Friday, May 7, 2010

AFL Tips Round 7

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs - At the start of the season this game was a no contest. Right now this is a really interesting game. The Dogs should be desperate but the Dees have put in some excellent performances of late. On paper the Dogs look to have it over the Dees, and I expect them to win, but a Dees win would not surprise. Dogs by 24.

West Coast v Hawthorn - West Coast have not really shown too much, but I suppose not too much should be expected from a young developing side. However a lot should be expected of a side that won the premiership 2 seasons ago. The Hawks are in a deep dark place. Finals gone from the radar, and frankly no sign of hope of turning it around. The Eagles will dominate the ruck and that will really test the Hawks, but if the Hawks can deliver what they have been spruiking all week (in summary, some fire in the belly) they might scrape home. Eagles by 32.

Essendon v Port Adelaide - Whilst Essendon got a good win and it is at home, Port is doing just that bit better. On form you tip the Power, at home you would tip Essendon. Tough one, but I'm going for form, Port by 12.

Collingwood v North Melbourne - North have been excellent against sides that are in their peer group, but this is a whole new ball game. The Pies have been excellent against everyone. Upsets can happen (and judging by my tipping, happen frequently) and that is what is going to have to happen if the Roos are going to win, even with ex-Pie assistant coach Scott at the helm. Pies by 40.

Brisbane v Fremantle - This is one of the games of the round. If it was in Freo I wouldn't hesitiate in tipping Freo, but in Brisbane its a different proposition. Brisbane are coming off two losses and suddenly looking like one of the 'normal' top 8 teams, on top of that Merrett still out and Maguire's suspension suddenly make the backline a bit suss. Freo's only loss so far has been to St. Kilda PRI (Pre-Reiwoldt Injury) and it was a close game. But what about Freo's travel? Longest trip in the game, off a 6 day break, and have they ever actually won at the Gabba? Nup! 0 from 8. I Freo has the form, can they defeat Fev and Brown? Nup. Bris by 15.

Geelong v Sydney - For me, this one has the potential to be game of the round. Sydney are the new kid on the block versus the awesome power of Geelong. First Seaby went down, advantage Geelong, then Ottens went down, advantage Sydney. So it becomes Mumford v Blake in the battle of the middle, and Mumford is a much better ruckman. Whilst the names aren't as familiar, they have been important for the Swans; Hannebery and McGlynn have been important when they've played, and Bolton is a gun, so injuries are hurting the Swans. The home ground suits the Cats, and whilst I can easily see an upset I'll back the Cats by 6.

Adelaide v Richmond - Please let this be a draw! That would be too funny. But no, Adelaide is actually a better side than Richmond (ooo what a proclamation of the obvious) and it is at home. Tiges have a chance basically because Adelaide have been bad, but realistically the Crows can't lose this, can they? Crows by 30

St. Kilda v Carlton - St. Kilda has been far from convincing but neither have the Blues. What St Kilda does do better than most is force game tempo and the Blues are too immature as a group to be able to counter that. It'll be close because the Saints rarely blow anyone away, but they should win by roughly 18.

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