Thursday, June 3, 2010

AFL Preview Round 11

Richmond v St Kilda - I said it in the review last week, I'm not tipping Richmond this week due to the conditions last week. It doesn't help that their playing a Saints side that has discovered that its OK to kick some goals in a game of footy. Saints by 40.

Carlton v Melbourne - Big ins for both teams, makes this a tantalising game. Frankly its up there with Pies v Dogs for game of the round. However, Waite is the big one. He gives them a target, leadership and goals. He completes the forward line and makes it so much better. Melbourne have brought their gun kids in and the CHF in Bate which will help them too, but I'm going for the Blues who have a little more experience and class (give it time Dees you'll over take Carlton in coming years if you find a forward to complement Watts). Blues by 24

Adelaide v Fremantle - It would be very romantic to think Adelaide could win for Tyson Edwards in his last game, but what is really going for them other than that? Its in Adelaide? I think that's about it. Freo is firing and should pretty much dominate this game. Sandilands and Pav continue to be brilliant (I'm going early and saying their going to be the first joint winners of the Brownlow from the same club) and will steer Freo to an easy victory as the walls of the previous stable Crow house continue to crumble. Freo by 35

North Melbourne v Brisbane - A battle of the try hards. Brisbane has class at the top end but it fades quickly and has structural problems due to injury down back. BUT they're coming of a brilliant win. In contrast the Roos have promise, plenmty of it, but not this year and they are coming off the Freo trip where they got flogged. BUT its in Melbourne. Sigh. I think Brisbane is the better side but they have so many question marks over form and fitness its silly. I'll back them because they should be better. Lions by 20

West Coast v Geelong - Hmm, let me thi... Geelong by 60+

Sydney v Essendon - Essendon had a great win against the Dogs, the Swans had a small loss (but it would have been a huge steal had they won) against the Hawks. Swans are home at the SCG where they love it, but I wonder where they will get their goals and whether Essendons run will make a big difference. Being a small ground will they be able to run and carry that much? I'm going against the form line and tipping Sydney because they know their home ground and know how to play it. And if they play their game it will stop the quick movement that would let Essendon in. Swans by 12

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide - Big game for both teams. Port needs to arest a slide and will be helped by the return of Motlop and Gray and Brogan (late omission). Importantly all three will be rested (especially Brogan who is the key to beating the Hawks as he is a big strong quality ruckman and the Hawks hate them) from the Darwin game I've harped on about, however most of the rest will have played two very trying games (the second on a ground underwater) and I think the fatigue that they'll have will be a huge factor. The Hawks have lost Brown and Buddy, both have been in good form and the later is a star. Bateman is a big in though and will help to run a tired Port off their feet. Hawks have won 3 in a row and Port of lost 3, so I'm sticking with form and fatigue and going for the Hawks by 35.

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs - Huge game for both clubs. Pies coming off two losses including the shock against the Lions. Dogs all over the shop form wise, but come off a dreadful performance against Essendon. Both need the win to cement their spots. A loss for the Pies is 3 in a row and confidence going down hill, a loss for the Dogs means their form maintains the yo-yo and they get a further game away from the top 4 as it stands. Pies have brought back some experienced players, in Davis, Fraser, Brown, Medhurst and Lockyer. Some return from injury some from a spell in the magoos. On paper it makes them look better, but reality is everyone of those players is at the cross roads barring perhaps Medhurst. The Dogs however can't be as bad as they were last week. It will be a close one, but I'll go with my gut for the tie break. Dogs by 5

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