Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Battle for the top 8

So we come to the last battle, and possibly the most intriguing.

The Hawks, Dogs and Freo have shown enough to make me think even if things go bad they've done enough. So it comes down to the Swans, Blues, North and Crows. sorry if you support anyone else, but you're done.

Swans - The Swans have been doing enough, but not yet beaten a 'good' side, just some peers and anything below them, except Richmond a couple of weeks back. Melbourne (away) is a tough challenge right now, the Cats will beat them, the Hawks are tough even at home, then Freo away, the Dogs and finally Brisbane (away). Frankly thats a tough draw for a team that has probably been a touch above mediocre all year. I reckon 2-4 is about right. They may sneak 3 or may only get 1. Their end of season looks to be about 11-11. Will good % let them hold on?

Blues - They are in shocking form and they need to arrest it quick or they are in massive trouble in regards to the finals. Can Juddy find some friends to help him? The Eagles (away) is a chance, but it should be a gimmie, Pies, Essendon, Richmond, Cats, Freo (away). Thats nasty for a team down on confidence. I could see them losing the lot frankly, but its probably more likely that they'll win a couple. 11-11 for them but a worse % than Sydney.

North - They refuse to die, but can they do enough to get more than 11 wins, because their % is dreadful. Essendon, Dogs, Freo, Saints, West Coast (away), Melbourne. I think they have winnable games there. Essendon and West Coast are almost certs, Dogs and Freo I think they are a decent chance against both, Saints they'll lose and Melbourne they should account for. I think they'll get 4 from that. So 12-4, wow...they're in!

Crows - Can they do it? They are a game out as it stands but in great form and confidence. They've got Port, Richmond (away), Dogs, Lions (away), Pies (away) and Saints. They should get 3 wins at least which takes them to 10, can they get a win from Dogs, Pies or Saints? If they can they might get in on %. I think they can. 4-2 gives them 11-11. Tied with the Swans, but I suspect they might not be able to get the % needed.

So afterall that, my ladder after round 22 reads:

1. Cats
2. Saints
3. Pies
4. Dogs
5. Hawks
6. Freo
7. North
8. Sydney
9. Adelaide
10. Blues

Whilst I'm predicting, here's the finals:
QF - Cats v Dogs - Cats win
QF - Saints v Pies - Saints win
EF - Hawks v Sydney - Hawks win
EF - Freo v North - Freo win

SF - Dogs v Hawks - Hawks win
SF - Pies v Freo - Pies win

PF - Cats v Pies - Cats win
PF - Saints v Hawks - Hawks win

GF - Cats v Hawks - Cats win

I certainly didn't expect to see that when I started this exercise!

There you go, afterall that you don't need to pay any attention to what happens over the next 10 weeks. Congrats to the Cats :-)

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