Roos - It wasn't quite an opportunity gone as they were the underdogs, but the ramifications of the loss are significant. They just can't get a foothold into the 8 and they remain a 8 and considerable % out. But due to Adelaide's inability to grasp its chances, they remain 9th, and still a chance, but moves have to be made soon. 4 games to go include Freo, St kilda, West Coast and the Demons, in what could just turn out to be a battle for 8th.

15. Adelaide - They tried hard, but ultimately it seems that is what they will be in 2010, try-hards. Two bad consecutive defeats against less fancied opponents means that they have just about officially (if not mathematically) fallen out of a chance for the 8.

16. Saints - Mmmmwa. The sound of the Saints kissing top spot away. They should be stung by this horrid loss. They had finally worked out how to play with Reiwoldt out, and as soon as he comes in they are a draw and 2 losses. Its reminiscent of the Dogs when all they did was try to go to Hall earlier in the year. However they have a very soft run home (this was the 1st game of that run though) so they will stay in the top 4 barring a calamity of ridiculous proportions.

The top 4 is still alive with Freo getting a win, but the Doggies don't look like slipping. The battle for the 8 though is still alive because the Hawks, Blues and Swans failed to better their chances but North and Adelaide did themselves no favours. Melbourne the only team really pressing a claim with any semblance of form. funnily enough the business end of the ladder hasn't changed, other than Melbourne taking Adelaide's spot in 10th.

AFL Preview Round 18

Essendon v St Kilda - OK, the Bombers had an unlikely win, but circumstances conspired against their opponent. The Saints had a tough fought draw. Hmm, all that is irrelevant. We are talking about a very bad side v a very very good side. Saints by lots, lets say 45. Upset chance 10%

Collingwood v Carlton - Will this be an epic clash of two titans? Er, no. That was the early 80's and this is 30 years down the track. The Pies are one of the form sides of the comp. Very even on every line and capable of beating anyone. The Blues in contrast are battling to stay in the 8, and whilst they got a fortuitous win last week, it was far from convincing. Pies will put a hard tag on Judd, and it will be all over. Pies by 50. Upset chance 15%

Port v Hawthorn -Port got their first win under Primus last week, and they played good footy to do it. Is it a turning point? Not sure. The Hawks owned the Saints but couldn't get over the line. They played great footy, and ultimately are a better side than Port. However it is in Adelaide and Port have a good record against the Hawks, although its not as impressive in recent times. I'm going Hawks because frankly they should win seeing they are a contender. Hawks by 30, upset chance 40%

Sydney v Geelong - Sydney are in all sorts of trouble. A dreadful loss to Melbourne last week and excellent win against the Blues (no big thing really) and to North but a loss to Richmond really don't paint a pretty picture. Geelong are Geelong and regardless of where they play they tend to do the job. You just don't see average or worse sides beat them. Cats by 45, upset chance 5%.

Brisbane v Melbourne - Intriguing game, with Vossy already playing mind games and dampening expectations with his "Melbourne will be a super team" comments. Reality is that whilst Brisbane have been woeful and have no confidence, if Black plays and Brown and Fev can contribute, at the Gabba an inexperienced team will find them hard to stop. However, the Dees have found a tiny bit of form and in that they create a handful for the Lions. Form wins out for me in this one. Dees by 10, upset chance 49%

Richmond v Adelaide - Another intriguing contest. Adelaide were humbled last week after some fine form, but in their coaches words, we're actually playing that bad. Richmond was flogged mercilessly by the Pies. Have the wheels fallen off both of these sides? My guess is more that Richmond bowed to a much better side and Adelaide copped an emotional one. I tend to go with the rule of tipping against teams coming off a Showdown, but I think there is a bit more to the Crows than the Tiges, oh and a 9-1 record to the Crows in the last 10 is telling. Crows by 18, upset chance 40%

Dogs v North - The Dogs have found form of late and will simply be too classy for the Roos I would expect. Its not that the Roos are without a chance, its just that it is very unlikely that they would beat a contender who is ramping up their formline. Dogs by 32, upset chance 20%

Fremantle v West Coast - This is a hugely important game for both clubs. If Freo win, they stay in touch with the 4, if West Coast win they could well lever themselves off the bottom. Going in Freo's favour are their record against the Eagles (they always beat them), and the fact that West Coast is pretty dreadful. Freo should win, and there will be riots if they don't. Freo by 30, upset chance 20%

So if I'm 8 form 8 here is what the ladder will look like:

1. Pies 58 points

2. Cats 56

3. Saints 54

4. Dogs 48

5. Freo 48

6. Hawks 42

7. Carl 36

8. Sydney 36

9. Adelaide 32

10. North 32

11. Melbourne 30

12. Essendon 24

13. Port 24

14. Brisbane 20

15. Richmond 20

16. West Coast 16

And the only change will be North and Adelaide swapping places due to %. The big game for the ladder is probably Dogs v North. If North wins they stay 9th but on equal points with the Blues and Swans, and Freo moves back into 4th.

AFL Review Round 17

What a round! So what happened:

Saints Drew Hawks - After this game we should have known it was going to be an odd round. A draw was a fitting result for a fierce contest. However it was the Hawks that should be ruing their missing chance. They were the better team all night but missed goals and the opportunity to capitalise on a dominant display. The Saints got the draw through a combination of luck and Hawks incompetence.

Pies d Tigers by 82. Not really much to say about this. Tigers simply outclassed and no match for a tight knit and well oiled machine.

Cats d Lions by 63. Just like the Pies game it was nasty. The most important thing out of this game was a brilliant turn by one G Ablett. However was he just being a flat track bully, or is it really a form turn around?

Blues d Weagles by 26. At half time the Dark Navy Blues were down 26 points, yet a brilliant return led by their best player Juddy, sparked a 52 point turnaround. It was a complete reversal in the game and one that really didn't look like happening. Not sure whether to credit Ratten, Judd or perhaps some of the regular passengers in that team, but they got the job done in an important win.

Bombers d Roos by 3. Hard one to assess this game mainly because North made two emergency changes and then Wells went out with 6 minutes to go, meaning Hale, the opposite type of footballer to Wells, and one who had played in the VFL earlier in the day. Wow what a crappy sentence, oh well we move on. Really I think that was the main reason that the Roos lost, team balance, and lacking the interchange due to Hales fatigue (he got 4 touches for the day). And no, I'm not giving the Bombers much credit.

Dogs d Freo by 82. This was clinical Dogs football at its best. Hard running and devastating attack. Freo were found wanting, and there have to be massive queries on them now.

Dees d Syd by 73. Man that sucks! I changed this tip late on Friday because I thought the Swans would do what they did to all teams below them (except Richmond). I was wrong (not for the first or last time). The Dees were simply stunning without their attack on man, ball and goals. Where the heck have they been all this time? The Swans didn't know what hit them. And as one Blues supporter friend of mine said today "The Blues softened them up for the Dees. The Swans were just exhausted are killing us last week." By the way, thats not a direct quote, but you get the gist.

Port d Adel by 19. Adelaide has no excuses. I don't buy that rubbish about Josh Carr last game, nor do I buy that Port is better than the Crows. However, credit is deserved because they won and they beat a side that was in form.

So the winners, the grinners and the absolute deadbeats:

1. Carlton - was it convincing? Not in the slightest. Was it important? You better believe it! Because results fell their way the Blues are now equal 7th and a game clear of 9th. And really they had their backs against the wall and came through with flying colours. The downside was that they had their backs against the wall against a pretty bad side. Plenty more work to do. I'm not convinced they'll make the 8, but they did their cause no harm

2. Dogs - Huge win for the Dogs because they leapfrog the Dockers and are into the 4, and playing footy like that they won't lose the spot either. If they can harness that type of performance, the footy world will really take notice. Can't wait to see how it works in September though.

3. Dees - I thought it would be a 50-50 game, what happened was ridiculous. Sublime footy has lifted the Dees, at least momentarily, above the pack and away from the bottom 4.

4. Port - in the scheme of things its a nothing win. In the scheme of the club its massive. The arrest the slide and they did it against the Crows AND they may well have knocked the Crows out of the finals race.

5. Pies - predictable slaughter, but one that enabled them to hold onto 1st spot. Not much to say but they continue their excellent form.

6. Geelong - see Pies, substitute 1st for 2nd.

One small word. I don't think there was a coincidence that Pies, Cats and Dogs all had whopping wins. They are all legit challengers and its getting to the business end of the season.

7. Bombers- its kind of irrelevant, but with all the recent pressure on the club, just a small release may have been realised. In the grand scheme of things I still expect Knights' head to be unfairly on the block at the end of the year. He is a 3rd year coach with a crap team. Arguably Knights hasn't helped due to poor development and poor coaching but in all honesty the group he has to work with aren't that flash.

8. Hawks - it was a hard one to put them above the Saints, and whilst the 2 points makes it hard to get the elusive 4th spot, it does, due to other results mean they are still clear in 6th. But really they get the spot because they just played better.

9. Saints - they got the draw and frankly they should be happy they got that much. It means they slip to 3rd (or is it stay) and they are a game off top and enormous %. However, who cares? They will get top 3 and its just a matter of who they play.

10. Roos - They only lost by 3, in a game that they would have won had their start been more normal. But the reason they got to 10 was because Sydney lost which means they are only a game and % out which seems to be their story this year. It will be thrilling to see if they can get there.

11. Eagles -They had the game, and it would have meant a lot to home town supporters but they let it slip away. Still no answers.

12. Lions - Another dreadful display that is becoming a habit, however at least it was against the Cats in Geelong. Vossy has big problems though and he'll need more than a season review to fix this side.

13. Tigers - Is that it? Have they shown their yelp that excited us so much? Or can they fire another shot or two for the rest of the season? Personally I hope so, because the AFL is abetter place with the Tigers lifting from the mire.

14. Freo - So, so disappointing. Flogged early by a top 4 claimant. They were challenged for their spot, and they lost. Soul searching required if they can possible clambour back. I doubt they can. They need to make the most of the year and guarantee a home final.

15. Sydney - Should be gutted by a gutless display. They need to reverse this and quickly. One week they flog fellow top 8 aspirants the Blues and the next they get the same against them from Melbourne. They have a massive fight on their hands but at least have the win and % from North.

16. Adelaide - They're gone. Sure mathematically they can still make it, but so can Port and Essendon and we all know that aint going to happen. To make it they have to do something astounding because they have Pies, Saints and Dogs in 3 of their last games.

The intriguing battle the continues...

AFL Preview Round 17

Brief today

Saints v Hawks - Going with the Hawks. Saints have the wood over them, but the Hawks have pretty much a best 22 and are in ripping form. Could go either way, Hawks by 6 49% upset chance

Pies v Tigers - Pies are just too good. Simple. Pies by 43 20% chance upset

Cats v Lions - Slaughter. Cats by 60. Upset chance 5%

North v Bombers - Bombers are rubbish, North are decent. North by 25. Upset chance 40%

Eagles v Blues - Tough one to tip this one. I've gone Eagles by 20 due to home ground, and finding just a touch of form. If the Blues were on song I wouldn't hesitate tipping them but they have been dreadful. Upset chance 45%

Dogs v Freo - Dogs are starting to find some form (again, and yes I still have my doubts) but the Dockers haven't worked out how to cope without Barlow. Plus its over in Melbourne. Dogs by 23, upset chance 35%

Dees v Syd - Sydney are the better side, and they had a great win against an out of form side last week. But the Dees found something last week. Will the return from Subi be a factor? I don't think so. Dees by 15. Upset chance 49%

Port v Crows - Always a tough match, but I think the Crows are just in too good form and if they lose this finals is almost gone. Crows by 28, upset chance 40%

The Age has to be following me

First I post my "Battle for..." series of posts, now The Age comes out with: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/it-all-comes-down-to-this--20100721-10l73.html

And just in case you are curious:

Battle for the top 8

So we come to the last battle, and possibly the most intriguing.

The Hawks, Dogs and Freo have shown enough to make me think even if things go bad they've done enough. So it comes down to the Swans, Blues, North and Crows. sorry if you support anyone else, but you're done.

Swans - The Swans have been doing enough, but not yet beaten a 'good' side, just some peers and anything below them, except Richmond a couple of weeks back. Melbourne (away) is a tough challenge right now, the Cats will beat them, the Hawks are tough even at home, then Freo away, the Dogs and finally Brisbane (away). Frankly thats a tough draw for a team that has probably been a touch above mediocre all year. I reckon 2-4 is about right. They may sneak 3 or may only get 1. Their end of season looks to be about 11-11. Will good % let them hold on?

Blues - They are in shocking form and they need to arrest it quick or they are in massive trouble in regards to the finals. Can Juddy find some friends to help him? The Eagles (away) is a chance, but it should be a gimmie, Pies, Essendon, Richmond, Cats, Freo (away). Thats nasty for a team down on confidence. I could see them losing the lot frankly, but its probably more likely that they'll win a couple. 11-11 for them but a worse % than Sydney.

North - They refuse to die, but can they do enough to get more than 11 wins, because their % is dreadful. Essendon, Dogs, Freo, Saints, West Coast (away), Melbourne. I think they have winnable games there. Essendon and West Coast are almost certs, Dogs and Freo I think they are a decent chance against both, Saints they'll lose and Melbourne they should account for. I think they'll get 4 from that. So 12-4, wow...they're in!

Crows - Can they do it? They are a game out as it stands but in great form and confidence. They've got Port, Richmond (away), Dogs, Lions (away), Pies (away) and Saints. They should get 3 wins at least which takes them to 10, can they get a win from Dogs, Pies or Saints? If they can they might get in on %. I think they can. 4-2 gives them 11-11. Tied with the Swans, but I suspect they might not be able to get the % needed.

So afterall that, my ladder after round 22 reads:

1. Cats

2. Saints

3. Pies

4. Dogs

5. Hawks

6. Freo

7. North

8. Sydney

9. Adelaide

10. Blues

Whilst I'm predicting, here's the finals:

QF - Cats v Dogs - Cats win

QF - Saints v Pies - Saints win

EF - Hawks v Sydney - Hawks win

EF - Freo v North - Freo win

SF - Dogs v Hawks - Hawks win

SF - Pies v Freo - Pies win

PF - Cats v Pies - Cats win

PF - Saints v Hawks - Hawks win

GF - Cats v Hawks - Cats win

I certainly didn't expect to see that when I started this exercise!

There you go, afterall that you don't need to pay any attention to what happens over the next 10 weeks. Congrats to the Cats :-)

Battle for the top 4

OK so 4th is up for grabs and Freo and the Dogs are hotly contesting. The Hawks are the only team with a chance to grab it, and that is an ever so slight chance.

Freo - There form is one in decline. Barlow out and youngsters slowing is part of it, as are injuries. A while back their run looked good, but now with Dogs, (away), West coast, North (away), Sydney, Hawks (away) and the Blues, I'm not so sure. They have 5 potential finalists, and one arch rival (that honestly I'm not worried about for Freo, they seem to always do well against them) and three of those games are away. It wouldn't surprise me to see them with a 3-3 record from these games, maybe even 2-4. I'll stick optimistic and say 3-3 so at the end of the season they will be 14-8.

Dogs - They still haven't convinced me that they actually are in form (or out of form). They are just a bit "meh" for me form-wise. Freo, North, Adelaide (away), Cats, Sydney (away) and Essendon isn't the smoothest of runs. Like Like Freo they face 5 potential finalists, including the Cats. It will be intriguing how this turns out, because I can see losses to all those teams barring Essendon as possibilities. Realistically they should beat Freo and Essendon. they will lose against the Cats and maybe Adelaide if their form holds because its over there. I'll call a break even between the others. The difference with Freo and the Dogs is that Freo could go 2-4, the Dogs conversely could go 4-2. I went optimistic for Freo so I'll do the same for the Dogs, meaning 14-8 (with a good % they'll top Freo)

Hawks - They are two games and % out of the 4 but remain a dark horse. Their form is outstanding, but they have a tricky run. Saints, Port (away), Sydney (away), Melbourne, Freo and Pies. If form continues they get 4 wins, with the Swans being the tricky one. But that leaves the Saints and Pies. Both are winnable for different reasons, but I would be surprised if they did win both. Optimism is the way to go in this post, so 5-1 meaning 14-8. They'll miss due to %

Battle for top 3

Its an interesting question and these last 6 rounds shape up to be pretty exciting.

Battle for the top 3 - probably the least exciting of the 'battles' for the finals, because essentially it is meaningless. Its obviously between the Pies, Saints and Cats. I rate the Cats as the best side of the three but the Pies are in the best form. The Saints, I think they might just be struggling a bit. they haven't worked out how best to use Reiwoldt especially considering he isn't the player he was. In a few more weeks he'll be back to normal and the Saints should really be flying.

Pies have Tigers, Blues, Cats, Bombers, Adelaide and the Hawks. Realistically only the Hawks should be a challenge, however Tiers, Blues and Bombers are all danger games because they are the sort of sides that the Pies inexplicably lose to. And Adelaide? if their form holds true, even at the G it could be a tough fight. The Cats should beat them. I would expect them to drop no more than 2 giving them a season record of 16-5-1

Saints have Hawks, Bombers, Port, Richmond, Dogs and Adelaide (away). They will win against the non-finals contenders, and I would expect a win against at least 1 of the other 3, but I'll say 2. Gives them a season record of 17-5.

Geelong have Lions, Sydney (away), Pies, Dogs, Blues, Eagles. Only real threats are Dogs and Cats, and I actually think they'll win them all. 18-4 and top of the ladder is my call.

AFL Review Round 16

Crows d Cats by 11. Early on the Cats were precise going forward but Adelaide was winning their fair share of footy. Adelaide continued that form further into the game and the Cats seemed to drop away. In the end the Crows beat the Cats by being harder at the ball, running the ball better and denying Geelong the opportunity to play the way they wanted to. Others will learn from this one. Crows were simply magnificent, and shed, at least for the night, that mantle of Crowbots as they play past, furious and exciting footy.

Hawks d Lions by 75. Slaughter. Best word for it. Hawks dominated early and frankly just kept it going all game. Really it was an utter domination. 33 scoring shots to 8 tells the tale and the margin should have been bigger as the Lions kick 7 goals from those 8 and the Hawks 16 points. The Lions simply couldn't get the ball forward and recorded only 25 inside 50s for the match.

Pies d Saints by 48. The Pies started well jumping out to a 3 goal lead at the end of the first, and essentially were unchallenged, extending their lead at every change. Ferocious Magpie pressure pretty to which the Saints had no answer was the cause. But interestingly the scoreboard was a reverse of their earlier game this year where the Pies kicked themselves out of it with dreadful kicking on goal, this time around it was the Saints that stopped any chance of getting back into the game with only 6 goals and 16 behinds.

Weagles d Dons by 32. One outstanding performance and a bucketload of goals. Mark LeCras was simply amazing booting 12 goals of the 34 that West Coast and Essendon combined for. However it was the Weagles with the win, and pretty much off the boot of LeCras.

Dogs d Port by 36. A fast flowing uncontested game of footy, that was remarkably boring. Port were simply outclassed (unsurprisingly). They player with a bit of heart early but thaat was crushed in the 2nd. The Dogs looked solid for 3 quarters. but nothing more than that. They played a fast free flowing style but didn't really capitalise with poor delivery into the forward 50. They won't win any finals with that sort of uncontested stuff, thats for sure.

Swans d Blues by 39. 10 goals to 3 in the first half pretty much saw this game over. Paul Roos brought in some interesting strategies including playing Shaw as a one out full forward, he netted 3 goals to reward the coaches unusual plan. Carlton didn't show much as it made a multitude of errors and allowed Sydney to play the tough contested game they love.

North d Tigers by 50. A good win by North who finally burst the Tigers bubble. 15 goals to 7 was a tale of hard strong footy at both the man and the ball, and the young Tigers couldn't replicate their recent efforts to counter it. Impressively the Roos held Reiwoldt, the man who has been raining the goals down, to 3. It was a strong performance all over the ground with the Roos winning most positions.

Freo d Dees by 11. Freo jumped the Dees early and scooted out to a 45 point lead just before half time, but the Dees kicked the next 7 before a Freo goal to close the 3rd but the Dockers up by 8. In a remarkable 4th the Dees kicked the first goal of the term and then a point to be 1 point behind. And then the story become one of squandered opportunities. 4 behinds to Freo then a few swaped behinds, before Hayden Ballanytne goaled near the end to put the result beyond doubt. Thrilling game!

Ladies and gentlemen we have a ripping finals race coming up. The top 8 has another challenger in Adelaide, so 10 teams vying for 8 spots (OK realistically, 5 for 6th-8th). And a top 4 battle. Can Freo hold on? Finally there's the battle for top spot, any of three teams can grab, who will?

1. Crows - Simply stunning. Not only did they beat the Cats, but they did it with a wonderful attacking style of footy rarely seen. This is the sort of Crows side I love to watch. They are now one game out of the 8 and with 3 winnable games (Port, Tiges and Lions) to come they need to win won out of 3 game against the top four teams, Pies, Dogs and Saints. Can't wait to see how this pans out.

2. Pies - Brilliant effort to stun the second favourite for the flag. Stun isn't the right word for just getting the win, but its the nature of how the Pies went about it where stun applies. The win will see thousands of the black and white army dusting off the woodchips as they climb out of the woodwork because for the first time this year they are on top of the ladder, and clear at that. 6 more MCG games remain. They are in great form and only have 2 real tests to come, the Cats in round 19 and the Hawks in round 22.

3. Swans - Great win against a rival, but most impressive because it was in Melbourne and not their SCG fortress and because it was a pretty conclusive victory and enough to ensure they stay ahead, on % of the Hawks. And they needed this win because the rest of the year is damned tough. Melbourne they should account for but it is a the G but after that its the Cats, Hawks, Freo and Dogs.

4. North - Its a win they needed. Not only to stay intouch but to gain a little on their terrible %. It means they are equal 8th with the Blues and a game up from Adelaide. They still have some winnable games, and if they make the most of those and sneak a win against a top 4 side, they may just leap frog the Blues.

5. Hawks - Super impressive display and a super important win gaining all important % as well as doing all they can to stay in touch with the 4 (which is a pipe dream really). Huge game next week against the Saints, but regardless of that Port at AAMI and Sydney at the SCG wait after that. The tough games just don't stop.

6. West Coast - excellent win inspired by individual brilliance, but a much needed win nevertheless. They remain on the bottom, but have closed the gap between themselves and 15th. What was impressive was that it was in Melbourne. More like this and they might catch someone. Port or Essendon anyone?

7. Dogs - They won. But lets erase memory of the game. They did the job that was expected and not much more. Huge game against, and whilst its in Melbourne they will be very tired coming off the humidity in Darwin. Must keep winning though becuase the Hawks are looming.

8. Freo - Very important win, but they got the scare of their life. They would be angry at throwing away a big lead, but relieved to get the win and maintain their top 4 spot. It doesn't get any easier than this with games against 5 of the top 8 contenders. Frankly they have looked very shakey since Barlow went down, and my gut feel is they'll miss top 4.

9. Dees - What a marvelous performance from a young Dees side who doesn't know how to travel. They had their chances to win a big game but perhaps the nerves got to them, However the result didn't really matter for them, the endeavour that they showed will lift the spirits of Melbourne supporters. This is going to be a good team in years to come.

10. Tigers - It was bound to happen. They've played well for so long and really well above expectation. They encountered a North side desperate to stay in the finals race. Its really a loss of little consequence however. Whilst it would have been nice to get a game on the Eagles Richmond is focused on development, and they learn plenty from this game.

11. Port - Really tried hard early and looked good. Frankly it looked like an exciting game early, but then they lost their way. This is a team without much depth and no confidence. They have no forward line structure and a pedestrian midfield (although they would love more of what Pearce showed, more often). Their defence looks OK but too much ball gets there courtesy of the dodgy midfield. It will be a long recovery.

12. Saints - Shocking result. Firstly the manner of their defeat, but secondly because they missed a golden opportunity to shore up top two due to Geelongs loss. However, in the scheme of things, it means little. They will still finish top 4 and will not have to travel in the finals. Huge match looming against the Hawks on Friday night. In the Hawks form and with Buddy due back the Saints may actually have another massive test on their hands.

13. Cats - Would be disappointed with the result, especially as they were only Steve Johnson away from their best team (maybe Hawkins too). More so because they dropped the game and were quite simply outplayed, than any impact to their finals hopes. Will teams learn from this? Was it just a hiccup after a tough game against the Hawks? They've got a nice soft game back at home next week, and I suspect that will be just the tonic to reverse this result.

14. Essendon - to lose to West Coast is dreadful in the current climate, but to do so at Etihad is unforgivable. If the knives were out before this, they'll be sharpened and ready to use now. They are in complete disarray and this season looks completely shot. As some suspected their list is poor and reliant on too few. Like a couple of other teams, a long rebuild awaits.

15. Brisbane - Woeful display but the result, a loss, was expected. Vossy coached poorly and his players matched him with their effort. Back to the drawing board for this team, but sadly there is no where to go with compromised drafts hitting everyone over the next two years. It'll be a sad end for legends like Black and Brown but its difficult seeing Brisbane challenge for much in the coming 3-4 years.

16. Carlton - Unforgivable really. A game they had to at the very least show something in, however the loss was a bad one and they didn't show anything. The Blues are in shocking form at the moment and with a resurgent Adelaide and a North side that refuses to roll over they are currently in a battle for 8th. Thankfully they have a handy percentage on their rivals and a game on Adelaide. But with West Coasts win, next week at Subi (the first time they have travelled since round 8) is no longer a gimmie and they still face 3 top 4 sides, as well as familiar foes in Essendon (right now looking like the easiest win they'll get) and Richmond.

Crows impressive and a tip rethink...

How good was that? Watching Geelong dismantled by the anti-Crowbots was fantastic. It's not like I dislike Geelong, because I don't, but to actually see the best team in the comp challenged was enormous. Plenty to like about the Crows for the future and they might just sneak into the 8 if things go the right way for them, because this was one that was penciled as a loss.

This result and the loss of Buddy made me think a little about the Hawks game. Its much less certain now. Too many questions. Will Brown be OK? Will Fev be OK? Can the Hawks actually contain them? Who is going to get the ball to them with Black out? Who will come in for Buddy? Lisle the first gamer? Will Mitchell play or will Sewell come in for him? Is Clarko doing a dodgy with emergencies? Was the tough match against the Hawks last week a reason why the Cats lost, and if so what does that mean for the Hawks chances? Both Cats and Hawks lost the week after they last played.

AFL Preview Round 16

Crows v Cats - The Crows have some decent form with 3 in a row. AAMI is also looking a bit more familiar as they've won their last 4 there. They have a rejigged and firing forwardline and some self belief, and that goes a long way. The Cats are always in form, and they are coming off a good win against a team that always gives them trouble. They are regaining a gun in Corey and a structurally important player in Mooney. I can see the Crows winning this, but not with enough conviction to tip them. Cats by 25. Upset chance 35%.

Hawks v Lions - Yes the Lions have Brown back, and that (and he) is huge! But how fit is he after many many weeks out? And probably more importantly, they've lost Black, their only really good midfielder. The Hawks bring back their skipper but they must think they are in good form as they've dropped Brad Sewell which is just bizarre. Sure he hasn't been in the best form but he is still a heck of a lot better than Whitecross. I think the Black loss is massive and it is down in Tassie and the Lions are in crap form and the Hawks aren't. Safety says Hawks in canter, by 45. Upset chance 30%

Magpies v Saints - Huge game! 2nd v 3rd and it should be a massive crowd too. St Nick has a game under his belt, and the Saints are just rolling along. The Pies got a scare early but gathered themselves nicely. The big thing for me is the record (Saints love the Pies, they've won the last 4) and the ins. Goddard is a gun, and absolute star. Cloke isn't, but he is structurally important. I think with those selections this game tips in the Saints favour. Saints by 27, upset chance 40%

Bombers v Eagles - If Pies v Saints is massive, this is the opposite. The two worst (OK worst and third worst, sorry Port) teams going head to head. I'm not going to waste much space on this. Dons will win, not because they are any good, but because its over in Melbourne and the Eagles are crapful on the road. Dons, 15, upset chance 40%

Dogs v Power - in Darwin no less. Port has a new coach to win for but I have my doubts about their ability to win it for Primus, afterall they couldn't win it for Choco for what is it now? 8 weeks? Dogs are without Hall, which could be interesting, but lets face it, they are all class compared to the Power rabble. Game over. Dogs by 40, upset chance 20%

Blues v Swans - Super important game for both teams! The Blues are all over the shop and the Swans have had a few tough weeks before grinding out a win last week. The big difference this week is that it isn't on their dung heap, its at Etihad. Scoring in this game will be interesting. O'Helpess has been dropped, and Bradshaw isn't playing still, so there are no real key forwards (although Waite is back, again, and he can kick a small bag, as can the returning White). So this one will be a battle of mids methinks. Goodes has been dreadful this year, but was brilliant in the middle last week. The two mids match up well, but the Blues have pace and probably better goal scoring options. A syd win wouldn't surprise, but I'll go with the Blues by 2, upset chance 49%

Tigers v Roos - The Tigers have all the form, but the Roos weren't disgraced last week. We'll get the answers to two questions with the result of this game. 1. Are the Tigers going to continue their unlikely run? 2. Are the Roos still a top 8 chance? I'm backing the Tigers on form and some handy ins, but this game could easily go to the Roos. Tigers by 12, upset chance 49%

Freo v Dees - Freo are fading fast. They've lost the last two and only a game ahead of the Dogs for top 4. There is no doubt they missed Barlow, but were probably unlucky to lose last week. Contrastingly the Dees got a great win, but its their first for a long time. Harsh reality is they don't travel well and they aren't very good (yet). Freo by 53, upset chance 20%

AFL Review Round 15

Pies d Port by 26 . Port capitalised on a strong breeze and a lotta Choco love early, but the Pies reeled in a 46 point deficit to win comfortably. Pies were simply too good, and it was a great effort to be able to turn the game around from where they were.

Cats d Hawks by 2. Excellent and willing battle that saw the Cats finish with just a bit more class. The Hawks had their chances to pressure the cats in the third by 2.7 was wasteful and they rued it when ultimately beaten by a brilliant 4th quarter by the Cats.

Crows d Eagles by 22. Well at least the Eagles showed some fight. It was a close encounter but Adelaide had control in the second half and did enough to scrounge the win.

Saints d Lions by 14 . A bit of a blah game (I'm sick of Reiwoldt talk too). The Lions did well early by in the end the class of the Saints came through and the expected result occurred.

Tigers d Freo by 19. This was always going to be tight. The Dockers had the game in control before another comeback from the Tigers. It probably was a game that Freo let slip based on how it was played out, but credit to the Tigers for gaining the lead and managing to told it in a tense last quarter.

Swans d North by 30. A strong first half by the Swans saw them 4 goals clear, and good defense for the whole game saw North only kick 7 for the match. All up a good solid win for the Swans. North slowly slipping and desperate to win against a resurgent Tigers outfit next week.

Dees d Bombers by 19. The Dees and their friends the umpires dominated this game except for about 15 minutes in the third when it looked like it was getting exciting, it didn't. Dees with more class and composure, Bombers directionless up forward.

Dogs d Blues by 68. I said it could be a corker. If you were a Dogs supporter it probably was. If you are a fan of footy it was a standard ritual slaughter.

1. Tigers - Another awesome display from the cubs! This team that looked so dreadful for so long is starting to click and frankly sides should be worried. Freo was no easy beat, and yet they were accounted for (and in doing so opened up the top 4 just a little). The Tigers have plenty to like and it looks like some players to work with.

2. Cats - They've found another challenger in the Hawks. If they lost this game all the sudden they would have been third, so there was a bit at stake. However they were good enough and have Johnson and Mooney to return in coming weeks. One thing we all learned was that this year isn't just one way Cat traffic.

3. Dogs - Magnificent win over a team that is threatening to be a rival. They needed the win to shore up their position, and because of Freo's fall they are now withing a game striking distance of the 4. Not only that, but a game ahead of the chasing pack. Port Adelaide looms as an important match, because the week after they are playing Freo for 4th.

4. Crows - They've come from nowhere to be 2 games out of the 8. But with only 7 games to go it looks to be a bridge to far. However things are finally clicking and they can use the rest of this season as a springboard into next.

5. Swans - Did what they should have and now are a game in the 8 and looking ok. Would have been a dreadful loss. Goodes found some important form, but I get the feeling come September they are making up the numbers. Will be desperate to finish 5th or 6th to get that home final, and give them a chance of progressing to the second round.

6. Dees - Good win against opposition that is currently of similar talent. Difference is that the Dees have talented youth that will improve. Bright times ahead in coming seasons.

7. Saints - Did the job, nothing more nothing less and saved themselves for what could be a couple of very tough matches coming up in the Pies and Hawks. Very interesting to see how both those games pan out.

8. Pies - Stunned for the first quarter and a half, but then realised that they are actually a top 4 not bottom 4 side and played an excellent game for the remainder of the match. They did what they were expected to results-wise, and now the sit comfortably in the 4 and with 7 games to go at the G, its pretty much sewn up.

9. Hawks - Disappointed that they didn't take their opportunities but reassured that they can mix it with the best. I'm pretty close to calling the Hawks 'back' but they need to beat Brisbane and at least take it up to the Saints.

10. Weagles - Finally they showed a bit of fight and spirit and that bodes well, but the questions have to be asked where were they in recent weeks? On top of that they lost to a beatable side who they own on their own dung heap. Resigned for the spoon methinks.

11. Lions - Well at least they, like the Eagles, showed some spirit. They lead early and threw the challenge out which is a good sign. However they have lots of deficiencies to work through including up forward and through the middle. Dark times ahead, but if Browny comes back fit they may rediscover some of that early season form.

12. Port - Brilliant early, but that was it. Just don't have the class and confidence to beat a quality side like the Pies. Where are they now? Looking to redeem themselves at the beginning of a new era. I am pretty sure I said they needed to get rid of Williams (and if I didn't I thought it) to move forward and now they have bitten the bullet they'll look carefully at the right coach to develop some talented players on their list whilst cutting some old dead wood.

13. North - Will be disappointed but the sad reality is they need some improvement (which will come) and all their best players. 9th/10th is probably the reality for this season. The big question is next season, can they improve?

14. Bombers - Very disappointing display, but one indicative of their class. Sorely missing Fletcher, Pears and most importantly Hille. They are a different side when they have their best 22 available, but their depth is pretty weak. They have some signs that they can build a side, but reality is that they are years away.

15. Blues - Insipid. Simply outclassed. At the moment their recent form indicates they are nothing more than a pretender. However Sydney in Melbourne and West Coast are both winnable games so they should be able to consolidate their position in the 8.

16. Freo - Horrid loss. They are top 4 and have been excellent thus far, but this was a game they shouldn't have lost. Did the Barlow factor count? Time will tell, but all the sudden they look vulnerable. 4 out of the next 7 at Subi is good, but they play 5 of the top 9 teams in that period too. Interesting to see if they can hold it together or implode.

AFL Preview Round 15

Port v Pies - In a nutshell there is almost no way the Power can win. They simply aren't good enough and are in dreadful form. The Pies however are in decent form and rolling through any challenge they meet. They are playing too well as a team. Pies by 58, upset chance 10%

Cats v Hawks - Could be a corker, but I suspect the Cats will take the honours because their midfield is more solid and their forward line as too much versatility (and that is with Mooney and Johnson out). Hodge is in outstanding form, but with Mitchell out look to Ling to keep him quiet. Big test for Hodge to have an impact with Ling on him. However if the Hawks can at least curb the midfield influence of the Cats they probably match up better against a team of 1 tall than multiple talls. The Cats defence may also be stretched against a Hawks line up that is learning to spread their goal kickers. Cats by 12, upset chance 35%.

Eagles v Crows - Battle of the light weights, game 1. Adelaide is in far better form wining 4 of their last 7. The Eagles can't win tick at the moment, and don't look likely to break that in this game. However they do have homeground, and Adelaide has yet to get a win away from AAMI. Still, Crows by 40, upset chance 25%

Lions v Saints - Yes its at the Gabba. That's pro for the Lions. But that's it. Nothing else. The Saints should romp it home. They are an organised disciplined outfit with an excellent midfield and backline. I still have question marks on their forward line that is definitely small reliant (and this is a trend this year for a lot of teams), but the Lions have just got nothing to answer with. Saints by 70, upset chance 5%

Tigers v Freo - The Tigers have form (one of those things that I still can't get used to saying) and its at home. Freo however, are a top 4 side. They simply should be too good. The question will be how much of a difference does the absence of Barlow make. We'll find out, because based on form the Tigers have belief and are hard at it. They may well test the dockers. Still backing the WA boys though. Freo by 30, upset chance 40%

Swans v North - Arguably the most important game of the round. Super important game for both teams. The winner claims 8th spot and a game ahead of the loser. The loser has got a heap of work to do. The Swans have been a bit jittery since running through a horror streak of draw and injury, and the Roos have been brave and doing enough to stick around. Some key players missing for both sides, but the advantage surely has to go to the Swans as they are on the SCG, a ground they love. Swans by 5, upset chance 49%

Dees v Bombers - Battle of the light weights, game 2. The Dees have probably been more impressive than expected this year, but it doesn't hide the fact that they are 1-1-7 in the last 9, with the win coming 5 weeks ago. The Dons also last won 5 rounds ago, but before then had some decent form. They've fallen away badly due to Hille being out, and that is still the case. So who is going to win? No idea. I'm tipping the Dees because the lost to Adelaide (44 points) by a lot less than Essendon (85 points) did, and both games were in consecutive weeks. Dees by 15, upset chance 49%

Blues v Dogs - Like the Cats v Hawks, it could be a corker. Could be. The Blues and Dogs have both been shaky in recent times. Just when the Dogs look to be back on track they drop a game, and the Blues were setting sights to top 4 and they dropped a couple. I rate the Dogs as a better overall side, and they were very good last week in defeat, albeit as a Doggies supporter friend of mine said, still worse with their skills than you would expect. The Blues, well its hard to know what to make. They flogged the Lions, but frankly who cares. And they weren't particularly good about doing it either. I'm backing the Dogs due to class. Dogs by 18, upset chance 40%

AFL Review Round 14

Blues d Lions by 55. Horrid game. Lions woeful, Blues better but skills not great.

Hawks d Dogs by 3. Huge result, great win. But nothing really separating these teams.

Freo d Port by 57. Easy win to Freo. Port rubbish as usual.

Pies d Weagles by 83. Slaughter.

Crows d Bombers by 84. Massive result from a resurgent Crows. Bombers in real trouble of not being able to arrest their slide.

Cats d Roos by 35. Meh.

Tigers d Swans by 4. Huge effort by the Tiges. Swans need a good hard look.

Saints d Dees by 35. No real surprise with this one.

And the winners:

Hawks - Still surging, more challenges ahead in coming weeks. Can't wait to see how they shape up against Geelong.

Tigers - They are doing everything right and are one of the form sides in the comp.

Crows - Starting to find their feet. Need a win away though.

Blues - Desperate for the win to keep their heads above water. Unconvincing.

Throw a blanket over Freo, Cats, Saints and Pies.

Dogs - Someone had to lose an epic contest, unfortunately for them they did.

Roos- a valiant effort, but just not in the same class. Need wins to stay in touch.

Dees - like the Roos good effort, but really a bit meaningless.

Port - Just shows where they are at.

Bombers - Need a spark to salvage a season that is seriously out of control.

Weagles - They were rubbish, but the importance of the game for them is not as great as those below them on this list.

Lions - They have a really average list. Take out the top liners and they are shite.

Swans - Huge loss. Dreadful result against a very winnable team. Now equal 8th and playing their rivals this week. Big match.

AFL Preview Round 14

Carlton v Brisbane - Hmm, Carlton has some decent changes in particular Murphy and O'hailpin who both help structure and Waite out which normally would be a problem. But Brisbane is now officially an unknown. No Brown or Fev means an unknown forward line which can be both a good (unpredictable) and bad (who kicks goals?) thing. Black, McGrath and Polkinghorne are good ins, but really, their form, their unknowns with goal scoring and it being down here points to a Blues win, by 35. Upset chance 30%

Hawthorn v Bulldogs - The Hawks are in great form, but this is a massive test. They are yet to beat a genuine top 4 contender, and thats exactly what the Doggies are. The Doggies have been patchy but have strung a couple together. They'll also take confidence from their recent record against the Hawks, knowing that the Hawks game style actually plays into the Dogs hands. The Dogs run and carry with the best of them, and I think that will see them get over the Hawks. Dogs by 22, upset chance 45%

Fremantle v Port Adelaide - Quite simply the Dockers are a better side and they are at home. The Power have pretty much been woeful and I would be surprised if that changed in this game. Dockers by 50. Upset chance 15%

Collingwood v West Coast - Maybe I'm lazy, but see the Freo Port game. Pies by 50. Upset chance 10%

Adelaide v Essendon - This is an intriguing game. The Crows have a bit of form winning 3 of their last 5 and all of those wins coming at home. They're at home again, and Hille still isn't back coupled with Essendon's dreadful interstate record means another win to the Crows, by 35, upset chance 35%

Geelong v Roos - Hmm, Cats have great players coming back in, are angry because they lost and are at home. Roos, have, well, er, nothing that can counter that. Cats by 60. Upset chance 1%

Tigers v Swans - The Tigers are one of the form sides in the comp. My god that feels odd to type. But its true. However they haven't beaten anyone , really. The Swans are a good solid side and they just tend to beat average to poor sides, oh and they own Richmond. Swans by 12, but if ever the Tiges were going to win one against the Swans, this will be it. Upset chance 45%.

Saints v Dees - Ouch. Shellacking coming up. Saints by 60. Upset chance 10%