Thursday, July 15, 2010

AFL Preview Round 16

Crows v Cats - The Crows have some decent form with 3 in a row. AAMI is also looking a bit more familiar as they've won their last 4 there. They have a rejigged and firing forwardline and some self belief, and that goes a long way. The Cats are always in form, and they are coming off a good win against a team that always gives them trouble. They are regaining a gun in Corey and a structurally important player in Mooney. I can see the Crows winning this, but not with enough conviction to tip them. Cats by 25. Upset chance 35%.

Hawks v Lions - Yes the Lions have Brown back, and that (and he) is huge! But how fit is he after many many weeks out? And probably more importantly, they've lost Black, their only really good midfielder. The Hawks bring back their skipper but they must think they are in good form as they've dropped Brad Sewell which is just bizarre. Sure he hasn't been in the best form but he is still a heck of a lot better than Whitecross. I think the Black loss is massive and it is down in Tassie and the Lions are in crap form and the Hawks aren't. Safety says Hawks in canter, by 45. Upset chance 30%

Magpies v Saints - Huge game! 2nd v 3rd and it should be a massive crowd too. St Nick has a game under his belt, and the Saints are just rolling along. The Pies got a scare early but gathered themselves nicely. The big thing for me is the record (Saints love the Pies, they've won the last 4) and the ins. Goddard is a gun, and absolute star. Cloke isn't, but he is structurally important. I think with those selections this game tips in the Saints favour. Saints by 27, upset chance 40%

Bombers v Eagles - If Pies v Saints is massive, this is the opposite. The two worst (OK worst and third worst, sorry Port) teams going head to head. I'm not going to waste much space on this. Dons will win, not because they are any good, but because its over in Melbourne and the Eagles are crapful on the road. Dons, 15, upset chance 40%

Dogs v Power - in Darwin no less. Port has a new coach to win for but I have my doubts about their ability to win it for Primus, afterall they couldn't win it for Choco for what is it now? 8 weeks? Dogs are without Hall, which could be interesting, but lets face it, they are all class compared to the Power rabble. Game over. Dogs by 40, upset chance 20%

Blues v Swans - Super important game for both teams! The Blues are all over the shop and the Swans have had a few tough weeks before grinding out a win last week. The big difference this week is that it isn't on their dung heap, its at Etihad. Scoring in this game will be interesting. O'Helpess has been dropped, and Bradshaw isn't playing still, so there are no real key forwards (although Waite is back, again, and he can kick a small bag, as can the returning White). So this one will be a battle of mids methinks. Goodes has been dreadful this year, but was brilliant in the middle last week. The two mids match up well, but the Blues have pace and probably better goal scoring options. A syd win wouldn't surprise, but I'll go with the Blues by 2, upset chance 49%

Tigers v Roos - The Tigers have all the form, but the Roos weren't disgraced last week. We'll get the answers to two questions with the result of this game. 1. Are the Tigers going to continue their unlikely run? 2. Are the Roos still a top 8 chance? I'm backing the Tigers on form and some handy ins, but this game could easily go to the Roos. Tigers by 12, upset chance 49%

Freo v Dees - Freo are fading fast. They've lost the last two and only a game ahead of the Dogs for top 4. There is no doubt they missed Barlow, but were probably unlucky to lose last week. Contrastingly the Dees got a great win, but its their first for a long time. Harsh reality is they don't travel well and they aren't very good (yet). Freo by 53, upset chance 20%

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