Thursday, July 1, 2010

AFL Preview Round 14

Carlton v Brisbane - Hmm, Carlton has some decent changes in particular Murphy and O'hailpin who both help structure and Waite out which normally would be a problem. But Brisbane is now officially an unknown. No Brown or Fev means an unknown forward line which can be both a good (unpredictable) and bad (who kicks goals?) thing. Black, McGrath and Polkinghorne are good ins, but really, their form, their unknowns with goal scoring and it being down here points to a Blues win, by 35. Upset chance 30%

Hawthorn v Bulldogs - The Hawks are in great form, but this is a massive test. They are yet to beat a genuine top 4 contender, and thats exactly what the Doggies are. The Doggies have been patchy but have strung a couple together. They'll also take confidence from their recent record against the Hawks, knowing that the Hawks game style actually plays into the Dogs hands. The Dogs run and carry with the best of them, and I think that will see them get over the Hawks. Dogs by 22, upset chance 45%

Fremantle v Port Adelaide - Quite simply the Dockers are a better side and they are at home. The Power have pretty much been woeful and I would be surprised if that changed in this game. Dockers by 50. Upset chance 15%

Collingwood v West Coast - Maybe I'm lazy, but see the Freo Port game. Pies by 50. Upset chance 10%

Adelaide v Essendon - This is an intriguing game. The Crows have a bit of form winning 3 of their last 5 and all of those wins coming at home. They're at home again, and Hille still isn't back coupled with Essendon's dreadful interstate record means another win to the Crows, by 35, upset chance 35%

Geelong v Roos - Hmm, Cats have great players coming back in, are angry because they lost and are at home. Roos, have, well, er, nothing that can counter that. Cats by 60. Upset chance 1%

Tigers v Swans - The Tigers are one of the form sides in the comp. My god that feels odd to type. But its true. However they haven't beaten anyone , really. The Swans are a good solid side and they just tend to beat average to poor sides, oh and they own Richmond. Swans by 12, but if ever the Tiges were going to win one against the Swans, this will be it. Upset chance 45%.

Saints v Dees - Ouch. Shellacking coming up. Saints by 60. Upset chance 10%

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