2010 Ladder Predictions - the Results

You may recall way back when I started this blog I put in my ladder predictions (http://fangsfootymusings.blogspot.com/2010/03/2010-ladder-predictions.html).

Well, Round 22 is done and dusted and therefore I can do a comparison.

So my predictions were (and where they ended up in brackets followed by likely finish):

1. Western Bulldogs (4th - likely finish 1-3) - Well they were there abouts. They did finish top four. Probably a little below expectation after their barnstorming pre-season. Or is it just another case of pre-season meaning not much?

2. St Kilda (3rd - 1-4) - As I expected (and no really surprise here) they finished comfortably top 4.

3. Collingwood (1st - 2-7) - I had a sizeable range because I just wasn't sure where their goals would come from, but Dawes has been a revelation. In him they finally found a player that can crush packs and kick goals like Rocca did. On top of that their kids came on in leaps and bounds ensuring that that veterans like Lockyear, O'Bree and Medhurst couldn't get games. Oh and I was proved right, Fraser isn't a ruckman.

4. Geelong (2nd - 1-6) - Another great year from the Cats doing pretty much what everyone expected.

5. Hawthorn (7th - 2-10) - I think I was right on the money with my range prediction. Bunch of basketcases at the Hawks. 1-6 after 7 rounds, and over the next 15 rounds managed to get 11.5 and 3.5.

6. Adelaide (11th - 3-8) - Surprised they were this bad, but like the Hawks had a shocking start, unlike the Hawks they started their form too late, and couldn't really maintain it.

7. Brisbane (13th - 3-10) - I had no idea what they were going to do, and frankly neither did anyone else. All over the shop, but mainly due to a horrid year with injury (more so than questionable recruiting)

8. Sydney (5th - 6-10) - Geez Roos is a legend! The surpassed my expectations by finishing one game out of the 4 (and %) and did it with a list that could have easily gone backwards.

9. West Coast (16th - 6-12) - Man they were bad. I figured that they would have been more solid this year, but they are in dire straights.

10. Carlton (8th - 8-14) - They did as well as I expected, so I guess that means a pretty good year all up.

11. Essendon (14th - 9-15) - No real surprises here. They had a crap coach and a crap list.

12. North (9th - 6-12) - Smack bang in the middle of what I thought, but in retrospect I was generous because of all the kids they played.

13. Port (10th - 10-16) - Like Carlton, did as well as could be expected. So should be pretty happy....although they did sack their coach.

14. Fremantle (6th - 12-16) - WTF! Mark Harvey and his kiddy bunch led by Sandilands and Pavlich were terrific this year. Most improved side in the comp without a doubt.

15. Richmond (15th - 13-16) - Bang! Only team I nailed.

16. Melbourne (12th - 13-16) - Exceeded expectations with their host of kids. In particular, some excellent performances, in particular running Collingwood to a draw and a one point loss.

Knights gone!

I love it! Nothing against Matty Knights but this makes the landscape in the AFL way more interesting.

Most people know that he couldn't coach, but look at the list. Sheedy didn't exactly leave it in good shape. Knights hasn't exactly had much to work with. And the incoming coach isn't going to have it much easier, although he may be ruthless.

Somewhat interestingly Hardwick almost got the Dons gig instead of Knights but the rumour at the time was that Hardwick told the Bombers the truth, they had a crap list and they needed to build from the ground up. They didn't like that because Knights offered the quick fix...we'll they've lost 3 years because of that.

Now they need to rebuild from with whatever they can of their list.

So who will coach? My gut feel (known to be wrong) says that they have signed someone already and thats why they sacked Knights now. Mark Williams anyone?

AFL Review Round 22

Freo d Carlton by 6. A see-sawing game which saw Freo really dominate most of the play, but the Blues stormed home in the last to kick 6 goals to 2 to come oh so close. The result reflected the strong Freo play early where they didn't capitalise.

Geelong d West Coast by 44. OK so it wasn't a slaughter, but the Cats didn't try and were woeful in front of goal early.

Hawks d Pies by 3. An enthralling contest of 2 halves. The first a dour struggle of defensive pressure, one which the Pies controlled, in particular limiting the Hawks ability to move the ball out of defence. And a second half that was the opposite a free flowing goal fest, and one that suited the Hawks more so than the Pies. The Hawks looked gone with 10 left and trailing by 19 but 4 goals in quick succession saw them snatch the lead and hold it, due to a dreadful last gasp set shot miss from Beams.

Adelaide d St Kilda by 28. A low scoring affair, and one that ultimately the Saints didn't care enough about to win. The cotton wooled their players in the last and Adelaide won with ease.

Sydney d Brisbane by 38. In the end it was an easy win, but the Lions were in it, at least on scoreboard at half time. Then class took over and the Swans marched on to an unsurprising win.

Dogs d Bombers by 29. I didn't see this game, but looking at the scoreboard and reading about it tells me it would have been boring. Dogs jumped the Dons early and that lead was essentially maintained throughout the match. Yawn.

Port d Tigers by 10. The Tiges were down and out at halftime, after an onslaught by Port that saw a tied game at the first quarter be a 43 point lead at the main break. But the Tigers kick 13 to the Power's 6 goals in the second half to be defeated by time. A valiant effort and one I'm sure Cousins will remember.

North d Dees by 10. Now this really was a see-sawing game! It was close all day, with the Roos controlling the scoreboard at the end of the 1st and 2nd, but the Dees grabbing the lead by 2 going into the last. 5 goals to North and only 3 to the Dees saw the Roos snatch the lead.

This post I'll only concentrate on the remaining 8 teams, as for the others, well, who cares.

1. Freo - It was a tough win and after a belting the week before, but Harvey was vindicated in his decision to rest half his side against the Hawks. His best against the Blues were all those that had the previous week off. They won the right to the home final, and really, after the season they have had they deserve it.

2. Sydney - Did what they had to and what was expected. They get their home final, and going into the match they actually had to play for it. They are playing very well at the moment, and its their youth that are getting them through games more so than their wise old heads. Plenty to like in the Swans camp. So its the Blues next week in Sydney.

3. Hawthorn - Their performance was more meritorious than Freo or Sydney due to the calibre of opposition, however they still couldn't get the home final. It was an excellent match by the Hawks who once again showed they can match it with the very best, and all without their best player, Hodge. The big question is which Hawthorn team will turn up next week in Freo?

4. Dogs - It wasn't flashy and they lost Griffen in the process (for how long?), but they got the win that they desperately needed. They are understrength and face a Pies out fit that will be angry after dropping a game that they had opportunity to win. For me the Dogs look gone, and they'll need a miracle next week.

5. Cats - meh, boring.

6. Saints - They didn't care and they didn't try when they needed to. But they got no injuries of note and that is important.

7. Pies - They were just not good enough on the day to get the points. Does it matter? Probably not. They have broken their winning streak, but really this will most likely rejuvenate them. I wouldn't want to be the Dogs.

8. Blues - Had their chances in the last to pinch it and if they had it would have made a big difference with them playing the Hawks in Melbourne instead of Sydney in Sydney. However this group wasn't good enough, and probably deservedly finish clear 8th, because they are the least likely team to do anything in this finals series.

AFL Preview Round 22

Well here it is folks, the final round. A round that will see 8 teams end their misery, and 8 teams embark on a new quest, finals glory.

Sadly we already know who is in both groups of 8, so really who cares? Those out of the 8 want to end the season on a good note and those in, want to consolidate (or find) some form. So what's going to happen?

Fremantle v Carlton - Should be a cracker! Freo have a host of returning stars and best 22 players, and Carlton have..er..Judd. Its at Subi which is a massive bonus, to Freo, but their form isn't flash. They've lost their last 3 and are only 2 wins from their last 7. It aint a great formline folks. The Blues have also had their troubles, but at least are 3 from 5 and one of those loses was to the Cats, so no shame there. The Blues actually have a good record at subi in recent time with 3 wins from their last 3 games (before that it was 11 loses straight, but they were pretty crap back then). So who to tip? Bringing in as many as Freo have would be unsettling, but its essentially like a bye for those they are bringing in. I expect the Dockers to reverse their fortunes and win in a close one. Freo by 12. Upset chance 45%

Geelong v West Coast - I'm not wasting my time. Cats by 89. Upset chance 0.00003%

Hawthorn v Collingwood - Huge game for the Hawks. If they win they stay alive for the home final (see below) and probably more importantly, give themselves a massive shot of confidence. The Pies, well, its a bit meaningless. It would be good for them to smash a "challenger" and confirm their status as pretenders, and it would be good to get back to their normal ways after that shocker last week, but really it means little. Ultimately the thing that decided this match (yes I am aware of tense) is that Hodge is out. The Pies, by 27. Upset chance 40%

Adelaide v St Kilda - Its in Adelaide, but...well... Adelaide aren't really that good and the Saints are finding some form. For me the Saints are coming into the sort of form that makes them almost as good a chance as the Pies (and Cats) to win the Flag. Adelaide has a lot of kids but I can't see them beating the Saints. Saints by 34 upset chance 20%

Brisbane v Sydney - Really interesting match and one of the four that shape the bottom half of the 8. Can Brisbane lift again for a home game? Based on their performance last week they should really challenge, except Brown is out. However Sydney, since losing to the Cats (no shame), have looked a different side, except Mumford is out. With 3 wins over finals teams (Hawks, Freo and Dogs). Interestingly two of those were at the SCG which they own and also against teams (at the time of playing them) that were going through bad form. So its hard to gauge where they are at. They don't play against the Lions well either, having a 2 - 1 - 7 record in their last 10, although they beat the Lions last time at the Gabba in 2009. Tough tip. I'm going Sydney based on form and quality of opponent they beat. But the Lions wouldn't surprise with a win. Swans by 21, upset chance 40%

Dogs v Essendon - Dogs seem to be falling at every hurdle now. First Cooney, now Morris, both gone for the season. Not only that but their form stinks. Essendon have nothing to play for. they showed that last week. Didn't play for themselves, or the coach. I read an article today that said that the thing that may save Knights is the lack of people to take the job. What a lot of rubbish! There are plenty of good assistants out there and a couple of wily old vets too. Dogs have everything to play for the Dons nothing, yet personnel changes to both teams make me tip what some would say is an upset. Bombers by 5, upset chance 49%.

EDIT - I just saw Watson is out for the Bombers..missed that last night...so my tip is now Dogs by 20, upset chance 40%

Tigers v Port - The Tigers looked to have run out of puff but were admirable in defeat last week and Port seem to have found a second wind under Primus. But the Tigers have a good recent record (winning 2 of their last 3 and both at AAMI no less!) and it is in Melbourne. Its a toss of the coin and who knows which side will show up to represent their respective teams. Form says Port, I say Tigers by 34, upset chance 49%

Melbourne v North - Both sides really have had fairytale seasons, both surpassing expectations. This is match that could be part of a rivalry that extends into the next 5 years. Both have exciting young lists, topped with some excellent experienced players.Form is a tricky one too. Melbourne has lost its last 2 but won the 4 before that and North is on even pegging over the last 6. The clincher for me was North's excellent win last week (against a crap side but at Subi) and North has won the last 7 in a row. Roos by 27, upset chance 35%

Below is a graphic that shows the outcomes of results that impact the the bottom half of the 8

My tips lead to the 'Likely' scenario in the last column.

So if that happens what do we see in the first week of the finals?

Pies v Dogs

Cats v Saints

Swans v Blues

Freo v Hawks

Makes for a very interesting first week!

AFL Review Round 21

Geelong d Carlton

Well this one went pretty well to script. I actually didn’t turn it on until half time and the Blues were all over them for about 20 minutes or more and looking pretty good but ultimately they were beaten by the class of the Cats, something which the Blues are still searching for. It was all good for the Cats except J Pod who is in trouble after crunching Gibbs. Had a good game though did J Pod and he’s a good player but I think somewhere along the line this season he went from being underrated to overrated in the space of about 5 weeks. There’s a reason why he wasn’t picked up until he was 28. It will make selection interesting though for the Cats in the finals if J Pod is out and then comes back. The Blues showed enough and have a decent team but just have a few major holes before they should worry about thinking they are a contender. Name their best backmen? I have no idea. Russell? Thornton, Doull? Is he still playing? Once they find a few backmen then they should make the leap as long as it is before Judd fades. They have the ruckmen and enough players to fill in for Fev up forward to kick a winning score. The Blues will finish 6 or 7 and if they win a final then that would be a pretty successful year I would think. I’m not sure what all the kafuffle was about a few weeks ago, more than likely it was just over inflated expectations from their fans and marketing department!!

St Kilda d Richmond

Kosy!!! He’s alive!!! Well this week anyway. The Tiges did a lot better than I thought and really gave the Saints all they could handle for three quarters. Milne must have been spewing, he would have penciled in this game as one where he could kick a bag as it would be the perfect soft affair where his downhill skiing skills could be used effectively. As the game was a bit close, as usual he couldn’t get a touch. Honestly when your previous coach (no matter how much of crackpot he might be) comes out and says he wouldn’t play him in a final the week after kicking 11 goals there is something very wrong. Another damning indictment is the recruitment of Schneider, to do, pretty much the same job Milne does and he’s not that consistent himself. The only reason Milne is still in that team is they have no one to replace him. If he was up for trade would anyone take him? I doubt it. If he gets a premiership I’ll spew. Goddard had taken mark of the year until I just saw Liam Jurrah’s versus Port Adelaide. Wooo. Nice.

Hawthorn d Fremantle

Currently watching this live and its 10 minutes before halftime and the Hawks are 9 goals in front and could win by about 150 pts. Buddy on his way to about 15 goals. Gunna be a big night on the drugs for the Hawkers tonight. Hope there are no drug testers in Tassie tonight. Now flicking back and forth to the Box Hill Hawks vs Williamstown which is a blow out the other way. Freo playing some kid who just got smashed by Campbell Brown I’m not too sure that is the experience Harvey was hoping to get for his younger players. Clive Waterhouse kicked 2 for the Dockers though and looked good at 45 years of age. Buddy only got 5 goals. The Coke must have slowed him down in the 2^nd half certainly wasn’t Freo.

Collingwood d Adelaide

Well the Crowbots attacked and were very effective in bleeding any excitement out of the game whatsoever. They kicked more goals than the Pies too but lost, when was the last time that happened. It was such a boring night, and frustrating and even the win in the end was boring. Soon as the game finished I bolted, seemed pointless to sing the song for that. Crows actually played really well and showed how to challenge the Pies zone. Never sure how to judge Neil Craig as a coach, his team is always prepared well and drilled beautifully to give a contest much like Sydney, however they seem to lack that wildcard or flair outside of their structured play, which just about all premiership teams need. Burton was the one but he’s too injured and Craig doesn’t seem able to develop or find another, is that his fault?? The Pies, well it was their typical non-blockbuster effort, struggling to find some kind of inspiration. In the end we actually dominated the last quarter and should have won by a lot more, but having said that the Crows could have been a lot further in front too. Pies fans hoping it’s the shocker we had to have, out the way. Opposing fans hoping that’s how we’ll kick in the finals. Less said about this game the better.

Sydney d Western Bulldogs

Yes. Thanks for coming. See don’t listen to Fang. Again, it went pretty much as I predicted. The Swannies spirit too much for the faltering Dogs. The Bloods are now looking at hosting a final. A really great season by the Swannies considering some of the players they have had missing for large chunks. Why can’t Essendon, Brisbane and a few other teams cover injuries like the Swannies do? Lewis Jetta starting to kick goals, Keiran Jack taking over from Kirky and the Swannies looked to have retooled and stayed competitive for the next few years. They need to fill a couple more holes, in the middle with some more speed and get a decent forward, not sure Bradshaw wins them a Premiership? But they certainly don’t seem to have dropped away as quick as most thought. Doggies?? Where are they at? This was their year!! They certainly don’t have the youngest of lists and with Cooney and Johnson looking done, it might be 2 and out in the finals this year the way they are playing at the moment.

Port d Melbourne

Yes. Haha. Fang loses again. Just as predicted again, the Dees can’t travel and Port look to be playing Matty Primus into a job. What’s with Port?, if they played like this halfway during the year a few times they’d be a finals chance. Injury has stuffed them a bit but what a wacky team. Melbourne, well no good on the road, but it’s a young team and something that they can improve on. Overall an excellent year though and 2^nd to only Fremantle in overall improvement, exciting years to come to with the Wonaemearri, Jurrah forward setup. Did you see Jurrah’s mark? That was awesome, hope he has a long career and doesn’t run into a coach like Neil Craig who would probably coach that out of him or delist him.

Brisbane d Essendon

Damn it, my first stuff up... gotta admit I didn’t see this one coming at all, even though a few other people couldn’t make a decision on this one, I really didn’t think the Bombers were this bad. Anyway the disappointment cup… and the winner is….. the Bombers, not the Lions, because the Bombers were more disappointing! Brisbane looked good from the opening bounce, I’m not sure if it’s just because of a lack of pressure by the Bombers but the Lions looked sharp and Brown particularly dangerous all day and the Lions are still racked injury too. Are the Bombers? Not really. So are they really this bad? I think the answer is Yes!. No point bagging any Bombers players or I would be here all day. But quickly Brett Stanton, just not up to it, Kyle Reimers what an embarrassment. Anyway we could bag the Bombers all day, but they do a good enough job of that, themselves. The Lions if they get everyone up and running and have Black and Power and Rich in the middle they will get enough ball out of the guts for the Fev, Brown and Banfield forward line to work and the defence of Drummond, Merrett etc works well enough. It’s just a matter of all staying healthy and not retiring haha. Is that possible? On a personal note its Sunday night at 8.30pm kids are in bed, I’m writing crap about the footy and watching Tom Hanks finest film ‘BIG’ on the box. Gee does life get much better than this?

Kangaroos d West Coast

Boomers 300^th! What a star. He played well too. Was a pretty decent game with the home state advantage evening up the contest. Eagles were up by 9 deep into the last quarter but a few mistakes from their young fellas and the young fellas from the Kangaroos pounced. Really rate Brad Scott as a coach and they have plenty of good kids coming through, they aren’t going to lose many key pieces to retirement soon and have had plenty of injuries this year but still played well. Plenty to like about the Roos. Can they get a big name there though, they just don’t have the facilities or fan base. Should have taken the Gold Coast offer in my opinion. The Coasters pretty disappointing year to end up with the wooden spoon, but I couldn’t see them winning back to back wooden spoons, in fact with their home ground advantage I could see a finals appearance quicker than they think.

Well 7 out of 8 ain’t a bad effort and hopefully gets me into outright lead in my tipping comp. Hope no one took Fangs advice. For the finals, it looks like 3 horse race between the Cats, Pies and Saints and as the last 2 finals GF’s have shown anything can happen on the day, you just gotta make it. Go Pies!!!

******

And a big thanks to Anonymous for his excellent preview and review of the round. Can't argue with his results either. And also thanks to Gaz and T for their great work.

I'm well rested after 3 weeks off but I'll back on board to preview what looks a pointless round 22 (unless you are barracking for a team chasing a home final in 5th or 6th). - Fang

AFL Preview Round 21

We're upto round 21 already and we have another guest preview/reviewer. This time Anonymous, the frequent commenter on the blog has stepped up to the plate. I expect some fascinating reading considering he has 110+ tips.

Carlton vs Geelong

The massive pretenders against the massive contenders. The Cats apparently written off after losing to the Pies 2 weeks ago. Hahaha, that lasted all of one quarter, the Pies might be judged the best at the moment but the Cats are the Premiers and have to be beaten in the Finals to lose that title. The Blues well they are the complete opposite. Having said that they are not without a chance in this one. Geelong with one eye on the finals and few virus issues while the Blues or in reality Judd have been playing well. However I’m going with the better team. Geelong by 34pts. Upset 40%

St Kilda vs Richmond

Boring! The Saints are the worst/best team going around, the Tiggers are the best/worst team going around. I’m astounded by the Saints abiltiy to win and annoyed too. To me they have the worst list out of the top 5 to 6 teams if you go 1-22 or deeper however their top 10 players are the equal with anyone. Their bottom six players lost them last years granny (that’s you Milne you dirty --) and I reckon it might happen again. Anyway they’ll account for the fading Tiggers this week with their Saints footy (Saints footy = boring everyone to snores) Saints by 48pts. Upset 5%

Hawthorn vs Fremantle

Hahaha. What a joke this has become. Why not call it off give Hawks the points and let everyone have a rest. About 6 or 7 Freo players are rested along with Tarrant and Sandilands. Dunno who Freo brought in but I’m pretty sure I saw Peter Mann, Ben Allan and even Clive Waterhouse on the ins!!! Hawks going along just ok and should win this by about 10 goals unless they get bored which is highly likely with Hodge and Franklin staying off the drugs just long enough to play footy. Well that’s what I heard!!! Hawks by 60 points. Upset 1%

Collingwood vs Adelaide

The mighty, awesome, excellent, handsome, exciting Pies versus the crowbot ugliness from churchville. Other than immediate fans who cares really. A nothing game and you can’t really tip against the Pies at the moment. Maybe the Crows might get up for Nathan Bock!!!! Haha. Do the Pies need to drop one before the finals? Have we peaked too early? Will Cloke kick straight when it counts? And who’s our best 22? Who cares. If these are the only problems we have then we don’t really have any problems. Just have to put it together when it counts. The Pies should win Sat night unless they are bored into submission. Pies by 45pts. Upset 5%

Sydney vs Western Bulldogs

Wow this might be the game of the Round so far. Two teams actually playing for something and not putting the gun in the holster. I think the Swans have the form and playing at home for king of Bloods Brett Kirk’s last game at the SCG that should be enough to get them over the line. Love the way the Swans give a contest every week and Paul Roos is a bloody legend. Keep producing great pickups in Mummy, McGlynn, Kennedy etc etc the list goes on and on. The Doggies seem to have lost something somewhere and no one has a clue what it is. To beat the Swannies up their might a be a good kickstart for the finals but I’m going with the Swannies by 15pts. Upset 49.9%

Port Adelaide vs Melbourne

The exciting Dees versus the doing it for Primus Port! Dees should win this however they are useless interstate. Port playing ok for Primus. Port beat the Hawks two weeks ago at home. The Hawks beat the Dees last week. I wish it was that easy!! Um… I’m going Port at home by 22pts. Upset chance 25%.

Essendon vs Brisbane

Ah.. The disappointment cup!! Just cut the crap and put Hird in as coach would you. This time when the Bombers do a worldwide search for a coach with Premiership experience they might not just go for the guy in the office down the hall who had no premiership experience. The Lions equally disappointing and they are in serious trouble. What happens in the next few years when Brown, Black and Power retire. Their pickups aren’t young and aren’t good either. Buchanan, Clarke, Maguire, Fevola, Raines. No draft picks to help in next few years. I think Voss may have stuffed up! Oh well its only Brisbane and I still hate them for the 2003 grand final. Bombers by 5pts. Upset 15%

West Coast vs Kangaroos

Boomers 300^th! What a star. Every time he plays the Pies or anyone for that matter he kicks their butt. Been a great players for the Roos and I think they’ll get up for him even on the road in Perth. West Coast haven’t got much to play for and will probably fold under the shinboner spirit. Bit of a wasted season for the Coasters but they still aren’t as disappointing as the Bombers or Lions!! Roos by 30pts. Upset chance 40%.

Well there you have it. Anonymous throws his opinions up. For me I agree with his tips bar Port and Swans.

AFL Review Round 20

Collingwood d Essendon

Its always nice to get your first tip right as you can go to sleep happy in the knowledge you are still on track for having tipped the perfect 8 for the round. There was no real surprise in the result, though the meekness of Essendon’s surrender may have raised a few eyebrows. The Dons did well to promote the seatbelt campaign because otherwise their head on collision with the pies may have proved fatal. With the exception of Watson and Slattery the Essendon team were disgraceful to a man. In the person of Kyle Reimers I have never seen a man celebrate so much with so little talent or impact on a game. For the pies it was high fives all round, even though captain Nick Maxwell only managed 4 touches. Travis Cloke looked to have finally sorted his goal kicking, with a 4.1 half. Alas, the natural order reasserted itself in the second half and he ended up with 5.5. For the pies, it will take a disaster for them to lose their grip on 1^st spot with only 2 rounds to go.

Carlton d Richmond.

The only thing I got wrong with this tip was the size of the margin. The blues just love beating up on the tigers and this game was no exception. It wasn’t a surprising result as Carlton had a lot more to play for. This was a big win for them and has pretty much guaranteed a spot in the 8. All the usual down hill skiers err Carlton stars had a day out and the blues seem to be finally building some momentum going into the finals.

Sydney d Fremantle.

My prediction for this game was pretty much spot on, with Sydney’s class and discipline finally prevailing in the final term. This would have been an excellent game to attend as the lead seemed to switch every 5 minutes. Daniel Hannebery had a monster of a game and Mumford showed yet again what a great recruit he will be for Sydney. Supercoachers take note, he will be a good starting ruckman for next year. How Fremantle must be missing Sandilands. There are two games to go and their spot in the 8 is secure, but they could finish anywhere between 5^th and 8^th.

Geelong d Western Bulldogs.

Wow. I expected the cats to win but this was an absolute demolition. Flu or no flu, the dogs must be shattered by this abject performance. The cats were determined to show they were still a force to be reckoned with and proceeded to record the biggest win of the round against the strongest opposition. Garry Jnr was back to his fluent best and indeed the entire Geelong midfield was dominant. There would have been no more relived forward than Podsiadly who thankfully cashed in with 3 goals while Stevie J brought up his 300^th career goal in yet another 5 goal game. For the dogs there were few positives, though at least Giansiracusa can now point to a game where he played well when the rest of the team didn’t. Ben Hudson was sorely missed by the Bulldogs and would now appear to be one of their most important players. Sadly, Minson didn’t much to state a case for a prolonged return to the team.

Port Adelaide d Westcoast

Port Adelaide dominated the game early but was wasteful in front of goals, leaving the door open for a WC resurgence in the final quarter. In the end, Port hung on by a point despite being outscored 4 goals to 1 in the final quarter. Perhaps strung by trade rumours, Dean Cox pulled out a vintage game, dominating the hit outs and possession. Newcommer Andrew Strijuk contributed 3 goals, the highest for either side. Port ended up taking the 4 points and not much else from the game.

Adelaide d Brisbane

This is where my perfect run of tips came to an end. Though to be fair, had I known the J Brown would miss I probably would have changed it! Ah well, my plans for overthrowing Fang and taking over his blog must wait another year... Of the game itself, Brisbane lead early only for Adelaide to square the ledger at ¾ time and then press on to win by 7 points in the final quarter. It was the game of the ruckman/forwards with both Kurt Tippet and Mitch Clark booting 5 majors. Both have under-delivered this year but remain some of the most exciting key position prospects of the next few years.

Hawthorn d Melbourne

The tough, wet conditions suited the hawks mature bodies and they ultimately proved too strong for a gallant Melbourne side that never gave up trying. While the Hawks led for most of the game it was only in the dying minutes where they kicked away to record the 21 point margin. Having observed Hodge struggle when made accountable, the Demons tried the same tactic by putting Cam Bruce on the competitions most highly rated half back flanker. It was a duel that was comfortably won by Bruce although Hodge did manage two important last minute goals to decide the game for the hawks. This game was an excellent result for the hawks, who are now a game and a half and a truck load of % ahead of 9^th placed North Melbourne.

St Kilda d North Melbourne

Nothing surprising about this result, although North probably took a few steps forward by remaining competitive for longer periods. The Kangas would also have taken solace from the excellent performance of Lachlan Hansen, who kicked 4 goals against high quality opposition. After having played down back for a couple of years, he appears to have found a place as a key position forward. For the Saints, all the usual suspects cashed in and they would have been especially pleased with the output of Nick Reiwoldt, who kicked 7 goals and should have had at least 10 due to his wasteful 7.5 day out.

So there you have it, 7 out of 8 tips correct, which just goes to show that every dog has their day (unless you are a Western Bulldog). The biggest winner of the round are Carlton, Sydney and Hawthorn who have all secured a spot in the 8. The biggest losers are North and Melbourne who will now have to wait for next year to get a taste of finals. Oh and the doggies of course, who seem destined for another preliminary final exit on current form.

As a footnote: Fang (me) tipped 7 and Gaz, last weeks reviewer tipped a cool 8 (to jump into sole first place with 107).

AFL Preview Round 20

I would like to welcome my next guest preview/reviewer, T, to share his insights into this weeks games. But be warned, he is 3 tips behind me and 11 off the leader.

Despite my shocking record with tipping this year, Fang has asked me to share my footy insights for this round. I feel his faith is misplaced but who knows? I could tip 8 and look like an overly modest genius! Let’s get to it.

Essendon v Collingwood. Well that’s a nice easy one to start with. Essendon are largely terrible while the pies are flying. Both teams have swung the changes with the pies taking the chance to rest some of their battered players while Essendon lose Davey, Winderlich, Prismal, Houli and Fletcher. Apart from Fletcher they don’t look like big losses until you look at the names coming in. Dyson and Slatterley are OK but Melksham and two first gamers are not going to worry the pies. In terms of game style, the Dons might have the foot speed to break out of the Pies stifling forward press but its unlikely they will maintain their composure under the immense pressure that will be exerted on them. Prediction. Pies by 40 plus. I will put one caveat. It has been a long, long, long time since the pies have gone undefeated for a season against their big rivals Richmond, Carlton and Essendon. Can Essendon spoil the party yet again?

Carlton v Richmond. No change for Carlton while Richmond lose McGuane, Thursfield, Farmer and Webberley. Richmond gave it a crack last week but were overpowered in the final quarter. Carlton recorded a much needed win. At this critical stage of the season I expect ladder position to tell. Richmond under Hardwick have shown that they deserve respect so don’t expect Carlton to take this game easy. I suspect the Blues extra class and strong final quarter form to be enough to win. Prediction Carlton by 20+

Fremantle v Sydney. Our first tough one for the week. Let’s look at the changes. Freo lose Van Berlo, Palmer and Bollenhagen whilst welcoming back Clarke, Walters and Schammer. That means the big news is that Sandilands is still out, a huge blow for Freo. Sydney have made no changes. My initial gut feel was that Freo will record a much needed win, but looking at the teams, Sydney actually look the stronger on paper. However, the big Subiaco ground should favour Freo, then again, Sydney have a bit more pace this year with the emergence of Lewis Jetta. Do I come across as indecisive? You bet. Prediction. I’ll take a stab and say Sydney in a nail biter, less than 2 goals in this one.

Western Bulldogs v Geelong. At the start of the week I was pretty keen on the doggies to win this one as their form over the last month has been outstanding while Geelong seem to be saving some of their strength for the finals. A virus sweeping through the doggies ranks has forced me to revise my opinion. The dogs lose Cooney, Hudson, Hill, and Grant. Mind you, their ins are pretty handy with Higgins, Ward, Minson and Murphy. Geelong lose Taylor and Ling to injury and welcome back Hunt and Wojinski. My real concern for the doggies is the number of players who will run out at 80-90% due to lingering effects of the flu. In terms of game style, these are familiar foes and Etihad holds no fear for either (except for the surface of course). Prediction. Cats to fall behind early only to win it in the final quarter as virus induced fatigue slows the doggies down.

Port Adelaide v West Coast. This one doesn’t exactly scream ‘game of the round’ does it. Port are one of the Jekyl and Hyde teams of the comp (more Hyde in recent years) while WC have been universally terrible this year. A loss to fellow cellar dwellers Brisbane sees them in real danger of collecting the spoon this year. Looking at the ins and outs, Port lose Banner and Krakour while regaining the services of Salter and Stewart. The Eagles lose McKinley, Jones, Priddis, Brown and Stevenson. They welcome back Selwood, Waters, MacKenzie, Wilson and Shuey. This looks like an easy tip with Port having found a little something under stand-in coach Primus while the Eagles have been frankly embarrassing. Prediction. Port shouldn’t have too much trouble beating an Eagles team whose away record is even worse than their home one. Port by 24 or so.

Brisbane Lions v Adelaide. The Lions host Adelaide after having recorded a rarer than hen’s teeth win last week. Both teams are out of finals contention, although Adelaide might still be able to cling to a ‘mathematical chance’. Winning this game by about 200 points would be a good start. Brisbane go in unchanged with crazy Vossy backing in the team that triumphed over the Eagles. Adelaide lose Griffen and Martin. Can Brisbane record another win? My feeling is that yes they can. While the ‘Gabbatoire’ is not the feared destination it used to be, the Crows are a very patchy side this year. Prediction. Brisbane by at least 3 goals.

Hawthorn v Melbourne. This shapes as one of the games of the round. Not so much because of the quality of football we can expect but because this game is crucial for the top 8 aspirations of both sides. Hawthorn lose Young to soreness and have dropped Taylor and Suckling. This means surprise recruit Skipper returns to the side and yet another club embraces the one key ruck model. Melbourne have named an unchanges side. In terms of predicting a winner it's a tough call. Both teams like to play the corridor so expect lots of goals from turnovers. Hawthorn are nearly at full strength and despite two consecutive losses they should be too strong for The Demons. Prediction. Hawks by less than 2 goals.

North Melbourne v St Kilda. The saints finally got their mojo back last week and North also recorded a good win. While North have been excellent against their peers they have struggled against the top sides and it's hard to see this game being any different. North lose Macmillan while the Saints lose Gardiner. In a rare fit of daring, Ross Lyon is blooding a kid by the name of Luke Miles. While I would like to make a case for North I find myself struggling. They are a gallant, well coached side but not up to this challenge. Prediction. Saints by plenty.

AFL proposes changes to Laws of the Game

Its that time of the year for Adrian Anderson and co to puff up their chests and muck around with our great game. So I thought I would cast a Fang eye over the proposals.

1. Restricting interchange by one of the following methods:

(a) Three interchange players and one substitute player

(b) Two interchange players and two substitute players

(c) Cap of 80 interchanges per match (including changes at breaks)

Fang says (cool I'm talking about myself in the third person): If there was to be a change, I think option (a) is the best. I thought I was keen on capping, but I don't really believe the AFL BS about injuries happening more due to the speed of the game. I would think that if you have players that are exhausted playing they are more likely to do soft tissue injuries. But heck, I'm no Dr. Fang.

I'm undecided about substitutes because I see examples all the time where a team overcomes the adversity of being a man (Pies v Geelong) or 2 (Hawks v Geelong in the 08 GF) down.

OK. I'm actually making a call. No change!

2. Length of game: adjust the timing of quarters to keep the average length between 29-30 minutes

Fang says: Why? Who cares if a game is a tiny bit longer. This is pure BS and Fang won't be happy if it gets through.

3. Advantage rule: player not umpire decides if there is an advantage (as per 2010 NAB Cup trial)

Fang says: YES! I love the idea of making players more responsible for their actions and choices instead of counting on the umpire to fix their bad decisions. It also means the umpires can no longer be involved in those contentious, ambiguous decisions like calling the ball back when the was no advantage.

4. Boundary umpires pay free kicks for holding and high contact at stoppages (as per 2010 NAB Cup trial)

Fang says: Damn straight! This is a really good idea, because I'm sick of seeing dominant mids being groped, grappled and held in contests. Bump, block and corral, but don't grab them. This will mean that more angles are seen. Big thumbs up.

5. Free kick against player who drags ball under opponent (as per 2010 NAB Cup trial)

Fang says: Absolutely! Ping the little mongrels that try and sneak a free. This is no different to diving in my book.

6. Rough conduct (shepherd): make consistent with head down over the ball rule so that a player who shepherds is guilty of a reportable offence if he makes forceful contact to the head or neck, unless the contact was caused by circumstances outside the control of the shepherding player

Fang says: Yep. If you are going to make the head sacrosanct, do it properly. And whilst their at it work out what head high contact means at the match review panel. What is David Hille, the friggen golden child?

7. Scoring system: If a ball hits the posts inside the goal-scoring area and goes through, it remains a goal. If a ball hits the posts inside the point-scoring area and goes through, it remains a point

Fang says: Whilst most of the other ideas seem at least thought out, this is just a reactive piece of AFL BS tacked on because some goal umpires made a couple of bad calls. DON'T MESS WITH ONE THING THAT DIFFERENTIATES OUR GAME FROM ANYTHING ELSE. Idiots...

For the full article go:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/100109/default.aspx

AFL Review Round 19

So what did our guest previewer/reviewer Gaz think about the weekend?

Essendon d Carlton

Well the weekend started poorly for my tips with Carlton bouncing back and cleaning up the bombers. Whatever hope Essendon might have had, they blew away early with poor kicking. Despite getting a fair bit of help from the umpires the bombers were never in it, with no answer to Waite and Garlett. I’ve discovered that I was right a couple a weeks ago – Essendon are crap. Nice to see that Carlton are assembling a nice collection of scumbags - I’m not sure who I hate most Carrazzo or Joseph, but then again there’s always Robinson.

Sydney Swans d Hawthorn

This was a tip that I considered changing – however I’m glad that I decided to stick with the swans. How Sydney can play that well after being so pathetic against Melbourne two weeks ago is beyond me. I guess the ex-Hawks in the team were keen to win, and Goodes was still going to be good, and it turned out to be an inspired move to play O’Keefe as a tag on Hodge. Unfortunately now the Hawks will be even more unsociable when they come up against Melbourne next week.

North d Fremantle

It would be tempting to say that Freo are shot, but you can never be too certain with anything about Freo. Bradley appeared to hold up ok in place of Sandilands, however the lift in confidence that the North players got when they saw the outs for the Dockers was enough to get them firing. Old hands like Harvey and Rawlings made sure that the Roos were never going to let a chance like this go by.

Collingwood d Geelong

This is the one that really hurt. Despite all the hype, I fell asleep early in the game it and woke up in the second quarter with the Cats five goals behind –that was a shock to the system but all was well again when Geelong put the foot down and got back in front by half time. After that I thought I’d better stay awake for the rest of the game. I did. But it turned out to be a nightmare. Geelong looked sore and slow. Better to lose now than September I guess, but the Cats would have lost a bit of their arrogance after this effort.

Brisbane d West Coast

I cannot believe this. It’s definitely time that they got a fresh supply of drugs over at the West Coast because they certainly shouldn’t have let a game like this one go. Brisbane showed signs of improvement last week and their line-up seemed to contain more of the no-nonsense, effective players that have served them well in the past. I don’t think the West Coast would be looking forward to any contact with John Worsfold this weekafter virtually guaranteeing him a wooden spoon. Jonathan Brown: if you read my preview last week please note that I didn’t mean for you to pull a goal out of your backside with five seconds to go and cost me a tip at this stage of the year.

StKilda d Port Adelaide

Thank goodness St.Kilda decided to reassert themselves, so that we don’t have to rely solely on Geelong to overcome the magpies in the finals. Looks like this was game in which everything went wrong for Port while St.Kilda found touch again. As the game wore on St.Kilda appeared to walk over the Power, whose rejuvenation was thoroughly squelched. I don’t think it’s going to help anyone’s coaching credentials to be leaving Brendan Goddard alone to rack up possessions. Looks like Reiwoldt continues to gain confidence and good to see St.Kilda showing a bit more attacking play.

Melbourne d Richmond

Richmond were the better team in the first half and could have held a handy lead at half time in a game that was tight but untidy. In the third quarter there were signs of the old Richmond creeping back, with costly turnovers allowing Melbourne to nudge their way ahead, although it could hardly be said that they were in control of the game. In the last quarter the Tigers drew level and as Melbourne supporters were preparing themselves for another disappointing loss, Richmond decided to go home, the Melbourne forward line opened up and the Dees ran away with the win. Richmond showed why they aren’t the league’s easy beats anymore and if they don’t keep Ben Cousins next year, I’d be happy for Melbourne to sign him up. Melbourne impressed because they were able to win a game even when they only played well in bursts. No need for Hawthorn to be too worried next week though – even though Brad Miller kicked 10 goals in the reserves.

Western Bulldogs d Adelaide Crows

Tight game with a big effort by the Dogs to overcome the Crows in wet conditions. This pretty much sets the top four at this stage and ensures that Adelaide miss the finals. Despite a couple a bad weeks, it can’t be forgotten that the Crows rolled Geelong over there recently, so the Bulldogs would have be happy to scrounge a win under the circumstances.

A special thanks to Gaz for his commentary on the weekends footy. Much appreciated.

AFL Preview Round 19

I've decided to give myself a couple of weeks break so asked renowned footy analyst, Gaz, to provide the review and preview for Round 19. He has a lot more credibility than I do, currently 3rd in the tipping comp with 94 some 2 off the pace and 6 ahead of me.

Essendon v Carlton
After descending into mediocrity, Carlton now face a team that have had their measure in recent times. Essendon looked awful up until a few weeks ago, when Hille and Fletcher, were missing but they’ve responded to a royal torching of their coach by putting together a couple of impressive performances. The Carlton players on the other hand have been torched by their coach this week and if Carlton are not with Essendon at quarter time it could be ugly. On the hand Carlton could also click and just as easily give the bombers a fair beating. Unfortunately with these two teams, someone has to win.

Essendon by 25.

Sydney Swans v Hawthorn
This will be a hard fought match. Sydney must win this to have a hope of staying in the eight. In past years they could stifle Hawthorn and I’m expecting that they’ll control Hawthorn’s space on the SCG. Hawthorn have lost their sting and without Rioli and with no prospect of a final four position they could be caught off guard.
Sydney by 8

North v Fremantle
There were probably some very lucky punters who got good odds on North earlier in the week. But then there was a massive ‘out’ for Fremantle - in more ways than one. No Sandilands, Tarrant and Ballantyne after the loss of Barlow and their team is shot. Playing away, together with the let down which follows a big win against West Coast will not help either. North are not a bad team and should end up in the eight at the end of the season. They will now be confident coming into this game.
North by 32.

Geelong v Collingwood
With so many good games this weekend, I expect the one that everyone is talking up will be a bit of a disappointment. I’ll be watching it though, because I enjoy watching Collingwood get belted. So many Collingwood players have been playing above their ability in recent weeks, but they will get a dose of reality this weekend. Looking forward to those images of Eddy grimacing and shaking his head.
Geelong by 49.

West Coast v Brisbane
Both teams will be desperate to win this game - having each only managed one win in the last ten rounds and with the wooden spoon staring them in the eye. The Brisbane team is taking shape again, with Fevola not being a significant loss on current form, and they could have easily rolled Melbourne last week. But I can’t see West Coast let this game slip in front of their home crowd. Expect Jonathan Brown to do everything humanly possible to get the Lions up against an undermanned West Coast defense but the West Coast have greater scoring power and a big home town advantage .
West Coast by 17

StKilda v Port Adelaide
Looks to be the most unevenly matched contest of the weekend. Port have played well over the last few weeks but, despite St.Kilda looking a bit unsettled in recent times, the Saints won’t be worried at Etihad. I would be surprised if there is much entertainment value, however it could be interesting to see how Matthew Primus tackles the saints’ style of play and the form and progressive reintegration of Nick Reiwoldt could be worth noting.
Saints by 29

Melbourne v Richmond
On paper, Melbourne should be able to cover Richmond fairly easily, including the much heralded Reiwoldt. Having said that, the dees have the unfailing ability to disappoint at any time. This year they lost games against North and West Coast to upset good runs of form and the Tigers don’t roll over so easily nowadays. Control of the centre clearances should give Melbourne’s developing forward line enough opportunities to score. Forget about their prospects of making the eight, Melbourne’s greatest impetus is coming from the fact that for the first time in years there are good players pushing for selection in the twos.
Melbourne by 58

Adelaide Crows v Western Bulldogs
The bulldogs are running into form now and have a top four spot well and truly in their sights, so it’s tempting to predict a convincing win over Adelaide. The crows have been disappointing over the last two weeks and are unusually erratic for an Adelaide team. I expect the crows to put up a bit of resistance, however the bulldogs should overrun them in the second half.
Bulldogs by 45.