Doggies v Saints - This is going to be an epic contest. Dogs are desperate for a win against quality, and Saints are desperate to show they can win without Rooey (yeah they have done it 1.5 times before, but this is another test to discredit the doubters). It will be an interesting game of contrasting styles. The Dogs run and carry versus the dour defensive structures of the Saints. Its at Etihad where both teams enjoy success so that doesn't help a mug punter. So how do you split them? Dogs got confidence and form against the Crows, the Saints in contrast were beaten away by Port. Kosi didn't fire a shot and they struggled to score. I think the Doggies won't disappoint and will run over the Saints. 24.
Kangaroos v Demons - This could be a cracker! Both sides coming off inspiring wins and both sides have a signficant future to look forward to. The roos played to their strengths and their oppoennts weakness last week and got away with a hard fought win, the Dees just ran it through the middle and savaged a previously undefeated side. Its a hard one to pick. Can Melbourne keep going with their winning ways? Its a tough ask for a young team. Will North be able to find some consistency? Form points to the Dees, and thats the seperator. 3 on the trot and a 1 point defeat against the form team of the comp. Dees by 12
Crows v Port - Crows are dreadful. Losing Knights and Dangerfield, both excellent players, will hurt but an underdone Bock may prove useful however. Port however have looked the more competant team and seems to be up to this challenge. It is a Showdown however so anything goes. Port by 15.
Bombers v Hawks - I love this fixture every year. Its always entertaining and often has some biffo. Players don't seem to care about suspensions and fines in Essendon v Hawthorn games. There is no doubt the Hawks are the better side on paper but Essendon has had a bake for their lacklustre (I'm being kind) performance against the Pies. On top of that there is the Round 22 match from last year that will be on both teams' minds. Essendon will win if they can run with skill. Hawks at the moment are slow, and slow to set up their zone. Hawks will win if they get on top of their mental game (which is why they lost after Lloyd's massive and brilliant game changing hit on Sewell). Who will be more desperate, because the season is over for the loser. I'm going for the Hawks. Pears out and Renouf in means a double blow for the Bombers. Renouf in means Roughead will now go forward with Buddy causing a bit of match up pain (I'm not sure Fletcher is suited for stopping jobs on big forwards anymore, he prefers third man up). Hawks by 24.
Swans v Lions - I love the Swans, I think I've made that well known. But this is their first test of the season since round one. They may have form and 4 wins, but they have been against essentially the 4 bottom sides. Talk about a kind draw. The question marks on the Lions all center around Brown actually being fit and with Bolton going down it leaves a match up concern for the Swans. Not to be outdone, with Merret out the Lions will have to juggle to get the right match up for Bradshaw. This is a really tough tip, but I'm going for the Lions as they'll be hungry after the disappointment of last week. But this could be an epic. Lions by 4
Cats v Tigers - This is my shoe in of the week. Everyone expects a slaughter, and they'll get one. Angry Cats are no match for timid Tiges. Don't even watch this. It will get ugly. Cats by 80.
Blues v Pies - The Blues were very good against the Cats. They ran and carried well and much has been made of their small forwards. The Pies were also pretty good, albeit versus a poor rival. On form the Pies are ticking all the boxes, whereas the Blues have been a bit up and down. So whats the real concern for the Pies? The midfield of Carlton is arguably one of the best, and Judd has certainly added class, speed and skill. But the Pies aren't as one dimensional in this area as they once were. The Pies forwards look to have it over the Blues defenders, and the Pie defenders are better suited to tackle the Blues small forwards. It could be a great contest, really depends which Carlton side steps out, but in the end Pies should win comfortably. 25 points.
Eagles v Dockers - The Dockers are flying at the moment, the Eagles floundering. I expect Sandilands to dominate, but Pav might find a harder time of it, however I think the unsung Freo defense will blanket the Weagles forwards and Freo's slick and confident midfield will take down the Eagles counterparts. Freo also has a good recent history in these games, if my memory serves right. Freo by 30 in a bruiser.
Friday, April 30, 2010
Monday, April 26, 2010
Round 5 Review
Well an improvement (barely!), 4, and frankly not unhappy with missing Melbourne, Port or the Blues. Anyone that picked them arsed it.
Western Bulldogs d Adelaide by 49 - Pretty much nailed this one. I said 50 points, it was 49. I said don't bother watching TV, and I was so bored I went to bed half way through the 3rd. Dogs were slick and too good, Crows were crap, again.
Sydney d West Coast by 48 - Sydney were just too good all over the ground against a young and inexperienced side. Result as expected.
Melbourne d Brisbane by 50 - This one, I didn't see coming. What a magnificent effort from a relentless Melbourne. Midfield run through the corridor set this up, and a blanket job by Frawley on Brown was fantastic. Brisbane just didn't get fluency and really weren't in the game at all.
Port Adelaide d St. Kilda by 10 - A fantastic performance by Port to overcome a great team. I didn't see the game, but from what I hear it sounded like a slugfest of horrid proportions. Whilst St. Kilda led at every change, Port managed to overhaul them by somehow keeping them goalless in the last (even though they had more inside 50s) whilst kicking 3.1 themselves.
Collingwood d Essendon by 65 - This was slaughter. No doubt about it. The Bombers are just not good enough. That's not a surprise as there really isn't much depth of talent there and Knights hasn't demonstrated a plan B yet. The Pies were magnificent showing run and carry and Cloke finally standing up to kick a smallish bag of 4.
North Melbourne d Hawthorn by 12 - A great contest, but ultimately the result was virtually assured before teh bounce when Renouf the only Hawk ruck was a very late withdrawal. Roughead and Hodge in the Ruck threw the Hawks structures, and whilst they fought valiantly, the Roos were magnificent in playing to the Hawks weakness. Their hard tackling caused stoppage after stoppage and their height told out in the end.
Fremantle d Richmond by 39 - A 5 goal unanswered burst at the start of the game and many may have been thinking, "Ah the Freo of old", and "Why haven't the Tiges been able to do this against tamer opposition". However the Tigers only managed 6 more for the match and Freo simply out gunned them. Predictable result, if not beginning of the game.
Carlton d Geelong by 36 - This is the round of upsets! And whilst this isn't the biggest its still mighty impressive. The Blues ran the Cats off their feet with slick movement and options up forward. The Cats, well they just didn't look right. Slow through the middle and an impotent forward line. Very un-Cat like. I REALLY feel sorry for Richmond next week.
Who was the best performer of the week?
1. Melbourne - To have 3 wins in a row is a magnificent achievement, but to gain the last against an in form Brisbane was simply breathtaking. Melbourne are doing everything they can to, dare I say it, make a real push for the 8.
2. Port Adelaide - Knocking off the Saints is no mean feat. I haven't traditionally rated Port, but this is a fantastic effort. Maybe the Saints were ripe for the picking, but it doesn't matter. This was a great win from a club that simply must produce more wins.
3. Carlton - They backed up a needed and expected win against Adelaide by taking out the premiers. That's damn impressive. So will the real Carlton please stand up? We'll see what they are made of against the Pies next week. That should be a ripping match if the Blues can hold this form.
4. North Melbourne - Ferocious attack on the ball and the man led them to a great win. The Hawks were ripe to be picked off but lets not make excuses because the Roos won a game they weren't originally give too much hope to win, and most importantly when the Hawks took the lead North was good enough to snatch it back and run away with it.
5. Collingwood - Another week, another great performance. Sure they beat no one, but they did it in style. How far the Pies? Very.
6. Western Bulldogs - Back to the winners list, but can they stay there? They did what they should have done, no more no less. I'm still watching them with great interest.
7. Fremantle - A good, if unspectacular win. They need to do more and there is still a heavy reliance on Sandilands and Pav.
8. Sydney - It wasn't much of a contest, but they are doing all they can against the opponents the draw is throwing at them. Another I watch with interest, especially in coming weeks when things start getting tougher.
9. West Coast - They're just not good enough and whilst they'll bob up and win a few, they are a non-threat.
10. Geelong - The Cats are in an uncustomary position, hanging with the middle of the pack. It won't sit well with them, and until they lose a couple more I'm thinking this is an aberration
11. Richmond - Showed a bit early which would be pleasing to fans, but also frustrating because it only comes in small patches. Lots of work to do.
12. St. Kilda - Was it Kosi failing to fire a shot? Was it structure failing without Rooey? Was it pressure? Or was it the fact that they have only got inside 50 twice more than their opponents in 5 games, and that includes a slaughter of North. Its a key stat, keep watching.
13. Essendon - Woeful. Big stage, big failure. They need a forward line, a midfield with some skill and a backline. Oh and a coach. Not sold on Knights at all. Big test against the hapless Hawks next week.
14. Brisbane - They will be mortally disappointed. How they could lose against a young, inexperienced if hungry Demons is really beyond me. They have their doubters, but we don't know until we see a trend. Perhaps this is just an aberration (just like the Cats loss).
15. Hawthorn - They will be very disappointed. This was one that got away and it has seriously hurt their chances this year. Renouf hurt, but their list seems to lack depth. Franklin was great but Roughead unsighted due to ruck duties. Too many basic mistakes and only a few that were desperate. Back to the drawing board but they better start scribbling quickly because right now they look a long long way from finals. Next week against he Bombers is crucial. Lose that and they are gone.
16. Adelaide - They are dreadful. They have got nothing going for them in the slightest. Time for Craig to start again and remould his gameplan and reeducate his players, or get ones that can play the way he wants them to.
Western Bulldogs d Adelaide by 49 - Pretty much nailed this one. I said 50 points, it was 49. I said don't bother watching TV, and I was so bored I went to bed half way through the 3rd. Dogs were slick and too good, Crows were crap, again.
Sydney d West Coast by 48 - Sydney were just too good all over the ground against a young and inexperienced side. Result as expected.
Melbourne d Brisbane by 50 - This one, I didn't see coming. What a magnificent effort from a relentless Melbourne. Midfield run through the corridor set this up, and a blanket job by Frawley on Brown was fantastic. Brisbane just didn't get fluency and really weren't in the game at all.
Port Adelaide d St. Kilda by 10 - A fantastic performance by Port to overcome a great team. I didn't see the game, but from what I hear it sounded like a slugfest of horrid proportions. Whilst St. Kilda led at every change, Port managed to overhaul them by somehow keeping them goalless in the last (even though they had more inside 50s) whilst kicking 3.1 themselves.
Collingwood d Essendon by 65 - This was slaughter. No doubt about it. The Bombers are just not good enough. That's not a surprise as there really isn't much depth of talent there and Knights hasn't demonstrated a plan B yet. The Pies were magnificent showing run and carry and Cloke finally standing up to kick a smallish bag of 4.
North Melbourne d Hawthorn by 12 - A great contest, but ultimately the result was virtually assured before teh bounce when Renouf the only Hawk ruck was a very late withdrawal. Roughead and Hodge in the Ruck threw the Hawks structures, and whilst they fought valiantly, the Roos were magnificent in playing to the Hawks weakness. Their hard tackling caused stoppage after stoppage and their height told out in the end.
Fremantle d Richmond by 39 - A 5 goal unanswered burst at the start of the game and many may have been thinking, "Ah the Freo of old", and "Why haven't the Tiges been able to do this against tamer opposition". However the Tigers only managed 6 more for the match and Freo simply out gunned them. Predictable result, if not beginning of the game.
Carlton d Geelong by 36 - This is the round of upsets! And whilst this isn't the biggest its still mighty impressive. The Blues ran the Cats off their feet with slick movement and options up forward. The Cats, well they just didn't look right. Slow through the middle and an impotent forward line. Very un-Cat like. I REALLY feel sorry for Richmond next week.
Who was the best performer of the week?
1. Melbourne - To have 3 wins in a row is a magnificent achievement, but to gain the last against an in form Brisbane was simply breathtaking. Melbourne are doing everything they can to, dare I say it, make a real push for the 8.
2. Port Adelaide - Knocking off the Saints is no mean feat. I haven't traditionally rated Port, but this is a fantastic effort. Maybe the Saints were ripe for the picking, but it doesn't matter. This was a great win from a club that simply must produce more wins.
3. Carlton - They backed up a needed and expected win against Adelaide by taking out the premiers. That's damn impressive. So will the real Carlton please stand up? We'll see what they are made of against the Pies next week. That should be a ripping match if the Blues can hold this form.
4. North Melbourne - Ferocious attack on the ball and the man led them to a great win. The Hawks were ripe to be picked off but lets not make excuses because the Roos won a game they weren't originally give too much hope to win, and most importantly when the Hawks took the lead North was good enough to snatch it back and run away with it.
5. Collingwood - Another week, another great performance. Sure they beat no one, but they did it in style. How far the Pies? Very.
6. Western Bulldogs - Back to the winners list, but can they stay there? They did what they should have done, no more no less. I'm still watching them with great interest.
7. Fremantle - A good, if unspectacular win. They need to do more and there is still a heavy reliance on Sandilands and Pav.
8. Sydney - It wasn't much of a contest, but they are doing all they can against the opponents the draw is throwing at them. Another I watch with interest, especially in coming weeks when things start getting tougher.
9. West Coast - They're just not good enough and whilst they'll bob up and win a few, they are a non-threat.
10. Geelong - The Cats are in an uncustomary position, hanging with the middle of the pack. It won't sit well with them, and until they lose a couple more I'm thinking this is an aberration
11. Richmond - Showed a bit early which would be pleasing to fans, but also frustrating because it only comes in small patches. Lots of work to do.
12. St. Kilda - Was it Kosi failing to fire a shot? Was it structure failing without Rooey? Was it pressure? Or was it the fact that they have only got inside 50 twice more than their opponents in 5 games, and that includes a slaughter of North. Its a key stat, keep watching.
13. Essendon - Woeful. Big stage, big failure. They need a forward line, a midfield with some skill and a backline. Oh and a coach. Not sold on Knights at all. Big test against the hapless Hawks next week.
14. Brisbane - They will be mortally disappointed. How they could lose against a young, inexperienced if hungry Demons is really beyond me. They have their doubters, but we don't know until we see a trend. Perhaps this is just an aberration (just like the Cats loss).
15. Hawthorn - They will be very disappointed. This was one that got away and it has seriously hurt their chances this year. Renouf hurt, but their list seems to lack depth. Franklin was great but Roughead unsighted due to ruck duties. Too many basic mistakes and only a few that were desperate. Back to the drawing board but they better start scribbling quickly because right now they look a long long way from finals. Next week against he Bombers is crucial. Lose that and they are gone.
16. Adelaide - They are dreadful. They have got nothing going for them in the slightest. Time for Craig to start again and remould his gameplan and reeducate his players, or get ones that can play the way he wants them to.
Friday, April 23, 2010
Round 5 Tips
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide - Doggies have shown enough to suggest they'll win this. Perhaps more to the point the Crows have shown nothing. Its also in Melbourne. Dogs will win easily, 50 points, don't bother watching this on TV.
Sydney v West Coast - In years gone past this would have been a cracker, but not this week. Sydney have form against West Coasts peer teams and should comfortably account for a young developing and traveling team. Sydney by 35
Melbourne v Brisbane - Rumours, denied by the man himself, suggest that Browny is going to miss through some surgery. I doubt it, and frankly not sure if it would matter. The Lions are flying and Melbourne, whilst 2 in a row is great for them, haven't threatened anyone of merit. Lions in a canter, 70 points
Port Adelaide v St. Kilda - Let me see...its in Adelaide, Port are stinging after a belting, St Kilda doesn't have Riewoldt (damn spelling gets me everytime)...er..um..sorry, another belting. St Kilda by 50
Collingwood v Essendon - There is absolutely no reason that a sane tipper could contemplate tipping Essendon. And I won't be. Sure they are SOME chance of winning, but heck any team can win on any given day, but the form, the players, the coaching, all points to a boring ANZAC day game. Pies by 40
Hawthorn v North Melbourne - Both teams coming off loses. Both teams arguably struggling. North does OK against the Hawks, but with Buddy and Sewell returning I think firepower and midfield experience will win the day. North's ruck combo could sway it perhaps, but I am not sure they can stop Buddy and Roughy (who prefers his partner back). Hawks by 24
Fremantle v Richmond - This could be the comedy game of the round. We all know Freo's history and we all know how bad Richmond is. But this is exactly the sort of game the old Freo would drop. They won't though. Freo by 60. Be very funny if they did, I really want to tip it, but just can't.
Carlton v Geelong - The Blues have been doing OK. Up and down and the return of Judd is a huge bonus, but they just aren't a match for the ever reliable and rather boring Cats. I mean who wants to see another stock standard Cats win? Not me, but that is whats going to happen. Catters by 35
Well that surprises me. This round seems pretty clear cut with Hawks v North my closest game. Considering I have got 3 and 4 in the last 2 weeks, read and consider the above with considerable caution.
Sydney v West Coast - In years gone past this would have been a cracker, but not this week. Sydney have form against West Coasts peer teams and should comfortably account for a young developing and traveling team. Sydney by 35
Melbourne v Brisbane - Rumours, denied by the man himself, suggest that Browny is going to miss through some surgery. I doubt it, and frankly not sure if it would matter. The Lions are flying and Melbourne, whilst 2 in a row is great for them, haven't threatened anyone of merit. Lions in a canter, 70 points
Port Adelaide v St. Kilda - Let me see...its in Adelaide, Port are stinging after a belting, St Kilda doesn't have Riewoldt (damn spelling gets me everytime)...er..um..sorry, another belting. St Kilda by 50
Collingwood v Essendon - There is absolutely no reason that a sane tipper could contemplate tipping Essendon. And I won't be. Sure they are SOME chance of winning, but heck any team can win on any given day, but the form, the players, the coaching, all points to a boring ANZAC day game. Pies by 40
Hawthorn v North Melbourne - Both teams coming off loses. Both teams arguably struggling. North does OK against the Hawks, but with Buddy and Sewell returning I think firepower and midfield experience will win the day. North's ruck combo could sway it perhaps, but I am not sure they can stop Buddy and Roughy (who prefers his partner back). Hawks by 24
Fremantle v Richmond - This could be the comedy game of the round. We all know Freo's history and we all know how bad Richmond is. But this is exactly the sort of game the old Freo would drop. They won't though. Freo by 60. Be very funny if they did, I really want to tip it, but just can't.
Carlton v Geelong - The Blues have been doing OK. Up and down and the return of Judd is a huge bonus, but they just aren't a match for the ever reliable and rather boring Cats. I mean who wants to see another stock standard Cats win? Not me, but that is whats going to happen. Catters by 35
Well that surprises me. This round seems pretty clear cut with Hawks v North my closest game. Considering I have got 3 and 4 in the last 2 weeks, read and consider the above with considerable caution.
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
So where are we at, 4 rounds in?
Time to just have a look at where everyone is at and what the immediate future holds
Adelaide - 0-4. In summary, their stuffed. There was no shame losing to Freo and Sydney, but Melbourne was gut wrenching and the Blues at home was one that shouldn't have got away. They are seriously bad. What went wrong? A bad preseason and more injuries. Lets throw in an unimaginative game style, old heads that finally are slowing, and the great white hope Kurt Tippet doing nothing. So when will they win? Not this week against the Dogs, nor the next against Port. In round 7 though they get their chance at home against the Tigers. If they lose that (and frankly the way their playing they may) someone is going to be lynched. The Hawks were in the same position last year and never could get off the ground and it will be the same result for the Crows, finals are a right off.
Brisbane - 4-0. Wow! I don't get it. They are potent AND their midfield is good. Much of that is due to improvement in Rischitelli has been excellent and Brennan has been a revelation. He has transformed himself into a top notch midfielder, rather than a homeless swingman. Add to that Brown's superb form and Fev chipping in and they have a pretty sound team. But how long can it last. My guess is no Brown no Brisbane, but they seem to be built on a few key figures, so anyone of them goes and they could be fragile. Last week they finally beat someone worthy, in the Dogs, but I'm wary of that form because the previous week the Dogs had a nasty fight with the Hawks, and like the Cats before them, they lost after playing the Hawks. Melb up next is a gimmie, but then it gets interesting. They play another peer in Sydney (away), then the surprise packets, Freo and finally Geelong. In 4 weeks we'll know a lot more about Brisbane. Gut feel says they'll drop 1 or 2, but will still be in great shape.
Carlton - 2-2. Win/Loss can be deceiving. They have beat no one (Tigers and Crows) and lost respectfully to Brisbane, and also Essendon. So whats it all mean? Probably that the Blues aren't that good. Their key forward last week (and they won) was Setanta O'Hailpin. What is up with that? Harsh reality check for Blues fans is that they beat Adelaide. And amazingly that doesn't mean much at all. But heck Juddy is back and that does actually make a difference. Not only through his brilliance, but by freeing up the other mids. So what's next? Geelong, Collingwood, St. Kilda and Port (away). This could very easily mean 4 losses. And whatever the Blues will be cooking won't be smelling or tasting that good at all (if you don't get the reference check out their season motto).
Collingwood - 3-1. The Pies are in a very good place. Excellent wins against the Dogs and Hawks, both would be challengers and a great fight that they should have won against the Saints. Mark my words, these guys are a good side and can match it with the best. I have questioned their form a little, mainly because of the mental lapses against the Dees and in front of goal against the Saints, but they still have done the job. Coming up they have very winnable games against Essendon, Carlton and North (lets face it they should NOT drop any of those), so they'll be 6-1 going into a much more interesting draw; Freo at Subi, Geelong, Brisbane at the Gabba and then the Doggies. We'll know a lot more after those 4 games, but they if they are contenders than they should win at least 2 of them.
Essendon - 1-3. Sigh. I get sick of reading about Essendon being a team with a lot of promise. Knights hasn't demonstrated that he can coach, they haven't demonstrated a reasonable forward line and their midfield isn't particularly skilled. On top of all of that they have the dubious honour of having the most over-hyped player in the comp in Ryder. What exactly has he done except for a handful of good performances? Ok enough on the negatives, lets see if I can salvage some positives. Hooker and Pears, two players that a future can be built around. And I suppose they have lost 2 of their 3 against respectable opponents in Geelong and Freo (I don't believe I just said they were respectable). So in summary, finals pretty much no hope. They just aren't good enough. And frankly they need to cut half their list. Sorry, but that harsh reality.
Fremantle - 3-1. Ok I am surprised. Actually that is an understatement. I'm flabbergasted! What the hell is going on? Freo, winning? Freo, beating Geelong? WTF? Deep breaths. Ok I'm back. Freo have been excellent simply because they have won 3 including beating the Cats and took the Saints (sans Reiwaldt) right to the wire in Melbourne. Gone (so it seems) is the classic Freo yo-yo, and now they are playing a harder, meaner style of footy. Lets not get too carried away. 1. 3-1 does not a season make. 2. Pav and Sandilands have be awesome, if one of them is injured or is in poor form who knows what can happen. So I'm waiting to see what happens before I make a call. they have Richmond and West Coast, both should be wins if they are actually the real deal, and then back it up win a win or two against Brisbane at the Gabba, the Pies at home and Sydney at the SCG. If they come out of that with wins, then they are the real deal.
Geelong - 3-1. Ah the Cats. How damn good are they? Very, and that's probably an understatement. They have lost one, at Subi against the improved Dockers and that was after a very tough encounter against the Hawks. Make no mistake they are every bit as good as they have been over the last 3 years. The midfield is as good as ever, the backline still solid and the forward line is successfully experimenting with Podsiadly and a healthy Steve Johnson. If they don't finish top 2 (I had them 4th at the start of the year) I'll be surprised. Carlton and Richmond coming up next are wins, and the Sydney, another improver, at Geelong should be another. So their next text is in 4 rounds time, the Lions at the Gabba and then backed up by the Pies. I would be surprised if they lost more than 1 of those 2.
Hawthorn - 1-3. Brave for 2 matches woeful in the last. What to make of the hapless Hawks? They seemed thereabouts against both the Cats and the Dogs but just weren't good enough. No shame in those losses, but the Pies, well that was a capitulation. I figure there is two explanations: 1. They just aren't good enough and have been overrated. Yes they have some serious talent, but frankly who has really improved, or even stayed as good, since the 2008 GF? Maybe Hodge and Rioli with Gilham showing improvement too. The leave as awful lot of players that have gone backwards. 2. Late preseason injuries, suspensions, ingame injuries, fatigue from hard games against the Cats and Dogs coupled 3 games in 12 days against 3 of last years prelim finalists. So yeah, what do you make out of it? No idea. So the next few games are really important for the Hawks. North, Essendon, West coast, Richmond, Carlton. Thats 5 games that should be very winnable for any team that is a shot at top 4 let alone top 8. If the Hawks do all the right things in those games then they look a heck of a lot healthier. However, they drop a few and all the sudden they look like the top 8 or at least the upp echelons are out of their depth. Very interesting times ahead. Oh and if they do do OK, I can't wait to see what happens in a horror run later where they face Dogs, Cats, Brisbane, St.Kilda, Port (away), Sydney (away).
Melbourne - 2-2. They have been better than expected, but lets not get carried away. Yes they beat Adelaide, but really big deal. Adelaide are rubbish at the moment, and it was here and the Crows and no players on the bench in teh last quarter. That aint a victory to hang your hat on. And they beat Richmond, and that REALLY is nothing to talk about. The team the loses to Richmond is in big trouble. In fact their best performance has been their 1 point loss to Collingwood. A legit contender they took it right up to the Pies, and in all honesty should have won. Melbourne are a young, developing side with some excellent kids. Look no further than Grimes. This kids is a ripper. But they have class all over the ground, not the least being Scully, Trengrove, Frawley, Garland, Petterd, Bate and their best player, Sylvia. Throw Davey in and the reputation of a slow developing (not unusually for a big kid) Watts, and they have the beginnings of a great side. What they really need is a forward line, and for a couple of years Watts isn't going to be ready to carry it. Brisbane, North, Dogs, West Coast, and Port coming up next, and there are 3 potential wins there but realistically they will win a few more, but probably no more than 4 or 5 for the rest of the year.
North Melbourne - 1-3. Early on in preseason I was sucked in by the talent of youth they had especially in the midfield. And what about 3 ruckman? Then there are the leaders in Harvey, Rawlings and most importantly Petrie. These guys were going to be pretty good. But then Petrie went down, I realised Harvey and Rawlings were not the players they had been and the kids, well they are kids and for 90% of them it takes 2-3 years to find their feet. And they've played like that. Bunch of kids with a new coach. Exciting at times, woeful at others. Its going to be that for them. Obviously finals is out of the question, but the club with the smallest membership base in Melbourne has got to put in some brave performances. Their draw isn't going to help. Hawks next, they a genuine fight with Melbourne, Pies, another genuine fight with Adelaide (unless they finally start living up to expectation), then doggies and Freo at Subi. That's a pretty tough run. I wouldn't expect too many wins.
Port Adelaide - 2-2. They have improved on last year as they seem harder at the ball (all reports are that's Laidley's doing) and don't seem to be as yo-yo as they have been. They have won games that they would have hoped to, although perhaps surprised themselves with the West Coast win at Subi, and have been beaten (spanked in teh case of the Cats) by Brisbane and Geelong. Its probably a reflection of where they are at. Somewhere near the bottom end of middle. And they won't get better. With St. Kilda, Adelaide, Essendon and Carlton they have winnable games, but they are also droppable. They could win 3, or lose all 4. It really depends I think more on the opposition (Essendon and Carlton can be up and down) that will dictate Ports results. I can see Port getting somewhere between 7-10 wins, but essentially they are not good enough (their balance of youth and experience isn't quite right), and I don't really think they are well coached. Port should have terminated Williams' contract last year, but thats another story.
Richmond - 0-4. Man they are bad. Its not unexpected, but well maybe they weren't supposed to be THIS bad. Frankly there isn't much that can be salvaged thus far. Cotchin is back, thats good, Martin is a genuine player (or will be in a couple of years), and Reiwaldt does ok whilst playing out of position. But thats it. To be fair it will take time for these kids to show their true colours and also to understand any semblance of a game plan. so what's coming up? Well I'm not going through the list, but if Adelaides form holds round 7 may see a Tigers victory.
St. Kilda - 4-0. They haven't lost a game, but they have lost big Nick. I guess you can never complain when you win everything, including the Pies and a currently firing Freo. I'm not sure if they are as good as last year, but they will be winning lots of games. I mean look at their run, Port, Dogs, Carlton, Bombers, West Coast, Adel, Richmond. In all honesty a team this good would be embarrassed by losing to any of these teams except the Dogs. Top 2 beckons.
Sydney - 3-1. I have been really impressed with the way they've gone about it thus far. Pretty much taken on all challenges, including a full strength Saints outfit in round 1 (a game they deserved to win). However, a little like Melbourne actually, they have beaten low ranked sides in North, Adelaide, and Richmond so we don't have a really good indicator on where they are at. Goodes needs to improve to give them more potency, and stunningly McGlynn's absence in the next few weeks could be telling. West Coast should be defeated, but after that we'll get a true gauge. Lions, Cats (away), Dogs (Manuka), Freo and Hawthorn. That's a tough stretch that I suspect will bring the Swannies back to the pack.
West Coast - 1-3. I must admit I'm a little disappointed. I expected more from West Coast. Kerr hasn't fired and Cox has taken awhile to warm up. They have plenty of young talent but as I've said before, youth takes time. I suspect I got a bit ahead of myself with my early assessments. West Coast will be a really good side in a few years, but similar to North just need time. I can actually quite easily see North, West coast and Melbourne contesting Prelims in about 4-5 years. But with Sydney, Freo, Hawthorn coming up before a really winnable one against Melbourne and more pain with the Saints and Cats over a three round period, they are going to struggle to make an impact this year.
Western Bulldogs - 2-2. Its hard to pick the Dogs. NAB Cup indicated that they were here to play and contend. Since then they lost to a peer in the Pies and another in the Lions, although like Geelong they lost coming off a nasty game against the Hawks. So where are they? I don't really know. They definitely aren't showing the same form they had in preseason, but their next few have some very winnable games and some challenging ones. Adel is a win, St. Kilda will be a great test, Melbourne a win and Sydney at Manuka a test. If they can't win against the Saints or Sydney then the doubts I have will grow. They are teams a serious contender must be able to beat. After round 8 they could well still be at evens at 4-4. Whilst that is not the end of the world, they would be hoping for much better return with over a third of a season done.
Adelaide - 0-4. In summary, their stuffed. There was no shame losing to Freo and Sydney, but Melbourne was gut wrenching and the Blues at home was one that shouldn't have got away. They are seriously bad. What went wrong? A bad preseason and more injuries. Lets throw in an unimaginative game style, old heads that finally are slowing, and the great white hope Kurt Tippet doing nothing. So when will they win? Not this week against the Dogs, nor the next against Port. In round 7 though they get their chance at home against the Tigers. If they lose that (and frankly the way their playing they may) someone is going to be lynched. The Hawks were in the same position last year and never could get off the ground and it will be the same result for the Crows, finals are a right off.
Brisbane - 4-0. Wow! I don't get it. They are potent AND their midfield is good. Much of that is due to improvement in Rischitelli has been excellent and Brennan has been a revelation. He has transformed himself into a top notch midfielder, rather than a homeless swingman. Add to that Brown's superb form and Fev chipping in and they have a pretty sound team. But how long can it last. My guess is no Brown no Brisbane, but they seem to be built on a few key figures, so anyone of them goes and they could be fragile. Last week they finally beat someone worthy, in the Dogs, but I'm wary of that form because the previous week the Dogs had a nasty fight with the Hawks, and like the Cats before them, they lost after playing the Hawks. Melb up next is a gimmie, but then it gets interesting. They play another peer in Sydney (away), then the surprise packets, Freo and finally Geelong. In 4 weeks we'll know a lot more about Brisbane. Gut feel says they'll drop 1 or 2, but will still be in great shape.
Carlton - 2-2. Win/Loss can be deceiving. They have beat no one (Tigers and Crows) and lost respectfully to Brisbane, and also Essendon. So whats it all mean? Probably that the Blues aren't that good. Their key forward last week (and they won) was Setanta O'Hailpin. What is up with that? Harsh reality check for Blues fans is that they beat Adelaide. And amazingly that doesn't mean much at all. But heck Juddy is back and that does actually make a difference. Not only through his brilliance, but by freeing up the other mids. So what's next? Geelong, Collingwood, St. Kilda and Port (away). This could very easily mean 4 losses. And whatever the Blues will be cooking won't be smelling or tasting that good at all (if you don't get the reference check out their season motto).
Collingwood - 3-1. The Pies are in a very good place. Excellent wins against the Dogs and Hawks, both would be challengers and a great fight that they should have won against the Saints. Mark my words, these guys are a good side and can match it with the best. I have questioned their form a little, mainly because of the mental lapses against the Dees and in front of goal against the Saints, but they still have done the job. Coming up they have very winnable games against Essendon, Carlton and North (lets face it they should NOT drop any of those), so they'll be 6-1 going into a much more interesting draw; Freo at Subi, Geelong, Brisbane at the Gabba and then the Doggies. We'll know a lot more after those 4 games, but they if they are contenders than they should win at least 2 of them.
Essendon - 1-3. Sigh. I get sick of reading about Essendon being a team with a lot of promise. Knights hasn't demonstrated that he can coach, they haven't demonstrated a reasonable forward line and their midfield isn't particularly skilled. On top of all of that they have the dubious honour of having the most over-hyped player in the comp in Ryder. What exactly has he done except for a handful of good performances? Ok enough on the negatives, lets see if I can salvage some positives. Hooker and Pears, two players that a future can be built around. And I suppose they have lost 2 of their 3 against respectable opponents in Geelong and Freo (I don't believe I just said they were respectable). So in summary, finals pretty much no hope. They just aren't good enough. And frankly they need to cut half their list. Sorry, but that harsh reality.
Fremantle - 3-1. Ok I am surprised. Actually that is an understatement. I'm flabbergasted! What the hell is going on? Freo, winning? Freo, beating Geelong? WTF? Deep breaths. Ok I'm back. Freo have been excellent simply because they have won 3 including beating the Cats and took the Saints (sans Reiwaldt) right to the wire in Melbourne. Gone (so it seems) is the classic Freo yo-yo, and now they are playing a harder, meaner style of footy. Lets not get too carried away. 1. 3-1 does not a season make. 2. Pav and Sandilands have be awesome, if one of them is injured or is in poor form who knows what can happen. So I'm waiting to see what happens before I make a call. they have Richmond and West Coast, both should be wins if they are actually the real deal, and then back it up win a win or two against Brisbane at the Gabba, the Pies at home and Sydney at the SCG. If they come out of that with wins, then they are the real deal.
Geelong - 3-1. Ah the Cats. How damn good are they? Very, and that's probably an understatement. They have lost one, at Subi against the improved Dockers and that was after a very tough encounter against the Hawks. Make no mistake they are every bit as good as they have been over the last 3 years. The midfield is as good as ever, the backline still solid and the forward line is successfully experimenting with Podsiadly and a healthy Steve Johnson. If they don't finish top 2 (I had them 4th at the start of the year) I'll be surprised. Carlton and Richmond coming up next are wins, and the Sydney, another improver, at Geelong should be another. So their next text is in 4 rounds time, the Lions at the Gabba and then backed up by the Pies. I would be surprised if they lost more than 1 of those 2.
Hawthorn - 1-3. Brave for 2 matches woeful in the last. What to make of the hapless Hawks? They seemed thereabouts against both the Cats and the Dogs but just weren't good enough. No shame in those losses, but the Pies, well that was a capitulation. I figure there is two explanations: 1. They just aren't good enough and have been overrated. Yes they have some serious talent, but frankly who has really improved, or even stayed as good, since the 2008 GF? Maybe Hodge and Rioli with Gilham showing improvement too. The leave as awful lot of players that have gone backwards. 2. Late preseason injuries, suspensions, ingame injuries, fatigue from hard games against the Cats and Dogs coupled 3 games in 12 days against 3 of last years prelim finalists. So yeah, what do you make out of it? No idea. So the next few games are really important for the Hawks. North, Essendon, West coast, Richmond, Carlton. Thats 5 games that should be very winnable for any team that is a shot at top 4 let alone top 8. If the Hawks do all the right things in those games then they look a heck of a lot healthier. However, they drop a few and all the sudden they look like the top 8 or at least the upp echelons are out of their depth. Very interesting times ahead. Oh and if they do do OK, I can't wait to see what happens in a horror run later where they face Dogs, Cats, Brisbane, St.Kilda, Port (away), Sydney (away).
Melbourne - 2-2. They have been better than expected, but lets not get carried away. Yes they beat Adelaide, but really big deal. Adelaide are rubbish at the moment, and it was here and the Crows and no players on the bench in teh last quarter. That aint a victory to hang your hat on. And they beat Richmond, and that REALLY is nothing to talk about. The team the loses to Richmond is in big trouble. In fact their best performance has been their 1 point loss to Collingwood. A legit contender they took it right up to the Pies, and in all honesty should have won. Melbourne are a young, developing side with some excellent kids. Look no further than Grimes. This kids is a ripper. But they have class all over the ground, not the least being Scully, Trengrove, Frawley, Garland, Petterd, Bate and their best player, Sylvia. Throw Davey in and the reputation of a slow developing (not unusually for a big kid) Watts, and they have the beginnings of a great side. What they really need is a forward line, and for a couple of years Watts isn't going to be ready to carry it. Brisbane, North, Dogs, West Coast, and Port coming up next, and there are 3 potential wins there but realistically they will win a few more, but probably no more than 4 or 5 for the rest of the year.
North Melbourne - 1-3. Early on in preseason I was sucked in by the talent of youth they had especially in the midfield. And what about 3 ruckman? Then there are the leaders in Harvey, Rawlings and most importantly Petrie. These guys were going to be pretty good. But then Petrie went down, I realised Harvey and Rawlings were not the players they had been and the kids, well they are kids and for 90% of them it takes 2-3 years to find their feet. And they've played like that. Bunch of kids with a new coach. Exciting at times, woeful at others. Its going to be that for them. Obviously finals is out of the question, but the club with the smallest membership base in Melbourne has got to put in some brave performances. Their draw isn't going to help. Hawks next, they a genuine fight with Melbourne, Pies, another genuine fight with Adelaide (unless they finally start living up to expectation), then doggies and Freo at Subi. That's a pretty tough run. I wouldn't expect too many wins.
Port Adelaide - 2-2. They have improved on last year as they seem harder at the ball (all reports are that's Laidley's doing) and don't seem to be as yo-yo as they have been. They have won games that they would have hoped to, although perhaps surprised themselves with the West Coast win at Subi, and have been beaten (spanked in teh case of the Cats) by Brisbane and Geelong. Its probably a reflection of where they are at. Somewhere near the bottom end of middle. And they won't get better. With St. Kilda, Adelaide, Essendon and Carlton they have winnable games, but they are also droppable. They could win 3, or lose all 4. It really depends I think more on the opposition (Essendon and Carlton can be up and down) that will dictate Ports results. I can see Port getting somewhere between 7-10 wins, but essentially they are not good enough (their balance of youth and experience isn't quite right), and I don't really think they are well coached. Port should have terminated Williams' contract last year, but thats another story.
Richmond - 0-4. Man they are bad. Its not unexpected, but well maybe they weren't supposed to be THIS bad. Frankly there isn't much that can be salvaged thus far. Cotchin is back, thats good, Martin is a genuine player (or will be in a couple of years), and Reiwaldt does ok whilst playing out of position. But thats it. To be fair it will take time for these kids to show their true colours and also to understand any semblance of a game plan. so what's coming up? Well I'm not going through the list, but if Adelaides form holds round 7 may see a Tigers victory.
St. Kilda - 4-0. They haven't lost a game, but they have lost big Nick. I guess you can never complain when you win everything, including the Pies and a currently firing Freo. I'm not sure if they are as good as last year, but they will be winning lots of games. I mean look at their run, Port, Dogs, Carlton, Bombers, West Coast, Adel, Richmond. In all honesty a team this good would be embarrassed by losing to any of these teams except the Dogs. Top 2 beckons.
Sydney - 3-1. I have been really impressed with the way they've gone about it thus far. Pretty much taken on all challenges, including a full strength Saints outfit in round 1 (a game they deserved to win). However, a little like Melbourne actually, they have beaten low ranked sides in North, Adelaide, and Richmond so we don't have a really good indicator on where they are at. Goodes needs to improve to give them more potency, and stunningly McGlynn's absence in the next few weeks could be telling. West Coast should be defeated, but after that we'll get a true gauge. Lions, Cats (away), Dogs (Manuka), Freo and Hawthorn. That's a tough stretch that I suspect will bring the Swannies back to the pack.
West Coast - 1-3. I must admit I'm a little disappointed. I expected more from West Coast. Kerr hasn't fired and Cox has taken awhile to warm up. They have plenty of young talent but as I've said before, youth takes time. I suspect I got a bit ahead of myself with my early assessments. West Coast will be a really good side in a few years, but similar to North just need time. I can actually quite easily see North, West coast and Melbourne contesting Prelims in about 4-5 years. But with Sydney, Freo, Hawthorn coming up before a really winnable one against Melbourne and more pain with the Saints and Cats over a three round period, they are going to struggle to make an impact this year.
Western Bulldogs - 2-2. Its hard to pick the Dogs. NAB Cup indicated that they were here to play and contend. Since then they lost to a peer in the Pies and another in the Lions, although like Geelong they lost coming off a nasty game against the Hawks. So where are they? I don't really know. They definitely aren't showing the same form they had in preseason, but their next few have some very winnable games and some challenging ones. Adel is a win, St. Kilda will be a great test, Melbourne a win and Sydney at Manuka a test. If they can't win against the Saints or Sydney then the doubts I have will grow. They are teams a serious contender must be able to beat. After round 8 they could well still be at evens at 4-4. Whilst that is not the end of the world, they would be hoping for much better return with over a third of a season done.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Round 4 Review
4 tips...heck its better than last week, just not by much.
West Coast d Essendon by 23 - The Eagles did what they really should have done; beat a mediocre side that had to travel. Essendon looked dreadful and the Eagles looked OK and frankly that is what you expect for young sides, inconsistency.
Sydney d North Melbourne by 40 - Swannies by 40! Thats right I picked it! And I've got nothing else to hang my hat on. Sydney were just too good in what was a pretyt substandard match by all accounts. North have a long way to go and the Swans are beating everyone they can. Lets see what happens after round 6, but I'll talk about that in another post.
Carlton d Adelaide by 48 - I'm grumpy. I was all over the Blues earlier in the week, and then they dropped Waite and Thornton so I went off them. I was wrong (not unusual) and Ratten was right (very unusual). I'm not sure if Carlton were that good but I do know Adelaide were that bad.
Collingwood d Hawthorn by 64 - Speaking of bad, that would be a compliment for the rubbish the Hawks dished up. They looked slow, tired and unskilled. The Pies heaped the pressure on and were tenacious. An excellent performance against a Hawthorn side that is just not good enough.
Brisbane d Western Bulldogs by 22 - The Lions were simply waiting to win this. The scoreboard flattered the Dogs early, but really it was only a matter of time before the Dogs were overrun. In hindsight a respectable loss against a team at home and who is proving that they are a force to be reckoned with in 2010.
Melbourne d Richmond by 55 - Richmond held their own on the scoreboard early but it was a rampage by the end. 7 goals to the Dees in the third and the game was blown open. Magnificent return by Siliva (Melbourne's best player) with 5 goals and generally a classier side than the Tigers.
Geelong d Port Adelaide by 95 - Geelong were angry. There 3rd quarter was nothing short of sensational and sadly that is all they needed, one quarter to win the match. Port were just well out of their weight division.
St. Kilda d Fremantle by 15 - Freo by 15 I said. Obviously I meant St. Kilda. OK so I missed the tip but not the intent. This was a great game (from all reports). For 3 quarters it was pretty much even with the Saints managing to kick away in the last. I'm guessing it would have been a pearler, read the papers!
So who really won out?
1. Collingwood - Magnificent. Pressure, tackling, desperation, they really were great. They need to improve their skill level and goal kicking (still) but they got a monkey off their backs with style.
2. Brisbane - How good are they? Well we don't know, but it was a good win against someone they class as a peer.
3. Carlton - Great win! Removing their two bookends before the game was a risky move, but credit to Ratten he obviously saw he had the right match ups.
4. St. Kilda - Tough hard game and a fantastic win without Rooey and Kosi (he aint much but he does provide structure especially without Reiwaldt).
5. Geelong - Simply awesome. Did what they had to and sunk the boots in just to show everyone that they are still the ones to knock off.
6. Fremantle - Didn't lose any respect with this loss. Are they they real deal. They are almost ticking all the boxes.
7. Melbourne - A game that they needed to win. And they did it emphatically. Excellent win, when all they need to do was get one. 55 points lifts them off the bottom rung of teams and into the next level.
8.West coast - They needed this win. 1-3 looks a lot better than 0-4 (ask Adelaide). It was a good performance, but lets face it, they were at home and they only beat a peer.
9.Sydney - They just keep rolling on don't they? Another good win. Not much more to be said.
10. Western Bulldogs - They were outgunned and out run. Two things that shouldn't happen. Eade seems to be losing it a little as well. He is much more free with his comments about players of late, and I'm not sure that is helpful. Watch this space (or better yet a reputable news service).
11. Richmond - Well they were bad. But I'm getting bored of saying it.
12. North Melbourne - The capitulation in the second half wasn't good, but they are young and its bound to happen.
13. Port Adelaide - Out of their weight division. They were just outclassed. Lets see what they are like against a fellow non-contender
14. Essendon - Disappointing loss. It was a game that really should have been a 40 or so point loss, they pegged a few back late, but it they didn't show much all game. Structures especially forward are shot.
15. Adelaide - They are dreadful. Terrible skill and frankly no excuses. This was a game they should have really won, but they are completely lost.
16. Hawthorn - They were horrid. Really, really horrid. Unforced errors, turnovers, no dashing and daring run that is their hallmark, weak forwardline pressure, minimal midfield pressure and a backline that struggled manfully. Soul searching required.
West Coast d Essendon by 23 - The Eagles did what they really should have done; beat a mediocre side that had to travel. Essendon looked dreadful and the Eagles looked OK and frankly that is what you expect for young sides, inconsistency.
Sydney d North Melbourne by 40 - Swannies by 40! Thats right I picked it! And I've got nothing else to hang my hat on. Sydney were just too good in what was a pretyt substandard match by all accounts. North have a long way to go and the Swans are beating everyone they can. Lets see what happens after round 6, but I'll talk about that in another post.
Carlton d Adelaide by 48 - I'm grumpy. I was all over the Blues earlier in the week, and then they dropped Waite and Thornton so I went off them. I was wrong (not unusual) and Ratten was right (very unusual). I'm not sure if Carlton were that good but I do know Adelaide were that bad.
Collingwood d Hawthorn by 64 - Speaking of bad, that would be a compliment for the rubbish the Hawks dished up. They looked slow, tired and unskilled. The Pies heaped the pressure on and were tenacious. An excellent performance against a Hawthorn side that is just not good enough.
Brisbane d Western Bulldogs by 22 - The Lions were simply waiting to win this. The scoreboard flattered the Dogs early, but really it was only a matter of time before the Dogs were overrun. In hindsight a respectable loss against a team at home and who is proving that they are a force to be reckoned with in 2010.
Melbourne d Richmond by 55 - Richmond held their own on the scoreboard early but it was a rampage by the end. 7 goals to the Dees in the third and the game was blown open. Magnificent return by Siliva (Melbourne's best player) with 5 goals and generally a classier side than the Tigers.
Geelong d Port Adelaide by 95 - Geelong were angry. There 3rd quarter was nothing short of sensational and sadly that is all they needed, one quarter to win the match. Port were just well out of their weight division.
St. Kilda d Fremantle by 15 - Freo by 15 I said. Obviously I meant St. Kilda. OK so I missed the tip but not the intent. This was a great game (from all reports). For 3 quarters it was pretty much even with the Saints managing to kick away in the last. I'm guessing it would have been a pearler, read the papers!
So who really won out?
1. Collingwood - Magnificent. Pressure, tackling, desperation, they really were great. They need to improve their skill level and goal kicking (still) but they got a monkey off their backs with style.
2. Brisbane - How good are they? Well we don't know, but it was a good win against someone they class as a peer.
3. Carlton - Great win! Removing their two bookends before the game was a risky move, but credit to Ratten he obviously saw he had the right match ups.
4. St. Kilda - Tough hard game and a fantastic win without Rooey and Kosi (he aint much but he does provide structure especially without Reiwaldt).
5. Geelong - Simply awesome. Did what they had to and sunk the boots in just to show everyone that they are still the ones to knock off.
6. Fremantle - Didn't lose any respect with this loss. Are they they real deal. They are almost ticking all the boxes.
7. Melbourne - A game that they needed to win. And they did it emphatically. Excellent win, when all they need to do was get one. 55 points lifts them off the bottom rung of teams and into the next level.
8.West coast - They needed this win. 1-3 looks a lot better than 0-4 (ask Adelaide). It was a good performance, but lets face it, they were at home and they only beat a peer.
9.Sydney - They just keep rolling on don't they? Another good win. Not much more to be said.
10. Western Bulldogs - They were outgunned and out run. Two things that shouldn't happen. Eade seems to be losing it a little as well. He is much more free with his comments about players of late, and I'm not sure that is helpful. Watch this space (or better yet a reputable news service).
11. Richmond - Well they were bad. But I'm getting bored of saying it.
12. North Melbourne - The capitulation in the second half wasn't good, but they are young and its bound to happen.
13. Port Adelaide - Out of their weight division. They were just outclassed. Lets see what they are like against a fellow non-contender
14. Essendon - Disappointing loss. It was a game that really should have been a 40 or so point loss, they pegged a few back late, but it they didn't show much all game. Structures especially forward are shot.
15. Adelaide - They are dreadful. Terrible skill and frankly no excuses. This was a game they should have really won, but they are completely lost.
16. Hawthorn - They were horrid. Really, really horrid. Unforced errors, turnovers, no dashing and daring run that is their hallmark, weak forwardline pressure, minimal midfield pressure and a backline that struggled manfully. Soul searching required.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Round 4 Tips
Let's see if I can improve on last weeks 3.
West Coast v Essendon - Essendon like to run and Subi is the place to do it. Add to that that West Coast have looked average of late and all the sudden it looks like back to back wins for the Dons. But I reckon this is a really tough tip. The Eagles are better than they are playing, so I'm going to go home ground advantage. Eagles by 6.
North Melbourne v Sydney - North were fantastic last week when they beat the Eagles, but a harsh dose of reality from the much improved Swans will see them lose convincingly. Swannies by 40
Adelaide v Carlton - The Crows are beset by injuries. Poor buggers are having trouble fielding a team. On top of that the ol' eye ball collector is back, and he is a damn fine player, but then they go drop Waite and Thornton. Madness! Are they tanking already? Oh and I want to point out that they have lost the last 7 against the Crows, not winning since 2004. So I'm tipping the Crows, 16 points.
Collingwood v Hawthorn - This game should be a cracker. Both teams have shown some form but not enough in the last 2 weeks to convince anyone. Yes the Hawks have a great history over the Pies (bunnies anyone), but the Pies are reasonably healthy and have had the extra couple of days break. Hawks are also coming off 2 bruising encounters add to that that Buddy is out. The Pies haven't recalled Anthony for some reason. He would have straightened up the Pies a bit methinks. Do I sound unsure? I should. Because I am unsure. I'm backing the Hawks to win due to history and very little separating their formlines. Hawks by 18.
Brisbane v Western Bulldogs - Speaking of crackers, Polly is going to be full after Saturday night. Lions v Dogs is going to be a ripper. Again history plays a part with the Dogs doing very well against the Lions in recent years. But both sides look a bit different and both sides are in good form. I'm backing the Dogs basically because they have a great record at the Gabba and there are big questions marks over Black playing. Doggies by 8.
Richmond v Melbourne - How can anyone tip Richmond? Even against Melbourne. Dees by 25.
Geelong v Port Adelaide - Geelong is going to be angry. They don't like losing. And they get a host of great players back. Even the trip back from WA shouldn't be a factor here. Port has been up and down, but there's no way they can win this one. Geelong 50+
St. Kilda v Fremantle - Freo has form (who would have ever thought that would be typed out), but so do the Saints. Freo are coming down to their hated stadium, whilst the Saints love it at Etihad. One problem. No Reiwaldt (and no Kosi to pretend to be a target). I'm going for the upset seeing traditional rules no longer apply (see my wrap up of Round 3 for details). Freo by 15.
West Coast v Essendon - Essendon like to run and Subi is the place to do it. Add to that that West Coast have looked average of late and all the sudden it looks like back to back wins for the Dons. But I reckon this is a really tough tip. The Eagles are better than they are playing, so I'm going to go home ground advantage. Eagles by 6.
North Melbourne v Sydney - North were fantastic last week when they beat the Eagles, but a harsh dose of reality from the much improved Swans will see them lose convincingly. Swannies by 40
Adelaide v Carlton - The Crows are beset by injuries. Poor buggers are having trouble fielding a team. On top of that the ol' eye ball collector is back, and he is a damn fine player, but then they go drop Waite and Thornton. Madness! Are they tanking already? Oh and I want to point out that they have lost the last 7 against the Crows, not winning since 2004. So I'm tipping the Crows, 16 points.
Collingwood v Hawthorn - This game should be a cracker. Both teams have shown some form but not enough in the last 2 weeks to convince anyone. Yes the Hawks have a great history over the Pies (bunnies anyone), but the Pies are reasonably healthy and have had the extra couple of days break. Hawks are also coming off 2 bruising encounters add to that that Buddy is out. The Pies haven't recalled Anthony for some reason. He would have straightened up the Pies a bit methinks. Do I sound unsure? I should. Because I am unsure. I'm backing the Hawks to win due to history and very little separating their formlines. Hawks by 18.
Brisbane v Western Bulldogs - Speaking of crackers, Polly is going to be full after Saturday night. Lions v Dogs is going to be a ripper. Again history plays a part with the Dogs doing very well against the Lions in recent years. But both sides look a bit different and both sides are in good form. I'm backing the Dogs basically because they have a great record at the Gabba and there are big questions marks over Black playing. Doggies by 8.
Richmond v Melbourne - How can anyone tip Richmond? Even against Melbourne. Dees by 25.
Geelong v Port Adelaide - Geelong is going to be angry. They don't like losing. And they get a host of great players back. Even the trip back from WA shouldn't be a factor here. Port has been up and down, but there's no way they can win this one. Geelong 50+
St. Kilda v Fremantle - Freo has form (who would have ever thought that would be typed out), but so do the Saints. Freo are coming down to their hated stadium, whilst the Saints love it at Etihad. One problem. No Reiwaldt (and no Kosi to pretend to be a target). I'm going for the upset seeing traditional rules no longer apply (see my wrap up of Round 3 for details). Freo by 15.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Review Round 3
A word of caution, do not assume that I have any knowledge about football. 3 tips...that's just sad for a guy writing a footy blog.
St. Kilda d Collingwood by 28 - For a low scoring game this was a beauty. The Pies went the knuckle early and it seemed to work as the Saints looked rattled. Rooey was nullified and then when he twanged his hammy it looked all over. But the Pies woeful kicking kept the Saints in it, and in the end they willed themselves over the line.
North Melbourne d West Coast by 25 - OK well, er, that's a rule I can cross off the list then. North was very good and led superbly by Harvey. West Coast made too many errors. They had their chances in the last but squandered them.
Brisbane d Port Adelaide by 27 - Well they may not be a 2 man side, but those 2 still kicked 8 (geez Browny is good, another 5). Sherman bobbing up with 4 didn't hurt. Brisbane started well and just carried on. A 40+ point 3 quarter time margin was too much to be reeled back.
Essendon d Carlton by 20 - This one sits as one that got away for the Blues. They look the better side on paper, but paper don't win you footy games. Essendon ran harder and attacked more. But lets not get away from one glaring fact, this was a game played by two very average teams, playing average football.
Sydney d Richmond by 55 - No surprise at all. Tigers had tons of skill errors. Sydney didn't.
Melbourne d Adelaide by 16 - OK so I was wrong (but its been a shocking round for me). Dees carried on their form from the Pies and notched up a great win against a Crows outfit that are struggling badly. Melbourne started poorly, but due to several injuries to Adelaide they managed to claw their way back in a low scoring affair.
Western Bulldogs d Hawthorn by 16 - This game had echoes of last week Cats v Hawks encounter. The Hawks couldn't get away even though they dominated early, but in the third they really started to put their stamp on the game as injuries forced it to open up. Had it not been for dreadful goal kicking they would have had a handy lead. In the end the Hawks ran out of puff, probably due to the hard game last week and shorter break, but the dogs class won out. Most notably their ability to nullify Franklin (who did range up the ground but looked in dreadful form).
Fremantle d Geelong by 7 - OK. I have no idea. That is another two rules down. Damn them! Freo was superb to stay in touch, but to come from behind at 3 quarter time against Geelong no less is astounding. Mind you I'm not prepared to call Freo legit, not yet.
And my ratings of the performances:
1. St. Kilda - stunning performance. Gone for all money but toughed it out without their superstar.
2. Fremantle - Holy Dockers AFL! Freo beat Geelong! WTF? Brilliant, exceptional and surely they are close to being taken seriously.
3. Melbourne - A win is a win is a win. They beat an Adelaide that was down in form, confidence and personnel. But you know what, they don't care. Great effort for a club that is bursting to prove itself.
4. North Melbourne - an excellent performance especially considering they were flogged to an inch of their lives last week.
5. Brisbane - A very good win away. You can't ask for more than taking up and passing each test thrown at them. I would love to see them win with a poor performance from Brown.
6. Essendon - Well at least they showed they can win. They beat a peer when they really weren't expected to.
7. Western Bulldogs - A very good win against a quality opponent. Some excellent performances, particularly from Lake, Cooney, Murphy and Gilbee. With Hall finally breaking free in the last from what had been a pretty good defensive effort by the hawks. Getting back on track.
8. Collingwood - They were very good, but let themselves down dreadfully with only 4 goals (none in the 2nd half) and 17 points.
9. Sydney - Did what was expected and so far have really faced their challenges well. Might be flying under some people's radars, but not mine.
10. Hawthorn - They ran out of legs in the end but their hardness can't be questioned. Still, they are 1-2 which makes the Pies next week a crucial clash.
11. Geelong - Yes they lost. Yes it was to Freo. But no Ottens, Mooney and Scarlet is massive. I really wouldn't be too concerned.
12. Carlton - would be very disappointed with that loss. Too many of their good players were nullified or effectively useless. No semblance of a forwardline strategy.
13. Port Adelaide - they were jumped early and could never catch up. They seem to be very much one of the also rans, not able to match it with the big boys.
14. West Coast - pretty disappointing really. Again they had their chances but just couldn't capitalise. 1.7 in the last, missing gettable shots is a sin.
15. Adelaide - A terrible loss. Yes there are excuses, but harsh reality says that they were not good enough against a team that really isn't that good. Very troubling times for a team that was earmarked as a cert for the finals.
16. Richmond - another poor showing and no signs of improvement. Sadly enough for Tigers fans this is a season they should just not got out of bed for.
St. Kilda d Collingwood by 28 - For a low scoring game this was a beauty. The Pies went the knuckle early and it seemed to work as the Saints looked rattled. Rooey was nullified and then when he twanged his hammy it looked all over. But the Pies woeful kicking kept the Saints in it, and in the end they willed themselves over the line.
North Melbourne d West Coast by 25 - OK well, er, that's a rule I can cross off the list then. North was very good and led superbly by Harvey. West Coast made too many errors. They had their chances in the last but squandered them.
Brisbane d Port Adelaide by 27 - Well they may not be a 2 man side, but those 2 still kicked 8 (geez Browny is good, another 5). Sherman bobbing up with 4 didn't hurt. Brisbane started well and just carried on. A 40+ point 3 quarter time margin was too much to be reeled back.
Essendon d Carlton by 20 - This one sits as one that got away for the Blues. They look the better side on paper, but paper don't win you footy games. Essendon ran harder and attacked more. But lets not get away from one glaring fact, this was a game played by two very average teams, playing average football.
Sydney d Richmond by 55 - No surprise at all. Tigers had tons of skill errors. Sydney didn't.
Melbourne d Adelaide by 16 - OK so I was wrong (but its been a shocking round for me). Dees carried on their form from the Pies and notched up a great win against a Crows outfit that are struggling badly. Melbourne started poorly, but due to several injuries to Adelaide they managed to claw their way back in a low scoring affair.
Western Bulldogs d Hawthorn by 16 - This game had echoes of last week Cats v Hawks encounter. The Hawks couldn't get away even though they dominated early, but in the third they really started to put their stamp on the game as injuries forced it to open up. Had it not been for dreadful goal kicking they would have had a handy lead. In the end the Hawks ran out of puff, probably due to the hard game last week and shorter break, but the dogs class won out. Most notably their ability to nullify Franklin (who did range up the ground but looked in dreadful form).
Fremantle d Geelong by 7 - OK. I have no idea. That is another two rules down. Damn them! Freo was superb to stay in touch, but to come from behind at 3 quarter time against Geelong no less is astounding. Mind you I'm not prepared to call Freo legit, not yet.
And my ratings of the performances:
1. St. Kilda - stunning performance. Gone for all money but toughed it out without their superstar.
2. Fremantle - Holy Dockers AFL! Freo beat Geelong! WTF? Brilliant, exceptional and surely they are close to being taken seriously.
3. Melbourne - A win is a win is a win. They beat an Adelaide that was down in form, confidence and personnel. But you know what, they don't care. Great effort for a club that is bursting to prove itself.
4. North Melbourne - an excellent performance especially considering they were flogged to an inch of their lives last week.
5. Brisbane - A very good win away. You can't ask for more than taking up and passing each test thrown at them. I would love to see them win with a poor performance from Brown.
6. Essendon - Well at least they showed they can win. They beat a peer when they really weren't expected to.
7. Western Bulldogs - A very good win against a quality opponent. Some excellent performances, particularly from Lake, Cooney, Murphy and Gilbee. With Hall finally breaking free in the last from what had been a pretty good defensive effort by the hawks. Getting back on track.
8. Collingwood - They were very good, but let themselves down dreadfully with only 4 goals (none in the 2nd half) and 17 points.
9. Sydney - Did what was expected and so far have really faced their challenges well. Might be flying under some people's radars, but not mine.
10. Hawthorn - They ran out of legs in the end but their hardness can't be questioned. Still, they are 1-2 which makes the Pies next week a crucial clash.
11. Geelong - Yes they lost. Yes it was to Freo. But no Ottens, Mooney and Scarlet is massive. I really wouldn't be too concerned.
12. Carlton - would be very disappointed with that loss. Too many of their good players were nullified or effectively useless. No semblance of a forwardline strategy.
13. Port Adelaide - they were jumped early and could never catch up. They seem to be very much one of the also rans, not able to match it with the big boys.
14. West Coast - pretty disappointing really. Again they had their chances but just couldn't capitalise. 1.7 in the last, missing gettable shots is a sin.
15. Adelaide - A terrible loss. Yes there are excuses, but harsh reality says that they were not good enough against a team that really isn't that good. Very troubling times for a team that was earmarked as a cert for the finals.
16. Richmond - another poor showing and no signs of improvement. Sadly enough for Tigers fans this is a season they should just not got out of bed for.
Friday, April 9, 2010
Fang's tips for Round 3
St. Kilda v Collingwood - Heath Shaw is a massive out. Its really going to hurt their run from the backline and they need all the help they can get in that area against a Saints side the loves to make it hard to leave their forward line. Harry O must play on Reiwaldt outside of 50, and Presti should pick him up when he is in it. Hard to actually construct those match ups. Saints do well against the Pies and I can't see this being any different. 18 points.
North Melbourne v West Coast - Another rule of tipping, don't back a side that lost by 100 points or more in the previous week. And West Coast did almost beat Port last week. Gotta go the Eagles, by 18.
Carlton v Essendon - Essendon have given me nothing to tip them. I question their 3 quarters against the Cats, and attribute that more to the Cats not really trying. The Blues have shown me something, a 3rd quarter last week that was sublime. On to of that the Bombers have dropped over a quarter of their side and the Blues have made a form change. Stability in the line up equals the win for me. Blues by 30
Sydney v Richmond - Hmm let me think. Actually, no need. Sydney by plenty, 45 points
Port Adelaide v Brisbane - Brisbane is away from home for the first time of the year and I'm still not entirely convinced that they are not a 2 man side. They've done well, no mistake, but so has Port. They held of a fast finishing, albeit poor, opponent in North and then had a great come from behind win against West Coast. I reckon Port has enough at home to pip the Lions, but it'll be a close one, 6 points.
Melbourne v Adelaide - I want to tip Melbourne after they showed a heck of a lot last week. I want to tip Melbourne because Adelaide have been dreadful. I want to tip Melbourne because its at the G. But I'm tipping Adelaide because they have hardened bodies, are actually a good side, and have the perfect opportunity to bounce back. Adelaide by 30
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn - Doggies had a stroll last week, Hawks busted a gut. On that and also the fact that the Dogs have done very well against the Hawks in recent times I'm going Doggies by 18.
Fremantle v Geelong - Two tipping rules come into play, 1. Never tip Freo and 2. Always tip Geelong. So that is what I am going to do. I wish the game was as clear cut though. Geelong were very good last week against a determined if tiring Hawks. But with Mooney and Scarlett out their structures are going to be out of whack. Fremantle has defied all expectation and actually won a couple of games of footy. Not only that, they won away! This is a new look Freo side and frankly they are still very much unknown. This is the big test though. Win and we learn something about Freo being able to grab their opportunities. Lose and we are still in the dark. Cats by 25.
North Melbourne v West Coast - Another rule of tipping, don't back a side that lost by 100 points or more in the previous week. And West Coast did almost beat Port last week. Gotta go the Eagles, by 18.
Carlton v Essendon - Essendon have given me nothing to tip them. I question their 3 quarters against the Cats, and attribute that more to the Cats not really trying. The Blues have shown me something, a 3rd quarter last week that was sublime. On to of that the Bombers have dropped over a quarter of their side and the Blues have made a form change. Stability in the line up equals the win for me. Blues by 30
Sydney v Richmond - Hmm let me think. Actually, no need. Sydney by plenty, 45 points
Port Adelaide v Brisbane - Brisbane is away from home for the first time of the year and I'm still not entirely convinced that they are not a 2 man side. They've done well, no mistake, but so has Port. They held of a fast finishing, albeit poor, opponent in North and then had a great come from behind win against West Coast. I reckon Port has enough at home to pip the Lions, but it'll be a close one, 6 points.
Melbourne v Adelaide - I want to tip Melbourne after they showed a heck of a lot last week. I want to tip Melbourne because Adelaide have been dreadful. I want to tip Melbourne because its at the G. But I'm tipping Adelaide because they have hardened bodies, are actually a good side, and have the perfect opportunity to bounce back. Adelaide by 30
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn - Doggies had a stroll last week, Hawks busted a gut. On that and also the fact that the Dogs have done very well against the Hawks in recent times I'm going Doggies by 18.
Fremantle v Geelong - Two tipping rules come into play, 1. Never tip Freo and 2. Always tip Geelong. So that is what I am going to do. I wish the game was as clear cut though. Geelong were very good last week against a determined if tiring Hawks. But with Mooney and Scarlett out their structures are going to be out of whack. Fremantle has defied all expectation and actually won a couple of games of footy. Not only that, they won away! This is a new look Freo side and frankly they are still very much unknown. This is the big test though. Win and we learn something about Freo being able to grab their opportunities. Lose and we are still in the dark. Cats by 25.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Round 2 Review
Another 6, and another satisfactory performance.
Brisbane d Carlton by 19 - What a great game! Lions look good, Blues come back with a stellar quarter led by a brilliant Murphy, but then one J.Brown came to the show. And then it was all over. A magnificent performance by Brown who effectively willed his side over the line. But it does cast the question; where is Brisbane at? There is a massive reliance on Brown. He has had two crackers and Brisbane have won, I want to know what happens if he misses a game or has a shocker? Carlton were magnificent in the third and missed too many opportunities in the second, and eventually blown away. They shouldn't have been. They had the running and they had an extra two days rest. Mark my words, J. Brown won this game. Both teams still have a lot to prove.
Collingwood d Melb by 1 - I admit it. I didn't expect this. Melbourne had every opportunity to win this game, but just couldn't quite get there. 1 point, 1 lousy point. Melbourne did everything they needed to after last week. They were hard, brave, and at times skillful. Yet 1 point means little joy. They should be gutted. It will be very interesting to see how they bounce back next week against an Adelaide that is down and out and themselves clambering for respectability. Collingwood? No intensity, not on the job and probably a touch of arrogance led to a poor preparation. They are a very good side Collingwood, and I doubt they will have another lapse like this anytime soon, but perhaps, just perhaps, we (me) went a little overboard after last week.
Port Adelaide d West Coast by 3- I'm taking notice. Port Adelaide a perennially inconsistent team were at it again. A goalless third term after leading by 14 at the half showed all the classic power signs. I for one didn't pick an off the canvas like revival in the 4th. But credit where credit is due. They have found ways to win (or is that not to lose?). I can't say they are doing everything right, but they are winning and at the end of the day that is all that matters. West Coast, they would be disappointed. They were solid throughout (on the scoreboard at least) but obviously couldn't quite finish off the hard work. They are young and inexperience, yadda, yadda, yadda, but at 0-2 they need to start getting over the line.
St. Kilda d North Melbourne by 104 - Either St. Kilda are that good, or they are bullies, or North are that bad. Bit hard to tell really. This was a slaughter. Simple as that. Its the sort of result I would have expected last year when the Saints were cruising, but not this year. It probably does demonstrate how far the Roos are. A team chockers of talent kids does not mean squat. You need that blend of good veterans and mid career players, and I think that the Roos are lacking. I have no doubt they will improve this year, but not significantly. They need time to mature and Scott needs time to mold them.
Sydney d Adelaide by 33 - Sydney set this game up in the first and won it in the second. Adelaide couldn't bring it back and they have to be asking questions. It does highlight again how important a pres-season is. I said it last week, the Crows of 2010 may well be the Hawks of 2009. Sydney is finding different ways to score, which is exactly what they needed. McGlynn, and ex-hawk who demonstrates great gusto, but is not exactly renowned for skill, kicks 5. Incredible. However the most important thing is that they are spreading their goal kickers, and showing that they can still win in the middle sans Jolly. Things continue to look bright for Sydney, but in Adelaide a few more poor performances and the unrest will come.
Fremantle d Essendon by 44 - Why oh why didn't I tip them (well because I'm not insane). I wanted to but Freo needs more than 1 (or 2) win to convince me that they have actually improved. Watch this space, because we need time and evidence that there is a new Freo. Essendon were very disappointing, although it isn't that surprising. They just aren't that good a side. They will perform well for patches and they will win a decent share of games, but in reality they need a semblance of a forward line and a working midfield. They just don't have the overall talent/experience in my book. Lets no ignore Freo though, they played an excellent running game and were aided chiefly by dominance in the ruck. Sandilands is the premier ruckman in the comp, as a mate of mine highlighted to me last week, and with him firing consistently the Dockers go a long way to improving.
Western Bulldogs v Richmond by 72 - Why do I think I'll be saying this, or similar a lot this year? Richmond showed some fight but right now just aren't good enough. Simple. The Dogs are a good side, and will monster poor sides. Simple. Of course they were disappointing last week so were bound to come out and destroy Richmond (who showed good fight last week). There is nothing at all to take away from this game that we didn't already know.
Geelong d Hawthorn by 9 - Fantastic game! One thing I learned out of this one is that both of these teams are in that 'peer' group, along with the Pies, Saints and Dogs. Geelong showed excellent persistence to finally claw over a gallant Hawthorn. Both sides were hard at it all day and neither gave an inch, although the Hawks could have done with better disposal. In the end though it did feel like a matter of time before the Cats won, and that's exactly what happened. The Hawks got out early, but the cats really did have the better of the running after the first. The key was Geelong's ability to shut down the Hawks run from the backline causing the Hawks to be stagnant and unsure, which caused turnovers. Great game, great win.
Ok so my performers of the week ladder:
1. Fremantle - a fantastic win against a side and ground they struggle with. Are they actually proving that they are on the up?
2. Sydney - a comprehensive win against a down and out Crows. Sydney continue to show fight and class.
3. Melbourne - If they got away with the points they would by far be number 1 this week. They didn't, but what a great fight back after last week.
4. Geelong - Fantastic spirited performance, showing that they are still the benchmark.
5. Port Adelaide - Going to the West and winning is no mean feat, especially so for a middling club. But doing so when they were hapless in the 3rd, that's very impressive.
6. J. Brown - He's just too good. I'm calling it early but Brownlow anyone?
7. Hawthorn - Furthered their steps toward respectability with a strong game, but need to get a win on the board from the next couple against the Dogs and Pies respectively
8. St. Kilda - Workman like 100+ point win. That's frightening in its own right
9. Carlton - They were very very good in one quarter, and had it not been for one player would have won.
10. Western Bulldogs - It feels a bit odd having them this low after a great win on the scoreboard, but really they did what was expected.
11. West Coast - Will be very disappointed, but they showed that they just keep going. Couldn't exploit their own good work.
12. Collingwood - I'm loathe to put them this high. But I suppose they won.
13. Richmond - They were hard at it, but they just aren't good enough
14. Essendon - Very disappointing. They showed some reasonable signs against a much better opponent last week, and this week showed nothing against a much weaker one
15. North Melbourne - Dreadful. This was the performance Melbourne had last week. They should have and needed to show more. The only difference is that St. Kilda kept playing whereas last week the Hawks didn't.
16. Adelaide - I tipped the Swans, I expected Adelaide to lose, but not like this. There needed to be something shown, something delivered at home. Dark times for a recent top 8 lock in.
Brisbane d Carlton by 19 - What a great game! Lions look good, Blues come back with a stellar quarter led by a brilliant Murphy, but then one J.Brown came to the show. And then it was all over. A magnificent performance by Brown who effectively willed his side over the line. But it does cast the question; where is Brisbane at? There is a massive reliance on Brown. He has had two crackers and Brisbane have won, I want to know what happens if he misses a game or has a shocker? Carlton were magnificent in the third and missed too many opportunities in the second, and eventually blown away. They shouldn't have been. They had the running and they had an extra two days rest. Mark my words, J. Brown won this game. Both teams still have a lot to prove.
Collingwood d Melb by 1 - I admit it. I didn't expect this. Melbourne had every opportunity to win this game, but just couldn't quite get there. 1 point, 1 lousy point. Melbourne did everything they needed to after last week. They were hard, brave, and at times skillful. Yet 1 point means little joy. They should be gutted. It will be very interesting to see how they bounce back next week against an Adelaide that is down and out and themselves clambering for respectability. Collingwood? No intensity, not on the job and probably a touch of arrogance led to a poor preparation. They are a very good side Collingwood, and I doubt they will have another lapse like this anytime soon, but perhaps, just perhaps, we (me) went a little overboard after last week.
Port Adelaide d West Coast by 3- I'm taking notice. Port Adelaide a perennially inconsistent team were at it again. A goalless third term after leading by 14 at the half showed all the classic power signs. I for one didn't pick an off the canvas like revival in the 4th. But credit where credit is due. They have found ways to win (or is that not to lose?). I can't say they are doing everything right, but they are winning and at the end of the day that is all that matters. West Coast, they would be disappointed. They were solid throughout (on the scoreboard at least) but obviously couldn't quite finish off the hard work. They are young and inexperience, yadda, yadda, yadda, but at 0-2 they need to start getting over the line.
St. Kilda d North Melbourne by 104 - Either St. Kilda are that good, or they are bullies, or North are that bad. Bit hard to tell really. This was a slaughter. Simple as that. Its the sort of result I would have expected last year when the Saints were cruising, but not this year. It probably does demonstrate how far the Roos are. A team chockers of talent kids does not mean squat. You need that blend of good veterans and mid career players, and I think that the Roos are lacking. I have no doubt they will improve this year, but not significantly. They need time to mature and Scott needs time to mold them.
Sydney d Adelaide by 33 - Sydney set this game up in the first and won it in the second. Adelaide couldn't bring it back and they have to be asking questions. It does highlight again how important a pres-season is. I said it last week, the Crows of 2010 may well be the Hawks of 2009. Sydney is finding different ways to score, which is exactly what they needed. McGlynn, and ex-hawk who demonstrates great gusto, but is not exactly renowned for skill, kicks 5. Incredible. However the most important thing is that they are spreading their goal kickers, and showing that they can still win in the middle sans Jolly. Things continue to look bright for Sydney, but in Adelaide a few more poor performances and the unrest will come.
Fremantle d Essendon by 44 - Why oh why didn't I tip them (well because I'm not insane). I wanted to but Freo needs more than 1 (or 2) win to convince me that they have actually improved. Watch this space, because we need time and evidence that there is a new Freo. Essendon were very disappointing, although it isn't that surprising. They just aren't that good a side. They will perform well for patches and they will win a decent share of games, but in reality they need a semblance of a forward line and a working midfield. They just don't have the overall talent/experience in my book. Lets no ignore Freo though, they played an excellent running game and were aided chiefly by dominance in the ruck. Sandilands is the premier ruckman in the comp, as a mate of mine highlighted to me last week, and with him firing consistently the Dockers go a long way to improving.
Western Bulldogs v Richmond by 72 - Why do I think I'll be saying this, or similar a lot this year? Richmond showed some fight but right now just aren't good enough. Simple. The Dogs are a good side, and will monster poor sides. Simple. Of course they were disappointing last week so were bound to come out and destroy Richmond (who showed good fight last week). There is nothing at all to take away from this game that we didn't already know.
Geelong d Hawthorn by 9 - Fantastic game! One thing I learned out of this one is that both of these teams are in that 'peer' group, along with the Pies, Saints and Dogs. Geelong showed excellent persistence to finally claw over a gallant Hawthorn. Both sides were hard at it all day and neither gave an inch, although the Hawks could have done with better disposal. In the end though it did feel like a matter of time before the Cats won, and that's exactly what happened. The Hawks got out early, but the cats really did have the better of the running after the first. The key was Geelong's ability to shut down the Hawks run from the backline causing the Hawks to be stagnant and unsure, which caused turnovers. Great game, great win.
Ok so my performers of the week ladder:
1. Fremantle - a fantastic win against a side and ground they struggle with. Are they actually proving that they are on the up?
2. Sydney - a comprehensive win against a down and out Crows. Sydney continue to show fight and class.
3. Melbourne - If they got away with the points they would by far be number 1 this week. They didn't, but what a great fight back after last week.
4. Geelong - Fantastic spirited performance, showing that they are still the benchmark.
5. Port Adelaide - Going to the West and winning is no mean feat, especially so for a middling club. But doing so when they were hapless in the 3rd, that's very impressive.
6. J. Brown - He's just too good. I'm calling it early but Brownlow anyone?
7. Hawthorn - Furthered their steps toward respectability with a strong game, but need to get a win on the board from the next couple against the Dogs and Pies respectively
8. St. Kilda - Workman like 100+ point win. That's frightening in its own right
9. Carlton - They were very very good in one quarter, and had it not been for one player would have won.
10. Western Bulldogs - It feels a bit odd having them this low after a great win on the scoreboard, but really they did what was expected.
11. West Coast - Will be very disappointed, but they showed that they just keep going. Couldn't exploit their own good work.
12. Collingwood - I'm loathe to put them this high. But I suppose they won.
13. Richmond - They were hard at it, but they just aren't good enough
14. Essendon - Very disappointing. They showed some reasonable signs against a much better opponent last week, and this week showed nothing against a much weaker one
15. North Melbourne - Dreadful. This was the performance Melbourne had last week. They should have and needed to show more. The only difference is that St. Kilda kept playing whereas last week the Hawks didn't.
16. Adelaide - I tipped the Swans, I expected Adelaide to lose, but not like this. There needed to be something shown, something delivered at home. Dark times for a recent top 8 lock in.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
AFL Round 2 Tips
Brisbane v Carlton - Let's hope this is a cracker. It has all the ingredients. Both clubs coming off good wins. Both clubs expected to challenge for the 8. And of course Fev v Carlton for the very first time. Of course none of that has anything to do with tipping. The big factors here are: how can Carlton effectively match up against 2 of the premier forwards in the game? How will Brisbane go after a 5 day break v a 7 day one? Then there is travel factor, and of course Ratten's coaching. Can he actually coach? I'm not sure. No Fev and no Judd takes away last years plan. So what is he going to do against a real team? I'm going safety and tipping the Lions by 20
Collingwood v Melbourne - Lets just move on. Collingwood by 60+
St. Kilda v North Melbourne - I was disappointed in the Saints last week. They are a legitimate contender and frankly did not deserve to win. However, they are a better side than North who was brave in defeat last week. But I just can't see how North will have the maturity in bodies to take it up to the Saints who will win easily, by, let's say 40.
West Coast v Port Adelaide - this could be a great game. It is an intriguing contest with two sides that performed reasonably well last week. Port held off a fast finishing Roos and WC got over run by the Lions. WC have one significant advantage, home ground. They are also pretty healthy and did well for 3 quarters against a far superior team in Brisbane. I expect class to show out and see the Eagles win by 25
Adelaide v Sydney - This is a really tough game to pick. Adelaide had a stinker last week and Sydney were excellent in defeat. Home ground to Adelaide is an advantage, as is history. The Crows consistently beat the Swans and its been awhile since the Swans have won in Adelaide (a quick search showed at least the last 4 have been losses). However, I'm am going to go with form over history for this one. Adelaide really were dreadful so I'm going for the Swans in a close one, 6 points.
Essendon v Fremantle - Would you believe Freo actually won a match at Telstra Dome in the NAB cup? Well believe it because it happened! Freo were fantastic at home last week and Essendon brave in defeat (although I am still wondering how much of that performance can be attributed to Geelong's apathy for 3 quarters). Again I'll go on form and pick Freo (going against all standard tipping rules - eg NEVER tip Freo), by...hang on, I can't do it. Essendon by 12
Richmond v Western Bulldogs - read Pies v Melb preview. Doggies by 40. OK perhaps its not quite that clean cut. Richmond were better than the result implied last week, and by all reports the Doggies threw in a shocker against the Pies. Honestly though class will prevail. I cannot see how the young Tiger cubs can can overcome a stronger and angry Doggies.
Hawthorn v Geelong - these two teams always seem to throw together some epic games, and this one should be no different. Geelong has the stronger midfield, further strengthened by Ottens who provides a ruck option (Blake and Renouf cancel each other out) and the Hawks are not going to be sharking anything from the Geelong mids. That means the Hawks lose the clearances. However, the Hawks have the better forward line thanks to Buddy and Rioli (reportedly) returning. whilst Geelong does have an excellent defense, the Cats will rely on midfield pressure stopping the ball being delivered lace out. The other end of the ground is less interesting. Geelongs' forwards aren't that threatening for a meek Hawks defense, but again its the goal scoring mids and genius of Johnson and Chapman that win out. I expect it to be close, but Cats by 15 for me
Collingwood v Melbourne - Lets just move on. Collingwood by 60+
St. Kilda v North Melbourne - I was disappointed in the Saints last week. They are a legitimate contender and frankly did not deserve to win. However, they are a better side than North who was brave in defeat last week. But I just can't see how North will have the maturity in bodies to take it up to the Saints who will win easily, by, let's say 40.
West Coast v Port Adelaide - this could be a great game. It is an intriguing contest with two sides that performed reasonably well last week. Port held off a fast finishing Roos and WC got over run by the Lions. WC have one significant advantage, home ground. They are also pretty healthy and did well for 3 quarters against a far superior team in Brisbane. I expect class to show out and see the Eagles win by 25
Adelaide v Sydney - This is a really tough game to pick. Adelaide had a stinker last week and Sydney were excellent in defeat. Home ground to Adelaide is an advantage, as is history. The Crows consistently beat the Swans and its been awhile since the Swans have won in Adelaide (a quick search showed at least the last 4 have been losses). However, I'm am going to go with form over history for this one. Adelaide really were dreadful so I'm going for the Swans in a close one, 6 points.
Essendon v Fremantle - Would you believe Freo actually won a match at Telstra Dome in the NAB cup? Well believe it because it happened! Freo were fantastic at home last week and Essendon brave in defeat (although I am still wondering how much of that performance can be attributed to Geelong's apathy for 3 quarters). Again I'll go on form and pick Freo (going against all standard tipping rules - eg NEVER tip Freo), by...hang on, I can't do it. Essendon by 12
Richmond v Western Bulldogs - read Pies v Melb preview. Doggies by 40. OK perhaps its not quite that clean cut. Richmond were better than the result implied last week, and by all reports the Doggies threw in a shocker against the Pies. Honestly though class will prevail. I cannot see how the young Tiger cubs can can overcome a stronger and angry Doggies.
Hawthorn v Geelong - these two teams always seem to throw together some epic games, and this one should be no different. Geelong has the stronger midfield, further strengthened by Ottens who provides a ruck option (Blake and Renouf cancel each other out) and the Hawks are not going to be sharking anything from the Geelong mids. That means the Hawks lose the clearances. However, the Hawks have the better forward line thanks to Buddy and Rioli (reportedly) returning. whilst Geelong does have an excellent defense, the Cats will rely on midfield pressure stopping the ball being delivered lace out. The other end of the ground is less interesting. Geelongs' forwards aren't that threatening for a meek Hawks defense, but again its the goal scoring mids and genius of Johnson and Chapman that win out. I expect it to be close, but Cats by 15 for me
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