Saints v Cats - This could be a classic. But I reckon it might just be a fizzer. The Cats have lost Chapman and he has been fantastic this year, although in recent games not as dominant. The Saints have lost Clarke (big deal). The Saints replaced him with Steven (even less of a deal), so I'm calling that a loss to the Saints. Chappy is joined by gap filler Hogan and replaced by Scarlett and Mooney. That my friends is a big plus.
I thought another way to look at it was benches: Saints - Eddy, Steven, McQualter, Stanley v Cats - Wojcinski, Hunt, West, Lonergan....hmm...2 premiership players, both in reasonable form. Cats will win. They are better, they have a better side, and the Saints haven't got Reiwoldt. Can't tip them. Cats by 34 in an anti-climax. Upset chance 30%
Swans v Pies -Running with the ins and outs theme, the Pies exchange like for like (thats all they tend to do anyway because most of the players are the same), but the Swans bring in two very important players in Bradshaw and Shaw, for some kids. The Pies own the Swans, but something feels different for me on this one. The Swans are playing differently, and I like it. But when you look at their results, they beat teams below them and lose to those above. They lost to all in the top 5 barring the Pies who they haven't played yet. So where do the Pies fit? Top 4. Based on that trend and also the owning issues I have to tip the Pies. I want to tip the Swans for the upset, but I can't do it. Pies by 24 upset chance 45%
Crows v Dees - This is another hard game. Dees haven't won forever in Adelaide. Adelaide is just dodgey. However what Adelaide has done is win at home the last 3 times they played there, and their formline since their first win, has been win, loss, win, loss, win, loss. They are due for a win and its at home. Since their winning streak ended the Dees are 1-1-5, and their win was by all of 1 point. Its hardly a flattering formline. Sure they took the Pies to a draw, but those two always seem to have tight games. Its at home for the Crows and the Dees formline at AAMI and of late is a concern, so I'm going the Crows by 26. Upset chance 35%